Thu, Oct 16 2014, 5:31 PM
After the sorts of big movements seen yesterday, it's not uncommon to get an equally big movement back in the other direction. That may well have bee...
Wed, Oct 15 2014, 8:40 PM
Today was intense. We'll probably be talking about it for years to come. While there have been bigger days of outright movement in bond markets, you...
Wed, Oct 15 2014, 7:36 AM
If you've ever watched a survival show where campers set up pots and pans tied on a string to sound an alarm for approaching bears, etc., then the u...
Wed, Oct 15 2014, 2:24 PM
If you're just tuning in, bond markets are having a career day with 10yr yields currently operating near 2.06 after trading in the 2.2's yesterday and...
Tue, Oct 14 2014, 12:33 PM
Although bond markets were already heading toward their best recent levels by Friday night, the move over the weekend was on another level altogether....
Tue, Oct 14 2014, 7:34 AM
The tendency for bond yields to move in concert with stock prices had been spottier before September's FOMC Announcement, but has been over since then...
Tue, Oct 14 2014, 5:42 PM
As we discussed in this morning's Week Ahead , bond markets are highly attuned to the current fate of equities markets. This can be viewed either fr...
Fri, Oct 10 2014, 11:31 AM
The only economic data reported this morning was Import/Export Prices, which gives investors a gauge on inflation. Import prices posted a better than ...
Fri, Oct 10 2014, 8:21 AM
The past few days got me thinking. I've been reading some articles and even some analysis from respected sources that I feel has missed the mark on w...
Thu, Oct 9 2014, 11:27 AM
It's the same story for stocks and bonds right now. Yesterday's impressive rally was extended overnight in both cases, and is now pulling back as the...
Thu, Oct 9 2014, 9:11 PM
Yesterday’s FOMC induced rally continued overnight and into the early morning. The benchmark 10 year treasury note fell to a low of 2.28 at the open, ...
Thu, Oct 9 2014, 7:31 AM
NOTE: Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS " roll " tonight, meaning October coupons will no longer be traded and November coupons will take over as the...
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 12:43 PM
Treasuries had a fairly uneventful overnight session--this time paying much more attention to the movement in European bond markets (not the case yest...
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets began acting odd yesterday, but in a good way. It began in the overnight session where US Treasuries outperformed European bond markets....
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 4:43 PM
There was a chance that much of the recent rally in bond markets had been due to the expectation that today's Fed Minutes would offer a softer side of...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 12:16 PM
While trading activity is nowhere near that seen on Wednesday through Friday last week, it's picked up a bit today. That's largely been a net positi...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 7:32 AM
After an exceptionally busy week last week and with very little on the calendar of scheduled events, this is an understandably slow week for bond ma...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 4:34 PM
I was disappointed to see a few article headlines coming out this afternoon crediting this morning's negative economic data in Europe for an impressiv...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 12:15 PM
Today's most notable feature is it's lack of volume and participation. Both have subsided since last Wednesday-- proof positive that economic data i...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 7:35 AM
The week ahead is something of a palette-cleanser to last week's bolder flavors. Big-ticket events will now be few and far between , but the opportu...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 3:59 PM
One of our most frequently discussed themes of late has been the relative disregard for economic data on the part of bond markets. This was to be p...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 12:11 PM
NFP came out much stronger than expected with solid revisions to the past two reports, and a drop to 5.9% on the unemployment rate. With revisions, t...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 7:32 AM
There are only so many ways to discuss the same old charts and trends in bond markets. So let's have a fireside chat about NFP and the current state ...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 3:48 PM
Depending on which "close" we're talking about, bond markets may actually break even by the end of the day. In terms of the 3pm Treasury pit close, 1...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 12:40 PM
It's one thing for bond markets to ignore stock markets when the latter is moving less than a quarter of a percent day-over-day. That's been the case...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 7:32 AM
10yr yields dropped a precipitous 10bps yesterday. While this isn't much compared to some of the more volatile days of the past 6 years, it's one of ...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 3:50 PM
Bond markets had a fairly tame day given the potential for the ECB to move markets along with the potential to react to yesterday's big move. In gene...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 12:35 PM
It's asking quite a lot to believe that the single most consistent source of guidance and inspiration for trading levels--economic data--is pretty muc...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 7:39 AM
Today is the first day of a new month and new quarter, and Octobers have historically been active for bond markets. That leaves us to wonder whether ...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 5:42 PM
There's little else today's recap can offer that hasn't already been covered in the mid-day commentary. Check that out here: Strong Bond Market Rall...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 12:38 PM
The relevance of month/quarter-end trading considerations isn't limited to the US Treasury market. Month-end for German bond markets (the largest in ...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 7:32 AM
It continues to be the case that economic data is guilty until proven innocent. The crime? Not being very relevant in terms of market movement compa...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 4:30 PM
Month/Quarter-end trading dynamics made for a volatile day in the context of the recent range. It wasn't so much that the moves were big, just that t...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 12:24 PM
MBS and Treasuries are both in distinctly stronger territory today after an overnight rally that reached it's zenith by 9am. There are quite a few fa...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 7:43 AM
After September's big move higher in rates cooled off, we've been left in limbo , to some extent. There certainly hasn't been a painful continuation...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 4:51 PM
Bond markets were in the throes of a late overnight session rally by the time the domestic session began. The rally began at 6:30am Eastern time and ...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 7:34 AM
Will GDP finally be the piece of economic data that actually moves markets? No... but it might play that role on TV. I'm serious actually.
Mark...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 5:20 PM
In case you missed it, today saw one of the biggest ever market reactions to a personnel announcement. Get caught up HERE if you like. There is ...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 1:33 PM
GDP came in this morning at a whopping +4.6%, so bond markets are losing ground due to the strong economic data, right?
Wrong...
Bond markets mo...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 12:23 PM
Once again, economic data has been a non-event in terms of market movement. Instead, two other sources of inspiration clearly stand out for US bond...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 7:41 AM
Things are finally getting interesting again for bond markets after almost all of 2014 has been relatively boring. Unfortunately, what's interesting ...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's sell-off was somewhat disconcerting as it raised the possibility that the push back against September's weakness had run out of steam. ...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 12:50 PM
Overnight Treasury trading was nothing to write home about. 10yr yields began the day very close to 'unchanged' after initial weakness during Asian h...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 7:32 AM
If you have TV, Internet, or if you speak to any other humans, it's hard to miss the fact that stocks have been on an exceptionally linear, multi-year...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 5:36 PM
Today started off well enough for MBS and Treasuries. Although the first part of the overnight session was a bit weaker, European trading helped get ...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 12:29 PM
Once again, bond markets came into the domestic session at slightly stronger levels and have more or less flat-lined. Fannie 3.5s have held inside ...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 7:25 AM
I'm not exactly sure why the presence of economic data (or lack thereof) is worthy of a spot in any headlines relating to the day's market outlook. F...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 5:21 PM
While mortgage rates aren't based on Treasuries, broader bond market trends are much more easily considered in the context of 10yr yields. Those cros...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 12:31 PM
This morning's Existing Home Sales data was slightly weaker than expected. The annual pace fell to 5.05 mln from 5.15 mln last month. Expectations...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 7:32 AM
This will be a relatively busy week for economic data and scheduled events. No single item stands out as an epic potential market mover, but the tea...
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