Fri, Jul 8 2016, 5:36 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say "the impossible happened today," but at the very least, we could call it "the improbable." A lot was at stake headin...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates held surprisingly steady despite a strong employment headline. The big jobs report came out today, and it showed payroll creation at...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 9:00 AM
After an epic run to all-time Treasury lows (and nearly all-time mortgage rate lows) bond markets are flashing warning signs about a bounce. This sor...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 4:51 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; no major drama
AM employment data (ADP and Jobless Claims) prompted more selling
Stock prices and bond yields b...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 2:02 PM
Mortgage rates finally ended an impressive winning streak today, rising for the first time in 9 days. Rates began that streak with a massive move l...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 8:42 AM
Bond markets enter domestic session at new all-time low yields
Yet again, there are no stand-out, individual motivations
All about he big pictu...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 5:25 PM
Treasury yields hit new intraday all-time lows overnight
Traders were lined up to sell at the open (profit-taking)
Weakness continued after stro...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today, extending an already-uncanny winning streak to its 8th straight day. The most recent improvements bring the averag...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 9:36 AM
Global yields begin week at new all-time lows
Underlying reasons haven't changed
What ends this?
If you only look at the US as a represent...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 4:00 PM
10yr yields traded well into the 1.3's, surpassing previous low of 1.381
No specific motivation at home or abroad, though there are several support...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably today, bringing quite a few lenders down to 3.25% in terms of conventional 30yr fixed quotes on top tier scenarios...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 9:58 AM
10yr yield hit 1.382 overnight
All-time low was 1.381 in July 2012
Welcome to the New Normal
We had a great discussion in the live chat on...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 3:50 PM
Strong overnight pop in Treasuries, ECB headlines cited
Record low 30yr bond yield and near-record low in 10yr yield
Bonds lost ground after Eur...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 1:39 PM
Mortgage rates fell moderately today, adding a 6th day to a winning streak that began with last week's Brexit news and bringing rates right to the b...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 9:09 AM
Bonds remain generally strong despite yesterday's losses
There continues to be a good line in the sand that can warn against a bigger shift
Furt...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 6:41 PM
Bonds bounced back as month-end buying hit its stride
Second wind came from Bank of England comments on likely stimulus
Yields bounced higher...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates trickled slightly lower today, technically taking them to another in a string of 3-year lows over the past 2 weeks. The most recent,...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 9:32 AM
Woops! I gave away the formula for 99% of any market analysis over the past week, but I have ...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:45 PM
Bonds continued holding ultra-narrow post-Brexit range until 3pm
At that point, Treasuries spiked aggressively and MBS eventually followed
Initi...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today, on average, with some lenders showing slight improvements while others moved just a bit higher. Even o...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond rallies don't last forever
2 ways for rates to move higher: temporary, nominal corrections, and full-scale reversals
Here's one easy way to...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 5:12 PM
Bond markets grudgingly gave up some gains, but only relative to previous close
Relative to yesterday's average trading levels, today was flat
N...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today despite some weakness in underlying bond markets. Typically, when bond yields (which move inversely with bond pr...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 9:45 AM
Oftentimes, a massive surge to long-term lows is met with a quick snap back to the safety of the previous range. So far, the current massive surge is...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 4:53 PM
Brexit fallout continues. That's really all we got
Fortunately, that's a huge positive for bond markets
10yr yields dropped more than 10bps
...
Mon, Jun 27 2016, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates move lower again today following last week's Brexit headlines (the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union). Indeed it's hard to tur...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 12:20 AM
FOLLOW THE LATEST BREXIT UPDATES on MBS LIVE with FREE TRIAL CODE: BREXIT
So what are we seeing? At this point, most major media outlets a...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 9:25 AM
For a variety of reasons and for more than a year, the MBS Live community and I have periodically revisited the general topic of a "brave new world." ...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 4:32 PM
10yr yields were as low as 1.406 overnight, but moved up to the mid 1.5's by the close
MBS were up nearly 7/8ths of a point at their best, but will...
Fri, Jun 24 2016, 1:04 PM
Mortgage rates plummeted today following the surprise victory of the referendum for the U.K. leaving the European Union (aka "Brexit"). This joins ...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 8:30 AM
2 more Brexit polls out overnight. Both leaning toward "remain"
"Remain" = terrible for bond markets
More polls and possibly even some early re...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 3:56 PM
Bonds bumped higher in yield by Brexit polls overnight
Brexit vote is ongoing and results won't be final until early tomorrow morning
No impact ...
Thu, Jun 23 2016, 3:07 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 5th day in a row as financial markets prepare for the results of the U.K. referendum on its European Union membe...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 9:12 AM
Yellen's congressional testimony moves to House Financial Services Committee--always a "good show."
Bond markets consider leveling-off ahead of Bre...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 4:04 PM
Bonds make token gains ahead of Brexit day
Brexit poll and Treasury auction helped
But trading levels are still well above "the gap" set on Mond...
Wed, Jun 22 2016, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates were higher for a 4th straight day today. That is a bit of a puzzler at first glance because bond markets are showing improvements f...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 8:51 AM
"Consolidation" would mean yesterday's high yields were a short-term ceiling
"Correction" would mean more pain for bond markets
Yellen speaks at...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 4:03 PM
Treasuries and MBS spent most of morning in positive territory
Weakness kicked in during/after Yellen testimony
Markets were waiting for encore ...
Tue, Jun 21 2016, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates remained under pressure today, moving up to the highest levels in two weeks. Financial markets are in the process of undoing some of...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets begin week significantly weaker as global markets back down on 'Brexit' trades
10yr yields created a big gap from last week's levels
...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 4:31 PM
Bond selling pressure followed-through from last week
Updated Brexit polls provided a tangible justification
Intangible math provided momentum (...
Mon, Jun 20 2016, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, and at a quicker pace than the modest increase seen at the end of last week. Financial markets are undergoin...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 9:00 AM
Is it time to freak out?
No, not yet
Bond yields are at long term lows and that's both exciting and scary. It's exciting for obvious reasons...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 4:23 PM
Today's pull-back really began yesterday, and involved stocks moving higher with bond yields
Momentum continued through the overnight session for...
Fri, Jun 17 2016, 3:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today for the first time in nearly 2 weeks. After rising slightly on Monday June 6th, rates have been on a mission--mov...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 8:33 AM
Yesterday's FOMC Announcement was largely a diversion, but only because there happen to be more important things going on in the bigger picture. The ...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 4:44 PM
Bonds rode overnight momentum to best levels in 3+ years
Stock selling is definitely part of the equation
Brexit drama now involves murder, whic...
Thu, Jun 16 2016, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, largely because they needed to get caught up with yesterday afternoon's movement in bond markets. As a reminder, ...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 9:17 AM
Bonds move up and down in small picture
In BIG picture, global race toward zero continues, as evidenced by past few days
Oh yeah... and the Fed ...
Wed, Jun 15 2016, 4:52 PM
The Fed confirmed they had an eye on next NFP
rate hike outlook was downgraded, as was growth
They're concerned about confirmation of labor mark...
