Fri, Jul 24 2009, 3:52 PM
These are all things you will not have to worry about on an afternoon such as this, plagued by not one, but three of the accelerants stoking soporific...
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 1:27 PM
Trading flows are slow as market participants make an early attempt at the exits. The 10 yr TSY yield has been in a 2bp range all day while the FN 4.5...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 10:53 AM
As stocks have kicked into overdrive with the Dow cresting 9000 and the S&P flirting with 970's, the 10yr Tsy has backed up to the 3.6's and 4.5's are...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 9:36 AM
The S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ have all opened to the upside. As stocks futures ticked higher, the long end of the yield curve (TSYs) began to show weaknes...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 8:38 AM
* Jobless Claims rose to 554k from 522k last week. Estimates called for 560k.
* Continuing claims continued to decrease (from 6.32 to 6.225 mln)...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 5:22 PM
As reactions to the economic data gradually improved and were compounded by next week's tsy supply being announced at $115 bln versus an expected $111...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 3:04 PM
Illustrating the buying and selling behavior of market participants at specific price points. What is currently considered cheap? What price levels ar...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 1:52 PM
Though 99-19 has provided great support all day, in the past few minutes we've broken through by a big enough margin that not only may lenders be cons...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 12:13 PM
Slow trading flows in the secondary mortgage market are not stopping some lenders from passing through a few more bps onto rate sheets this morning. W...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 8:42 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* Ben catalyzed technical rally in Tsy's and MBS
* Stocks gained as well with SandP now over 950 two days in a row
...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 6:16 PM
In MBS LUNCH I wrote that a feeling risk aversion was beginning to set in over the marketplace as overvalued stocks were showing signs that the rally...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 1:40 PM
ALERT alert: volume also nonexistent in the TSY market...I mean this has turned into a real snoozer as traders happily.....WAIT AND SEE!!! That said l...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:37 AM
This MBS rally is not a function of greater demand for mortgage-backs, it is not a factor of a rejuvenated bid side mortgage buying presence...the pri...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 8:31 AM
Last Session Recap
* Medium Sized rally
* Volume was pathetic
* Stocks broke serious upside ceilings
* MBS failed to break their...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 5:46 PM
Moving on to a longer view, we are back above some scarier historical levels, and through a recent triangle denoted by the teal lines. Although today...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 3:40 PM
Activity in the TSY and MBS market has teetered out as the afternoon has wore on. Although earlier we noted some profit taking in the fuller side of t...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 1:01 PM
There have been broad based reprices for the better in the primary mortgage market. Mortgage rates are now under 5.00% for the most qualified customer...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 11:19 AM
Last week the steeper yield curve forced prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons markedly lower. For the week the FN 4.5 moved from $100-19 to ...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 8:33 AM
Friday's Recap
* Better data and earnings led stocks up and fixed income down almost all week.
* over 2 points lost in 10yr, about a point...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 5:10 PM
Though the low volume seen today did give way to a somewhat choppier than normal session, the end result for Tsy's and MBS was positive with the 10yr ...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 2:28 PM
"Market Profile is a graphical organization of price and time information. Market Profile displays price on the vertical axis and time on the horizont...
Mon, Jul 20 2009, 1:25 PM
Since 1pm, the 10yr Tsy yield has fallen appreciably to test Friday's intraday lows at 3.59. Though the drop coincides with the completion of the 3 m...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 12:52 PM
Bill Berliner's views on a number of issues, including 1) a story that homeowners accepting modifications are seeing a substantial drop in their credi...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:02 AM
Although FN 4.5 prices were able to hold steady for a moment, the extent to which the market shifted its sentiment (volume spike) forced traders to ad...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 8:41 AM
At the open the 10 yr is bouncing around between 3.53 and 3.57. Although it has been a slow start to the trading session, we are seeing some signs of ...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 5:17 PM
More Thoughts On Recent Market Dynamics In A Nutshell
This week saw what looked like a massive correction for MBS which turned out simply to be a t...
Fri, Jul 17 2009, 2:45 PM
Interesting happenings going on in MBS market today. The yield curve is noticeably steeper, which would usually force "rate sheet influential" MBS inv...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 10:47 AM
Traders have pushed the 10 yr TSY note back to yesterday's 830AM (pre data) yields indicating the market is looking to test the strength of yesterday'...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 8:28 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* Snowball Selling
* All Data unfriendly, higher than expected CPI leads the charge
* lost almost a full point in 4...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 6:00 PM
we'll skip the more detailed enumeration of tomorrow's potentialities and the beautiful beautiful charts I know you're all so fond of, so that some ad...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 4:31 PM
Not much to report in MBSland. FN 4.5 prices went sideways in the second half of the session...RANGE BOUND. On the bright side, as the 10 yr TSY yield...
Thu, Jul 16 2009, 1:38 PM
Into the afternoon, MBS have continued in a reasonably tight range of gains with the 4.5 now reaching up near 99-20, an 18 tick recovery from yestered...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 12:18 PM
REPRICES FOR WORSE LIKELY AS S&P MAKES NEW INTRADAY HIGHS AND YIELD CURVE STEEPENS. CURRENTLY 10 YR YIELD AT 3.58% AND FN 4.5 AT 99-08. THIS IS WELL B...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 10:35 AM
The bond market is definitely in defensive mode as equities blasted through several technical resistance levels this morning. Consequently there was s...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 8:30 AM
June CPI
* Headline CPI = +0.7% (consensus = +0.6%)
* CORE CPI (excludes food/energy) = +0.2% (consensus = +0.1%)
* Year over year st...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 5:43 PM
Fixed Income exhibited real weakness today. Benchmark yields were higher, volatility ticked up again, "rate sheet influential MBS" prices fell 23 tick...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 4:07 PM
Bullet Points
* 2's/10's, steeper, 2.603
* Late stock strength pushing bonds lower.
* MBS and treasuries book close at 3pm hangs on t...
Wed, Jul 15 2009, 1:19 PM
Today's unwelcome (but not entirely mystifying) selling has subsided for a moment as several markets ping some top tier technical price levels...
M...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 10:30 AM
In MBS world volume is apathetic at best. Yield spreads are slightly wider as the FN 4.5 is feeling the effects of a steeper yield curve and higher o...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 8:26 AM
Last Session Recap
* lost some on limited data
* stock rally hurt tsy's
* tsy spending gave pause
* earning's season buzz mounti...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 5:47 PM
If it seems that each new day brings a new fork in the road for MBS prices that reflects the theme of "waiting for guidance." As discussed, the recon...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 3:36 PM
Interest rate option volatility has increased a few bps this afternoon...leading to lower TSY note prices and higher benchmark interest rates (some pr...
Tue, Jul 14 2009, 1:03 PM
The range of MBS prices continues to moderate with lower highs and higher lows. Whether you want to call this a triangle or a wedge or a wedgy triang...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 12:59 PM
OH NO...stocks are rallying!!!!!Since stocks are trading higher on the day you would expect Treasuries and MBS to be selling off right? Nope. Not Happ...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 10:37 AM
The FN 4.5 was choppy early on in the session, but has since found a range and is now taking directional guidance from the gyrations of the yield curv...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 7:53 AM
Risk Aversion consumed the marketplace this week. Treasury yields fell as stocks weakened. The price of oil plummeted and the dollar lost ground on se...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 5:11 PM
This morning kicked off with everyone's favorite equities analyst Meredith Whitney out with some bullish comments on earnings. This set a positive to...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 3:19 PM
Lenders that haven't already reprice for the worse may now be inclined to do so as we are at the lowest point of the last two sessions by a decent mar...
Mon, Jul 13 2009, 2:40 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS have been jolted from their range by a higher stock indices and a rise in benchmark yields. The FN 4.5 has fallen to 100-10...
Fri, Jul 10 2009, 12:46 PM
Suddenly, nominal profit taking accelerated to the lows of the day... When "lows of the day" occur, there is always a chance that lenders will repric...
MBS Market Alerts
