Fri, Sep 18 2009, 1:22 PM
Volume is low and trading is slappity choppity sloppity. The 10yr JUST broke intraday resistance and the chances are increasing of a reprice for the ...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 12:17 PM
The secondary mortgage market is in cruise control...the Fed continues to provide 2x liquidity for any originator looking to sell, yield spreads are a...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 8:33 AM
After 830am data, stock futures are lower. TSY futures are higher. Cash market 10 yr note hit 3.50% before falling back to 3.47%....in futures 3.50 co...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 6:39 PM
About half a facemelter in both MBS and tsy's today as MBS got half a point and tsy's another 4-6 ticks beyond that. As AQ pointed out in the previou...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 3:57 PM
Mortgages continue to trade well in both price (yay for loan officers) and in relative value (yield spreads tighter and tighter...OAS negative) This r...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 2:10 PM
As stocks continued a trend of selling that began shortly before the noon hour, bonds have rallied with MBS reaching up to familiar levels. The 4.5 i...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 11:51 AM
As we discussed earlier, the AM data crushed the bond market sending MBS from 100-26 to 100-08. For those without calculators or excellent mental mat...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 9:33 AM
Stocks are loving the anti-deflation data this AM. At the 930 opening bell, stocks are making new 2009 highs again...and the bond market is suffering....
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 8:41 AM
Following the data, the 10yr yield rose, but quickly fell back to 3.39, but failed to test morning yield lows.The FN 4.5 fell (price) after the data, ...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 7:36 PM
Although the rates market put up a good fight today, in the end there were just too many factors working against our cause (lower mortgage rates!). In...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 4:01 PM
The post 3pm trade in MBS and Tsy's is showing it's characterstic signs of waning participation as volatility and volume decrease. But unlike some ot...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 2:31 PM
Chopatility is chop-chop-chopping away at our level of confidence regarding the possibility of you making it through the rest of the day without seein...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 11:03 AM
Prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons have bounced around a chopatile range this morning. We took a nose dive after 830 data, then started re...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 8:31 AM
830 data was not bond friendly. PPI higher than expected, retail sales and NY Manufacturing better than anticipated. The 10 yr TSY note yield rose fro...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 5:03 PM
The day closed out remarkably well considering the data this AM, it's immediate effects, and the conclusions that could have easily been drawn after c...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 3:53 PM
Despite better than expected econ data (plus Bernanke's comments), rallying stocks, a weaker dollar, more expensive oil, and gold moving back into fou...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 1:00 PM
After falling abruptly this AM on better than expected economic data, the range in MBS and tsy's moderated into levels that left fannie 4.5's down onl...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 11:42 AM
Much rumor is circulating around the investment community that the US-Chinese trade war issue has been a money moving "event" this morning. I am not s...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 8:41 AM
So far this AM
* Long end the of yield curve not doing so well with 10's down 12 ticks (3.39 yield) and 30 yr down 26 ticks (yield 4.23)
*...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 5:02 PM
It might as well have been a Friday... The characteristic pattern of gains in the AM turning into linear losses by the close is all too familiar. At...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 3:52 PM
The empty data calendar combined with "already been heard" Fed speak plus a little "nothing new" from President Obama created a VERY SLOW trading envi...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 2:05 PM
There is such a lack of relevant data today that all we really have to discuss at the moment are today's various speeches. Most recently, Richmond Fe...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 12:13 PM
MBS trading is slow moving this morning as participants are generally focused on the settlement process and the inescapable inclination to honor the l...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 8:41 AM
MBS trading slow during settlement. Benchmark big brothers are leading MBS prices higher. Expect MBS to lag TSY rally...especially with prices and rel...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 4:59 PM
At the end of trading today, the 10 yr note was up a full 100% more than 4.5 MBS!!! Then again, that was only a 2 tick gain in the 10yr versus the 1 ...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 2:58 PM
Cue the Friday music. You know the song... The one where low volume, liquidity, and overall participation precipitate price movements that outly a m...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 11:20 AM
The reprice alert siren has been turned off. The FN 4.5 bounced at 100-28 and is now currently trading at 101-00...still off the highs of the day. Cho...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 10:53 AM
Benchmark yields are moving higher as stocks start to reverse early session losses. After reaching price levels not visited since May, the FN 4.5 has...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 8:47 AM
US Trade Deficit at $31.96bn. Wider than expected deficit of $27.35. The bond market reacted to worse than expected trade imbalance. The 10 yr TSY not...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 5:24 PM
Stocks and bonds rallied hand in hand today after a better than expected 30yr bond auction. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to say a "not worse ...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 4:01 PM
I am going to open up this post with a bit of insight from the lock desk. During the settlement process, the odds of one encountering an unexplained r...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 2:12 PM
Range-Finder: n. eng. /rnj fndr/ : 1. MBS Commentary 2009. The state or phenomenon of MBS price levels moderating into an increasingly narrow range fo...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 1:04 PM
* 4.238 high yield
* 85% at high
* Bid to cover 2.92
* indirect just under 50%
Market likes it so far, all sides.
we'll give thi...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 11:56 AM
It has been another chopatile morning in the secondary mortgage market. Lenders have published pricing and guess what...yeh...pretty much the same as...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 8:59 AM
Stocks mixed overnight. Hang Seng, NIKKEI, TOPIX, KOSPI lower. Shanghai, DAX, CAC, FTSE all higher. Dollar Index mostly unchanged. NYMEX crude more ex...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 5:37 PM
Except for a relatively short window of time, today was largely uneventful. Yeah, there were some fairly violent swings but those occurred in a compa...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 3:42 PM
After a little post auction chopatility, the FN 4.5 MBS coupon has recovered and is trading back in the green. This morning I asked readers to share p...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 1:16 PM
Chopitility is a way of life after auctions. And though the charts below tell a much different story than the wider view 2-day charts, it's something...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 1:02 PM
10 yr Auction Results
* 2.77 Bid To Cover
* High Yield 3.51
* 78% taken at high
* Indirect Bid at $ 11 bln good for 55% indirect...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 11:44 AM
The morning content theme has centered around the notion that SUMMER IS OVER, TIME FOR MARKETS TO GET BACK TO WORK. Well, although that is indeed the ...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 8:37 AM
Overseas equity markets higher overnight...SHANGHAI, HANG SENG, NIKKEI, TOPIX, KOSPI, DAX, CAC, FTSE. Dollar weaker, Oil richer, Gold over $1,000. TS...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 5:00 PM
Anyone catch the reference to the "secret line" on Friday? I know most are eager to get out for the weekend, so by the time a closing commentary make...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 3:37 PM
In after hours trading, the FN 4.5 has found stable ground near the middle of its 2 day range. MBS trading volume was below average today. Originator...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 1:23 PM
Immediately following the auction, it would have been hard to pinpoint any significant data release simply by watching market prices for a reaction. ...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 1:03 PM
results for auction of $38 bln of 3 yr notes
* high yield at 1.487%
* 54.6% of bids at high yield
* median yield at 1.43, right with ...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 12:26 PM
What's good for stocks is bad for bonds. Stocks are rallying and bonds are selling. Reprices for the worse are possible. The range should still modera...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 10:59 AM
The FN 4.5 has held a stable range after a bit of early morning volatility. Currently we are in a holding pattern right in the middle of the recent ra...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 8:35 AM
The knee jerk reaction to the headline was a drop in stock futures and rising TSY futures. However, the market quickly changed course...stock futures ...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 5:47 PM
I'm lamenting a wasted Friday... No point in sticking around today if you were paying attention up until NFP today. Everything should have been lock...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 4:02 PM
After bouncing off this AM's lows of 100-13 for the second time today, prices have formed a perfect triangle into the close--characteristic of so many...
MBS Market Alerts
