Wed, Oct 8 2014, 12:43 PM
Treasuries had a fairly uneventful overnight session--this time paying much more attention to the movement in European bond markets (not the case yest...
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 7:32 AM
Bond markets began acting odd yesterday, but in a good way. It began in the overnight session where US Treasuries outperformed European bond markets....
Wed, Oct 8 2014, 4:43 PM
There was a chance that much of the recent rally in bond markets had been due to the expectation that today's Fed Minutes would offer a softer side of...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 12:16 PM
While trading activity is nowhere near that seen on Wednesday through Friday last week, it's picked up a bit today. That's largely been a net positi...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 7:32 AM
After an exceptionally busy week last week and with very little on the calendar of scheduled events, this is an understandably slow week for bond ma...
Tue, Oct 7 2014, 4:34 PM
I was disappointed to see a few article headlines coming out this afternoon crediting this morning's negative economic data in Europe for an impressiv...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 12:15 PM
Today's most notable feature is it's lack of volume and participation. Both have subsided since last Wednesday-- proof positive that economic data i...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 7:35 AM
The week ahead is something of a palette-cleanser to last week's bolder flavors. Big-ticket events will now be few and far between , but the opportu...
Mon, Oct 6 2014, 3:59 PM
One of our most frequently discussed themes of late has been the relative disregard for economic data on the part of bond markets. This was to be p...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 12:11 PM
NFP came out much stronger than expected with solid revisions to the past two reports, and a drop to 5.9% on the unemployment rate. With revisions, t...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 7:32 AM
There are only so many ways to discuss the same old charts and trends in bond markets. So let's have a fireside chat about NFP and the current state ...
Fri, Oct 3 2014, 3:48 PM
Depending on which "close" we're talking about, bond markets may actually break even by the end of the day. In terms of the 3pm Treasury pit close, 1...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 12:40 PM
It's one thing for bond markets to ignore stock markets when the latter is moving less than a quarter of a percent day-over-day. That's been the case...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 7:32 AM
10yr yields dropped a precipitous 10bps yesterday. While this isn't much compared to some of the more volatile days of the past 6 years, it's one of ...
Thu, Oct 2 2014, 3:50 PM
Bond markets had a fairly tame day given the potential for the ECB to move markets along with the potential to react to yesterday's big move. In gene...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 12:35 PM
It's asking quite a lot to believe that the single most consistent source of guidance and inspiration for trading levels--economic data--is pretty muc...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 7:39 AM
Today is the first day of a new month and new quarter, and Octobers have historically been active for bond markets. That leaves us to wonder whether ...
Wed, Oct 1 2014, 5:42 PM
There's little else today's recap can offer that hasn't already been covered in the mid-day commentary. Check that out here: Strong Bond Market Rall...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 12:38 PM
The relevance of month/quarter-end trading considerations isn't limited to the US Treasury market. Month-end for German bond markets (the largest in ...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 7:32 AM
It continues to be the case that economic data is guilty until proven innocent. The crime? Not being very relevant in terms of market movement compa...
Tue, Sep 30 2014, 4:30 PM
Month/Quarter-end trading dynamics made for a volatile day in the context of the recent range. It wasn't so much that the moves were big, just that t...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 12:24 PM
MBS and Treasuries are both in distinctly stronger territory today after an overnight rally that reached it's zenith by 9am. There are quite a few fa...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 7:43 AM
After September's big move higher in rates cooled off, we've been left in limbo , to some extent. There certainly hasn't been a painful continuation...
Mon, Sep 29 2014, 4:51 PM
Bond markets were in the throes of a late overnight session rally by the time the domestic session began. The rally began at 6:30am Eastern time and ...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 7:34 AM
Will GDP finally be the piece of economic data that actually moves markets? No... but it might play that role on TV. I'm serious actually.
Mark...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 5:20 PM
In case you missed it, today saw one of the biggest ever market reactions to a personnel announcement. Get caught up HERE if you like. There is ...
Fri, Sep 26 2014, 1:33 PM
GDP came in this morning at a whopping +4.6%, so bond markets are losing ground due to the strong economic data, right?
Wrong...
Bond markets mo...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 12:23 PM
Once again, economic data has been a non-event in terms of market movement. Instead, two other sources of inspiration clearly stand out for US bond...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 7:41 AM
Things are finally getting interesting again for bond markets after almost all of 2014 has been relatively boring. Unfortunately, what's interesting ...
Thu, Sep 25 2014, 5:16 PM
Yesterday's sell-off was somewhat disconcerting as it raised the possibility that the push back against September's weakness had run out of steam. ...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 12:50 PM
Overnight Treasury trading was nothing to write home about. 10yr yields began the day very close to 'unchanged' after initial weakness during Asian h...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 7:32 AM
If you have TV, Internet, or if you speak to any other humans, it's hard to miss the fact that stocks have been on an exceptionally linear, multi-year...
Wed, Sep 24 2014, 5:36 PM
Today started off well enough for MBS and Treasuries. Although the first part of the overnight session was a bit weaker, European trading helped get ...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 12:29 PM
Once again, bond markets came into the domestic session at slightly stronger levels and have more or less flat-lined. Fannie 3.5s have held inside ...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 7:25 AM
I'm not exactly sure why the presence of economic data (or lack thereof) is worthy of a spot in any headlines relating to the day's market outlook. F...
Tue, Sep 23 2014, 5:21 PM
While mortgage rates aren't based on Treasuries, broader bond market trends are much more easily considered in the context of 10yr yields. Those cros...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 12:31 PM
This morning's Existing Home Sales data was slightly weaker than expected. The annual pace fell to 5.05 mln from 5.15 mln last month. Expectations...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 7:32 AM
This will be a relatively busy week for economic data and scheduled events. No single item stands out as an epic potential market mover, but the tea...
Mon, Sep 22 2014, 5:36 PM
Today's session ended up being much like last Thursday's in that a narrow trading range persisted all day and never made a convincing attempt to mov...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 12:52 PM
Both MBS and Treasuries are back in line with trading levels from the close of business on Tuesday. Today's gains have been moderate during the domes...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's session was too close to call as far as being a positive or negative epilogue to Wednesday's FOMC day. While it's always positive to not ...
Fri, Sep 19 2014, 4:00 PM
Most of the conceptual analysis of today's action was already covered in the Mid-Day . There were no significant developments into the afternoon, bu...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 12:39 PM
Occasionally the days after FOMC Announcements can can offer more volatility and faster-paced movement than that seen on the day of the announcement. ...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 7:32 AM
With the Fed-related events out of the way, we'll finally get to see how much they mattered. Yesterday's initial market reaction--while negative--was...
Thu, Sep 18 2014, 5:01 PM
Today turned out to be spooky, or at least 'uninformative' from a market-watching standpoint. Here we have an active trading day following a hotly-...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 12:35 PM
Bond markets were slightly stronger again overnight but in the context of the past few weeks, we're essentially flat for the past 3 days. This consol...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 7:24 AM
Today brings the biggest set of events in weeks, perhaps months. Starting at 2pm, the FOMC (aka "the Fed") releases it's official policy statement an...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 5:19 PM
As far as Fed days go, this one was pretty tame. That's especially true if we consider the amount of hype and anxiety associated with this particular...
Wed, Sep 17 2014, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July
suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On
balan...
Tue, Sep 16 2014, 12:18 PM
It's generally been another uneventful day in the shadow of tomorrow's FOMC events. There just hasn't been anything on the calendar or any unschedu...
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