Mon, Sep 22 2014, 5:36 PM
Today's session ended up being much like last Thursday's in that a narrow trading range persisted all day and never made a convincing attempt to mov...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 12:52 PM
Both MBS and Treasuries are back in line with trading levels from the close of business on Tuesday. Today's gains have been moderate during the domes...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's session was too close to call as far as being a positive or negative epilogue to Wednesday's FOMC day. While it's always positive to not ...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 4:00 PM
Most of the conceptual analysis of today's action was already covered in the Mid-Day . There were no significant developments into the afternoon, bu...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 12:39 PM
Occasionally the days after FOMC Announcements can can offer more volatility and faster-paced movement than that seen on the day of the announcement. ...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 7:32 AM
With the Fed-related events out of the way, we'll finally get to see how much they mattered. Yesterday's initial market reaction--while negative--was...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 5:01 PM
Today turned out to be spooky, or at least 'uninformative' from a market-watching standpoint. Here we have an active trading day following a hotly-...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 12:35 PM
Bond markets were slightly stronger again overnight but in the context of the past few weeks, we're essentially flat for the past 3 days. This consol...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 7:24 AM
Today brings the biggest set of events in weeks, perhaps months. Starting at 2pm, the FOMC (aka "the Fed") releases it's official policy statement an...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 5:19 PM
As far as Fed days go, this one was pretty tame. That's especially true if we consider the amount of hype and anxiety associated with this particular...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July
suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On
balan...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 12:18 PM
It's generally been another uneventful day in the shadow of tomorrow's FOMC events. There just hasn't been anything on the calendar or any unschedu...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 7:33 AM
What are we even supposed to do with today? Whether from the standpoint of market participant or market watcher, there's precious little to care ab...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 4:30 PM
Bond markets had their ups and downs today, but ultimately, none of it really matters in the bigger picture. Whether we look at where trading levels ...
Mon, Sep 15 2014, 12:13 PM
Treasuries began the overnight session moving to even higher yields than those seen on Friday afternoon. Just after 4:30am, German Bunds put in a str...
Mon, Sep 15 2014, 7:27 AM
As Treasury yields and mortgage rates spiraled rapidly higher over the past two weeks, 2014's steady trend toward lower rates quickly strayed into v...
Mon, Sep 15 2014, 4:49 PM
Japan was out for a holiday today and US markets might as well have been. Apart from the first few minutes of the domestic session, today was one of...
Fri, Sep 12 2014, 12:01 PM
Throughout the week, we've had our eyes on the long term downtrend in rates stretching back to the beginning of 2014. It provided some context for th...
Fri, Sep 12 2014, 7:31 AM
I hate the terms 'overbought' and 'oversold.' At best, they cause confusion, and at worst they serve as the basis for faulty decision-making among ...
Fri, Sep 12 2014, 4:35 PM
Actually, the last 2 weeks have been ugly for bond markets. It's almost as if a switch was flipped as soon as September began.
Just when ...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 12:05 PM
After 8 days in throes of volatility and weakness, bond markets are finally catching a small break today. For now, it's no more than a half-hearted...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 7:31 AM
When we talk about the 'longer term trend' these days, we're referencing the slow and steady improvements for bond markets that began in early 2014. ...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 4:26 PM
It was a bit of a cruel session for bond markets as the day started out in stronger territory only to sell off with less than 2 hours to go. After 8 ...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 12:41 PM
Fannie 3.5s are down 10/32nds from yesterday's latest levels. Keep in mind that today's prices reflect October coupons whereas yesterday's were based...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 7:33 AM
Yesterday's mid-day commentary did a good job of summing up the general malaise in bond markets. Revisit it HERE if you like, but here's the impo...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 5:00 PM
Whiel we could see some sort of technical bounce or a data-driven consolidation of recent trading patterns, bond markets have generally been on a tear...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 12:13 PM
Negative momentum has been pervasive in September so far. Even the brief rally after Friday's jobs report failed to get yields back down to Thursday'...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 7:39 AM
September has been decidedly negative for bond markets so far, and largely without any regard for economic data and events. Given that 'month-end' ...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 4:40 PM
NOTE: Tonight is "the roll" for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS. That means that September coupons will be done trading at the end of business tod...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 12:43 PM
Monday continues to look like a mere shadow of the trading days at the end of last week. For example, Fannie 3.5 MBS have been in a range between 1...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 7:33 AM
Compared to last week, we have fewer potential market movers on the calendar in the week ahead. But that doesn't make it any less important. If anyt...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 4:37 PM
Bond markets started the day in stronger territory, but well-within the range set by Friday's trading. Treasuries took cues from Europe amid limited ...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 12:20 PM
Treasuries and MBS dodged a bullet today in that a strong showing from the Employment Situation Report (aka "NFP" for the primary component: nonfarm...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 7:31 AM
Bond markets are vulnerable right now--perhaps more vulnerable than they've been for several months. During that time, they've taken on an air of n...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 5:05 PM
Some movies are interesting and dramatic in a way that real life tends not to be. This even applies to many TV series where the protagonist "solves" ...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 7:31 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) announcement hits at 7:45am this morning and ECB President Draghi does the usual press conference at 830am. With th...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 5:04 PM
Most every indication we've had from economic data in recent months has been that it just doesn't matter that much to bond markets. Treasuries, esp...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 1:00 PM
It's been a busy morning for bond markets, with lots of economic data as well as the European Central Bank Announcement and Press Conference. Several...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 12:40 PM
Today's entire trading session centers on one key event: an overnight announcement that a Ukraine Ceasefire had been agreed to by both 'sides.' Bond...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 9:11 AM
Yesterday marked the most abrupt day of selling in bond markets since the end of July. In some ways, it was a wake-up call as to the time of year, ...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 5:11 PM
In terms of interesting, singular market-moving events, only one thing happened today. It was at 4am that headlines came out suggesting a ceasefire b...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 12:54 PM
Bond markets had been setting up for the extended weekend by being cautious about getting caught on the wrong side of this week's trade. Consider the...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 7:25 AM
While the week ahead is shorter than normal thanks to Labor day, it's no less relevant. In fact, it's probably quite a bit more relevant than anyt...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 4:35 PM
Fannie 3.5s stayed inside a 4 tick (.125) range today despite a round of upbeat economic data at 10am and a clear trend toward higher yields in Trea...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 12:23 PM
Right there in the title of the first commentary of the day: "more economic data that probably won't matter." There's always some small tinge of doub...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 7:42 AM
NOTE: Bond markets and mortgage lenders (and banks, among other things) will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.
This morning's headline suggests t...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 4:07 PM
Overnight trading was uneventful for bond markets and made for a just slightly weaker open for both Treasuries and MBS. Economic data was completely ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 11:42 AM
Even the confirmation of a 4%+ GDP and the strongest read on Pending Home Sales in 11 months were not enough to wrest control of bond market momentum ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 7:28 AM
Today is the busiest day of the week for domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions. The 8:30 time slot brings Jobless Claims and the 2nd revisio...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 4:45 PM
In yesterday's recap, we discussed the phenomenon whereby most of the market movement has been happening overnight during these Euro-centric times, ...
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