Wed, Apr 30 2014, 11:04 AM
The blue line is stocks; yellow is 10yr yields. When we see a chart like this on the last 2.5 days of the month-- ESPECIALLY when the recent norm has...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 7:18 AM
As a quarterly report with monthly updates, GDP releases are slightly different from month to month. The order is: advance, preliminary, and final. ...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 3:54 PM
Heading into the last hour of trading on this all-star day, bond markets have moved at a fairly average pace, albeit in rate-friendly directions. The...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 1:59 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met
in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up
recently, after...
Tue, Apr 29 2014, 12:16 PM
The overnight session was nominally weaker for Treasuries, but there was limited activity overall as Japan (the key participant in US Treasuries durin...
Tue, Apr 29 2014, 7:48 AM
To be perfectly fair to financial markets, "things could get serious" at any moment really, it's just that the events that are more predisposed to bri...
Tue, Apr 29 2014, 3:34 PM
It was a generally quiet day for bond markets, though that wasn't destined to be the case at the open. Treasuries had weakened slightly overnight and...
Mon, Apr 28 2014, 11:47 AM
MBS are coping with the double-edged sword that is stronger housing data this morning. On the one hand, the decisive reversal of an 8-month slide in ...
Mon, Apr 28 2014, 7:39 AM
If calendar events like economic reports and monetary policy announcements end up being the impetus for bond markets to break out of their 3-Month sid...
Mon, Apr 28 2014, 3:23 PM
Bond markets were just slightly weaker overnight, with no major volatility or trading themes emerging. MBS walked in the door a bit weaker as a resul...
Fri, Apr 25 2014, 8:00 AM
Bond markets are "done" with this week. 10yr yields haven't spent more than one day without being on both sides of the fence at 2.70 this week, which...
Fri, Apr 25 2014, 3:37 PM
MBS saw their first trades of the day come in just a hair over yesterday's latest levels, which were also the best of the day. They never looked back...
Thu, Apr 24 2014, 12:01 PM
Bond markets have had a volatile morning so far. Treasuries were slightly weaker overnight, resulting in lower opening levels in MBS. Both were weak...
Thu, Apr 24 2014, 8:00 AM
Bond markets continue to be relentlessly sideways. Just when Treasury yields were staging for their best chance at breaking out of a 3-month range-bi...
Thu, Apr 24 2014, 3:54 PM
For the second straight day, MBS are coasting toward the close having held a narrow 4/32nds range for most of the day, having seen little, if any thre...
Wed, Apr 23 2014, 12:07 PM
Even before this morning's economic data, bond markets were already in slightly stronger territory. The data itself only helped, though it's a doubl...
Wed, Apr 23 2014, 7:00 AM
The first two days back from the extended weekend have been surprisingly uneventful, and that's saying something considering they were already likely ...
Wed, Apr 23 2014, 4:21 PM
It was a refreshingly strong day for MBS and Treasuries. While the gains weren't immense by any standard, they were mostly present from the start o...
Tue, Apr 22 2014, 12:07 PM
Stocks and bonds have been in relative lock-step for much of 2014 (stock prices and bond yields moving in same direction, aka 'stock lever'). The cor...
Tue, Apr 22 2014, 8:00 AM
Global financial markets were unequivocally still out on holiday breaks yesterday--unofficially in the US and officially in Europe. There were no m...
Tue, Apr 22 2014, 4:06 PM
The overarching caveat for any assessment of today's market activity is that the whole thing occurred in a relatively tight range. Sustained highs an...
Mon, Apr 21 2014, 12:09 PM
If bond market activity is any indication, today might as well be another day of the extended holiday weekend. In fact, this is officially the case...
Mon, Apr 21 2014, 7:51 AM
Just a few short days after the ostensible deescalation in Ukraine following Thursday's Geneva talks, violence broke out over the weekend with a shoo...
Mon, Apr 21 2014, 3:57 PM
The trading day was an insult to anyone attempting to pay any attention today. Considering it was the slowest day of the year (including early clos...
Thu, Apr 17 2014, 11:34 AM
Given the recent adherence to a sideways range in bond markets combined with today's economic data coming in stronger than expected, it's not surprisi...
Thu, Apr 17 2014, 7:51 AM
At the beginning of the week, we discussed the shared fate between stocks and bonds, noting that they'd been exceptionally well-connected of late and ...
Thu, Apr 17 2014, 3:02 PM
Bond markets had a bad day. The setup for this one started as early as Tuesday, when what looked like a shift toward weakness on Monday was instead ...
Wed, Apr 16 2014, 12:03 PM
Bond markets started the day in weaker territory after stronger economic data out of China and follow-through on yesterday's bounce (bonds had ralli...
Wed, Apr 16 2014, 9:23 AM
With the resurgence of geopolitical risk as a market mover yesterday (Ukraine headlines caused a big mid-day bond rally), there will be a wide varie...
Wed, Apr 16 2014, 3:17 PM
As of the 3pm Treasury pit close (the unofficial end of the day for bond markets), little, if anything has changed from this morning. Despite having a...
Tue, Apr 15 2014, 12:03 PM
Geopolitical risk is an old friend to bond markets. When prospects for awful things flare up at home and abroad, money tends to flow out of stocks an...
Tue, Apr 15 2014, 7:56 AM
Financial securities have a tendency to alternate between periods of movement and consolidation. Obviously, if something isn't moving higher or lower...
Tue, Apr 15 2014, 3:44 PM
For all the possibilities, today ended up being both surprising and straightforward for bond markets. The surprise was that Ukraine headlines turned ...
Mon, Apr 14 2014, 11:45 AM
Coming into the week, there were some technical considerations regarding the recent losing streak in stocks and winning streak in bonds. These se...
Mon, Apr 14 2014, 7:45 AM
Certainly the past 6 trading days (NFP Friday and every day thereafter) have been strong for bond markets and weak for stocks. The connection between...
Mon, Apr 14 2014, 4:00 PM
Nothing has changed from the Mid-Day Commentary , as MBS continue bouncing along the same lows that offered support earlier this morning. Treasuri...
Fri, Apr 11 2014, 11:56 AM
By this time yesterday, MBS had already moved up 3/8ths of a point from morning lows. Activity is muted by comparison today. Movement has been in ...
Fri, Apr 11 2014, 7:42 AM
Yesterday's bond rally took markets by surprise. Granted, the proponents of the 'death cross' or those pointing to support from longer term moving av...
Fri, Apr 11 2014, 3:22 PM
Even after moving across the 3pm close of Treasury Pit trading at the CME, bond markets have continued to hold inside the same narrow, sideways range ...
Thu, Apr 10 2014, 12:33 PM
Earlier this morning, there was a solid 30 minutes where it looked like stronger economic data would make things challenging for bond markets headin...
Thu, Apr 10 2014, 7:51 AM
Bond markets bounced back into positive territory after yesterday's FOMC Minutes. MBS fared better than the longer-dated Treasuries (10's and 30's)...
Wed, Apr 9 2014, 11:50 AM
So far, the opening prices have been the worst of the day for MBS. In addition to the 12 ticks accounted for by the roll, Fannie 4.0s were another 5 ...
Wed, Apr 9 2014, 7:50 AM
Last night was Class A Settlement for MBS--aka " the roll ." If the roll causes any confusion (which it tends to do until it clicks for you), try thi...
Wed, Apr 9 2014, 4:18 PM
The day ends with something of a mixed message as Treasuries are still slightly weaker in 10 and 30yr maturities while 2-7yrs are stronger, along with...
Tue, Apr 8 2014, 12:16 PM
MBS traded lower during the first hour of the day but made it back into positive territory just after 9am. Treasuries have followed a similar patte...
Tue, Apr 8 2014, 7:51 AM
Yesterday, we talked about the current week being an opportunity for bond markets to reflect on the range that's dominated most of 2014 (starting Jan ...
Tue, Apr 8 2014, 4:38 PM
There were no overly interesting headlines or economic reports in today's session to guide market movements. Instead of taking cues from data and eve...
Mon, Apr 7 2014, 11:52 AM
Stock market momentum isn't the only consideration for bond markets this morning, but it's perhaps the most overt . So far, it's helped MBS and Trea...
Mon, Apr 7 2014, 7:51 AM
This week marks the first major intermission for the bond markets story in 2014. The first act was intensely sideways, leading to phrases like " ser...
Mon, Apr 7 2014, 4:06 PM
Today's story isn't much more complicated than the headline. It's not uncommon to see some follow-through on Monday following NFP Friday if the latte...
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