Tue, Oct 13 2009, 11:42 AM
Positive progress has been made all morning in the rates market, however as traders start to search for the lunch cart...stocks are heading higher and...
Tue, Oct 13 2009, 8:22 AM
The November FN 4.0 is trading +0-10 at 98-24 yielding 4.1307%. The November FN 4.5 is trading +0-09 at 101-06 yielding 4.3560%. The secondary market ...
Tue, Oct 13 2009, 5:16 PM
Over the summer we coined a new term based on the bouncy price action occurring in financial markets: CHOPATILITY. The lack of meaningful market direc...
Tue, Oct 13 2009, 4:13 PM
Heading into the 5pm "RATE SHEETS ARE UNCHANGED" marking period, rate sheet influential MBS coupons have given back a portion of their early afternoon...
Tue, Oct 13 2009, 2:54 PM
Rates rallied out the gate this morning. However, later in the day stocks began to recover losses and benchmark TSY and "rate sheet influential" MBS c...
Fri, Oct 9 2009, 10:14 AM
The FN 4.5 just made a new intraday low as the 10yr ticked over 3.32. The rate sheets we have seen were already noticeably worse than yesterday, howev...
Fri, Oct 9 2009, 8:38 AM
# After open weaker, MBS and tsy's are slightly improved AM
# Should clarify for tsy's "improved" only vs. overnight and early AM session. unchanged...
Fri, Oct 9 2009, 4:47 PM
AHHHH....the FN 4.5 fell off the map at the end of the day!!!!HAHA...this joke never gets old. DONT PANIC. TODAY IS NOTIFICATION DAY (dont panic about...
Fri, Oct 9 2009, 1:12 PM
The aftermath of yesterday's duration shedding which has carried over into today: LOTS OF REPRICES FOR THE WORSE AND HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES. The FN 4.0...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 11:18 AM
Despite better than expected jobless claims data, proof that business inventories are still contracting, improving retail sales, a weaker dollar, anot...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 8:33 AM
The 10yr TSY yield initially spiked higher after jobless claims data...however selling slowed as yields bounced at 3.21%.Rate sheet influential MBS co...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 6:54 PM
After the dust settled today, the 30yr bond was down over a point today whereas 4.5 MBS had only lost 3 ticks... There was plenty of sturm and drang ...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 4:11 PM
The FN 4.0 is currently -0-05 at 99-18 yielding 4.050%. The FN 4.5 is currently -0-02 at 101-27 yielding 4.275%. The secondary market current coupon i...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 1:23 PM
As markets are given some more time to digest and show their hand, the bond bears are doing battle with trade flow considerations we discussed in MBS ...
Thu, Oct 8 2009, 1:01 PM
30 year bond auction results...
* $12 BLN 29-YEAR 10-MONTH BONDS AT HIGH YIELD 4.009 PCT, AWARDS 27.53 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH
* BID-TO-COVER ...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 12:12 PM
Prepayment speeds determine, to a great extent, the timing of principle cash flows back to the MBS investor. If forecasts of prepayment speeds are mi...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 9:01 AM
The US dollar is recovering after taking a beating in currency markets yesterday. As the dollar gains against other currencies, oil and gold prices ar...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 5:00 PM
When last week's NFP hit, the massive rally of the day before was confirmed. Volume was as high as it has been in a long time on both days. As you c...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 4:06 PM
In NASCAR the GREEN flag signals the start or resumption of the race. A GREEN flag tells drivers to floor it! In the bond market, GREEN on the board m...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:34 PM
OK, the auction of the 10yr re-opening was fantastic... In case you missed the results or were otherwise in need of a bit more explanation as to thei...
Wed, Oct 7 2009, 1:01 PM
* $20 BLN 9-YR 10-MO NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 3.210 PCT, 12.77 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH
* BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.01, NON-COMP BIDS $41.9 MLN
* PRIMAR...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 12:21 PM
The nitty gritty you need to take from this post:
* TSY supply/auctions, a lack of econ data, and the stock lever are influencing mortgage rate...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 8:45 AM
Good Morning. Prices of "Rate Sheet Influential" MBS coupons are marginally lower this morning as benchmark yields rise ahead of TSY auctions. An unex...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 5:02 PM
3.27 and 3.30 have proven to be pivotal technical price levels in 10yr tsy yields. After rallying last week, all eyes have been on these levels to se...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 3:51 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS coupons stuck to a tight price range today. The Federal Reserve and Asian accounts were aggressive buyers of FN 5.0s today...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:14 PM
One of our colleagues put it best a moment ago when he said: "looks like the market isn't moving much... Headed to lunch..."
Indeed after an excee...
Tue, Oct 6 2009, 1:00 PM
Bottom Line: not exceedingly strong, but not horrible. However, initial reaction in bond markets is to the downside. MBS are off a few ticks to 101-...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 11:42 AM
We've been talking more and more about the "paradigm shift" occurring in the broader markets. In general, mounting evidence suggests that the equitie...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 10:11 AM
ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Results-
* headline index at 50.9% versus 50.0 Consensus
* business activity index 55.1 in sept (consensus 51...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 8:29 AM
So Far This Am...
* Dollar Falls After G7 Meeting.
* "Strong Dollar" talk may have contributed to bond rallies last week
* MBS mostly...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 5:08 PM
TOMORROW! With today's lack of data and ultimately, movement, tomorrow's impending events trump today's actual events (or lack thereof...).
Ok, I ...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 3:33 PM
After getting pulled into a slightly higher range on late session stock strength, tsy's decided it would be best to go ahead and hold the line at prev...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 2:10 PM
Whether it's the fact that almost any trading session would seem anticlimactic after last week's tumult or whether it's a factor of relatively low vol...
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 1:07 PM
As far as outright price levels are concerned, there is not a high degree of panic warranted by current price levels as MBS are still above 101-20 and...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 10:28 AM
The rally one would expect to occur after weak labor market data....took place yesterday. Now the bond market is giving some of it back. After hittin...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 8:30 AM
SEPT NONFARM PAYROLLS -263,000 vs. CONSENSUS -180,000 vs. AUG -201,000 (PREV -216,000). WORSE THAN EXPECTED. Yesterday's bond market rally has been c...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 5:45 PM
With a nod to any Monty Python fans in the audience, I feel compelled to let you know that this weekly wrap will not be providing any sort of dairy de...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 4:17 PM
For the sake of continuity, here's an exceedingly brief update in order to fill the "MBS AFTERNOON" spot. AQ and I got caught up writing, editing, di...
Fri, Oct 2 2009, 2:51 PM
The immediate trader reaction to weak jobs data pushed the 10yr note yield from 3.18% all the way down to 3.10%. The precipitous fall in benchmark yi...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 11:51 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-11 at 101-19 yielding 4.3043%. The FN 4.0 is +0-15 at 99-15 yielding 4.0586%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.1446%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 8:45 AM
The 10yr TSY note yield has broken 3.27% resistance, leading "rate sheet influential" MBS prices higher.The FN 4.5 is +0-05 at 101-13 yielding 4.3275%...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 4:59 PM
Today has been unique. In recent weeks, rallies have taken us outside well-established trading ranges, but always with mitigating caveats or forthcom...
Thu, Oct 1 2009, 3:36 PM
Given our recent admonitions about waiting for NFP as the most important data event of the week, the directionality of today's rally would lead us to ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 11:53 AM
The recent bond market rally has led the yield curve and benchmark TSYs into numerous resistance levels that, if broken, might imply a general shift i...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 8:50 AM
The AM So Far...
* ADP worse than expected at -254k
* GDP Better than expected at -.7 vs. consensus of -1.2
# Bonds Initial reaction DOW...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 5:04 PM
Maybe the markets will find some sort of impetus to get directional tomorrow, but so far this week, Monday's extension of Friday's rally merely set us...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 3:32 PM
After hitting an intraday high of 101-16 this morning, an unfriendly trend channel developed and the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low print of 101-04. ...
Wed, Sep 30 2009, 1:03 PM
Plainly and simply, prices are at their lowest point of the day. And though this STILL leaves MBS over 101-00 on the 4.5 and the 10yr is still under ...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 11:36 AM
September Consumer Confidence Survey data registered a 53.1 read vs. the consensus estimate of 57.0 and the previous 54.5 (revised from 54.1). Followi...
Tue, Sep 29 2009, 8:57 AM
Good Morning. The rates market is giving back a portion of yesterday's gains. Stock futures are higher. The 10yr TSY note yield is trading near 3.33%....
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