Fri, Jul 11 2014, 12:04 PM
Bond markets have been stronger today, and have carved out a linear trend of improvements from morning price levels. Interestingly enough, this stren...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 7:42 AM
There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the week's auction cycle is already wrapped up. While there are two Fed speakers...
Fri, Jul 11 2014, 5:30 PM
Treasuries and MBS walked a cautious path to the exits today, staying perfectly inside the middle of yesterday's trading range. The overnight sessi...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 12:27 PM
Core European debt markets set the tone for the overnight session. That means German Bunds big rally helped US Treasury yields move lower overnight...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 7:39 AM
Let's do the same thing we did yesterday and get the daily analysis out of the way in one paragraph so I can wrap up the "NFP Reflections." Yesterday...
Thu, Jul 10 2014, 4:30 PM
Eurozone contagion made an appearance today in much the same way it did for nearly all of 2010-2012. This time around, it's Portugal's Banco Espiri...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 12:09 PM
While MBS have made up some ground compared to Treasuries over the past few hours, they're generally underperforming this week. Fannie 3.5s are down ...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 7:55 AM
We'll get the normal "day ahead' stuff out of the way in a paragraph today because I spent most of my writing time on something I otherwise wasn't goi...
Wed, Jul 9 2014, 5:16 PM
While the overnight session was slightly weaker and the 10yr auction made things that much worse, the day's main event was undoubtedly the FOMC Minute...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 11:54 AM
With today continuing yesterday's tradition of offering very little by way of scheduled events, bond markets must look elsewhere for cues. Actually, ...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 7:42 AM
"The range" is admittedly an overused term, and it requires constant contextual clarification. While various examples offer convenient connections be...
Tue, Jul 8 2014, 4:38 PM
Market participation was pathetic yesterday--the lightest session since at least April. Today was merely "average" but that's a huge improvement over...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 12:40 PM
From Thursday's latest levels, Fannie 3.5s are 3/32nds higher in price, compared to a 9/32nds gain in 10yr Treasuries (also in price). That means Tre...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 7:32 AM
On the whole, 2014 has certainly seen a narrow range in rates, but within that broader range, we've still been able to witness distinct trends. For...
Mon, Jul 7 2014, 4:48 PM
Today's session barely had a pulse. Weather is nice. It's the day after a 3-day weekend, and there was nothing meaningful on the event calendar. ...
Thu, Jul 3 2014, 12:05 PM
Inexplicable bond market resilience isn't always about the Eurozone, but sometimes it is, and today is one of those times.
In order to have inexpli...
Thu, Jul 3 2014, 7:31 AM
There is so much on tap today per hour of open market time. It may be some sort of record. Not on the economic calendar below, but still potentially...
Thu, Jul 3 2014, 3:23 PM
There's not much left to be said or concluded in terms of today's events (because it's a short day, and there simply hasn't been much time between now...
Wed, Jul 2 2014, 12:17 PM
Referring to the morning's weakness as exclusively "ADP-inspired" is a bit of an overstatement . Bond markets have generally been trading in the dir...
Wed, Jul 2 2014, 7:42 AM
Thursday approaches, bringing with it a glut of significant economic data, an ECB Announcement, and an early close in observance of Independence Day. ...
Wed, Jul 2 2014, 6:36 PM
Love it or hate it, ADP data matters when it's as far from consensus as it was this morning (otherwise, it's been having less and less of an impact). ...
Tue, Jul 1 2014, 12:10 PM
Simply put, there's been a moderate, but pervasive amount of bond market weakness intact ever since yesterday's quarter-end trading wrapped up. As we...
Tue, Jul 1 2014, 7:46 AM
With the end of the month/quarter out of the way, bond markets may now have more capacity to tune in to the week's economic data. But when quarter-en...
Tue, Jul 1 2014, 4:46 PM
One theme dominated the day: changing of the guard between June/Q1 trading and July/Q2. Out with the old, in with the slightly less old, but not fund...
Mon, Jun 30 2014, 12:05 PM
While the overnight sessions was relatively uneventful, the first half of the domestic session has seen some decent volatility . After starting out ...
Mon, Jun 30 2014, 7:27 AM
Pound for pound, this is one of the busiest weeks of the year . There are relevant economic reports every day as well as Fed speakers and the last t...
Mon, Jun 30 2014, 3:50 PM
Considering that today's trading range wasn't meaningfully wider than Friday's AND that closing prices look like they'll fall inside Friday's range, t...
Fri, Jun 27 2014, 12:33 PM
Heading into today, we were prepared for there to be no particular rhyme or reason behind market movements. Money managers are primarily focused on...
Fri, Jun 27 2014, 7:42 AM
The actual end of the quarter isn't until Monday, but it's not uncommon for market participants to get end-of-quarter (or end-of-month for that matter...
Fri, Jun 27 2014, 5:54 PM
For a third straight day, bond markets improved into the domestic session and gave back gains in the afternoon (chart below). Of those three days, to...
Thu, Jun 26 2014, 12:10 PM
As we discussed in The Day Ahead , bond markets were sending signals that they were embarking on a trend of improvement. The caveat was that those s...
Thu, Jun 26 2014, 7:42 AM
In at least 2 discussions on MBS Live yesterday, I referenced the current technical landscape in a clever way by saying the biggest risk to the analys...
Thu, Jun 26 2014, 5:55 PM
For a second day, bond markets and/or mortgage rates (take your pick) frolicked outside the walls of the castle. In this case, that castle is "the ra...
Wed, Jun 25 2014, 11:56 AM
It's been a nice, straightforward morning for bond markets. Data was much weaker than expected and bonds rallied as a result.
That said, it's not...
Wed, Jun 25 2014, 7:42 AM
Bond market participation is such a big and complex thing that the true nature of cause and effect can only be guessed at. Some guesses are more edu...
Wed, Jun 25 2014, 5:31 PM
If you happened to look at MBS/Treasuries around 8:35am, the day was looking pretty great. But that ended up being the best of it, and a long, slow s...
Tue, Jun 24 2014, 11:42 AM
Technically, MBS and Treasuries are both in positive territory when compared to yesterday's closing levels. That said, those closing levels were the ...
Tue, Jun 24 2014, 7:51 AM
While tomorrow arguably hosts the week's most important economic report, today wins in terms of sheer volume and variety. We get almost every flavor...
Tue, Jun 24 2014, 4:33 PM
As has been necessary since the beginning of June, any volatility we experience during the day is forced to occur within 'the range.' That was the ca...
Mon, Jun 23 2014, 12:28 PM
MBS have managed to hold on to most of their gains seen on Friday, even after Existing Home Sales came in stronger than expected. Prices were highe...
Mon, Jun 23 2014, 7:39 AM
One of the biggest stories of the past 3 months has been the big miss in first quarter GDP followed by a big downward revision leaving growth at -1.0%...
Mon, Jun 23 2014, 5:48 PM
Behind the scenes, bond market activity was very light today--not uncommon for Mondays and most Friday's during the summer months. In the morning, th...
Fri, Jun 20 2014, 12:23 PM
First thing's first. "Boring" isn't necessarily bad when rates are staying fairly close to their lowest levels in a year. That said, could the pas...
Fri, Jun 20 2014, 7:42 AM
As bond markets continue to trade in the longest, narrowest sideways trend of the year (2.57-2.66 closing yields since 6/3), and as they continue to d...
Fri, Jun 20 2014, 5:03 PM
"The Range" can vary depending on whether we're talking about long or short term. These days, it refers to the a bit of both. The short term range s...
Thu, Jun 19 2014, 12:53 PM
Bond markets began the day in stronger territory as the overnight session brought a small amount of post-FOMC follow-through. Realistically, when an ...
Thu, Jun 19 2014, 7:43 AM
Today's economic data--like many other days in the history of financial markets-- COULD certainly matter. Whether or not it does, depends on where i...
Thu, Jun 19 2014, 5:10 PM
Morning trading was a linear and logical continuation of yesterday's rally. That's not to say bond markets were obviously destined to rally yesterday...
Wed, Jun 18 2014, 11:57 AM
The morning has been exceedingly quiet so far, with no volatility to speak of. MBS and Treasuries were both approaching the weakest edge of their r...
Wed, Jun 18 2014, 7:48 AM
Every other Fed meeting, we get the full meal deal of FOMC related events, which include the economic projections and the Fed Chair press conference i...
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