Mon, Dec 19 2016, 6:33 PM
There will definitely be a theme in the recap commentary for the rest of the year: holidays! It's hard to quantify exactly what the holiday season do...
Mon, Dec 19 2016, 5:00 PM
Mortgage rates stayed close to the highest levels in more than 2 years today, even though underlying bond markets left plenty of room for improvement....
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 8:18 AM
NOTE: This paragraph will be at the top of the Day Ahead for a few weeks. Once you've read it, feel free to skip it. The Day Ahead has long been my ...
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 5:27 PM
"Holiday trading mode" doesn't guarantee uneventful, sideways bond market momentum, but it does up the chances. Actually, it's probably fairer to say...
Fri, Dec 16 2016, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates stayed steady today, on average, though any given lender could be slightly better or worse compared to yesterday. Bond markets (which u...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 11:02 AM
Sorry for the delay on the morning commentary. As you can see, I had a lot on my mind. I also decided to go a different direction after reading the ...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 6:56 PM
If you read anything I write today, make it The Day Ahead: The Death of a Long Term Trend; A Definitive Assessment.
If you want to read more, here'...
Thu, Dec 15 2016, 3:32 PM
Don't believe anything you read about mortgage rates today... well, except this . In fact, you're welcome to believe anything you read as long as it a...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 8:36 AM
First thing's first: the Fed will almost certainly hike today. I suppose we can't ever be truly certain of a particular outcome of a Fed meeting, b...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 7:14 PM
It's either the best thing or the worst thing in the world, depending on what kind of originator you are. On one hand , the outlook for the economy ...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates skyrocketed (relatively) following today's rate hike from the Fed. It wasn't the rate hike itself, however, that markets find most trou...
Wed, Dec 14 2016, 2:06 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Sept...
Tue, Dec 13 2016, 9:03 AM
Bond yields have been trending steadily higher even after the initial rout that followed the election. Based on several technical measurements, upwar...
Tue, Dec 13 2016, 4:53 PM
There are two ways to approach today's bond market movements, and they're quintessential examples of the "glass half empty/full" expression.
Gla...
Tue, Dec 13 2016, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates started stronger out of the gate, but morning weakness in bond markets prompted many lenders to adjust rates higher by early afternoon....
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 9:04 AM
Fed policy is one of the biggest, most consistent market movers for bonds. With such a high likelihood of a hike, bond markets surely must be focu...
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 4:58 PM
We were hoping to see some traction for bond markets after today's Treasury auctions, and we got it! Unfortunately, the overnight session pushed yiel...
Mon, Dec 12 2016, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender, as well as the time of day. Earlier this morning, most lenders were quoting slightly higher ...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 8:45 AM
Bonds weren't entirely clear in telling us if yesterday's ECB tapering announcement was a " good thing that simply needed to be digested," or if it...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 4:29 PM
You're familiar with the sippy bird (or " drinking bird ")? For years, these little birds have been offering traders the ability to get out of the of...
Fri, Dec 9 2016, 3:13 PM
Mortgage rates rose meaningfully today, with most lenders coming close to the highest levels in more than 2 years (on December 1st). Keep in mind thou...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 8:26 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) changed things up today, to some extent. Unlike the Fed, which always unveils its big policy changes in the "announ...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 6:22 PM
Yesterday we discussed the rally in bonds as a function of short-covering . That meant traders were in a defensive position on Tuesday night--bettin...
Thu, Dec 8 2016, 5:42 PM
Mortgage rates were only somewhat higher today, on average, and some lenders were actually right in line with yesterday's offerings. All this despite ...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 8:54 AM
From time to time, we see various financial markets take a "lead-off." Just like in baseball, the lead-offs occur because the base-runner knows whe...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 5:41 PM
"Big" is a relative term these days, to be sure. In fact, 4.8bps in 10yr yields and 10/32nds in Fannie 3.5 MBS prices isn't too terribly big, but...
Wed, Dec 7 2016, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today, as financial markets positioned themselves for an important announcement from the European Central Bank (...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 8:47 AM
I generally don't l ike the terms "oversold" (consistent weakness) and "overbought" (consistent strength). I think they lead to false confidence...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 5:37 PM
Today's bond market trading range was the narrowest since the US presidential election, by far. 10yr yields held inside a paltry 2.9bp range (2.374 t...
Tue, Dec 6 2016, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged today, with most lenders offering the exact same quotes as yesterday. While we have seen a few days with similar day-over...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 8:52 AM
This week, we'll finally get to see how much of an impact remains to be had for the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB conducts their ...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 5:29 PM
After today, we're left with a clearer picture of the prevailing short-term range in bond markets. The volatile reaction to the weekend's Italian ref...
Mon, Dec 5 2016, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today relative to last Friday's levels, leaving them near the 2-year highs seen last Thursday. Volatility continue...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 8:12 AM
Have you heard the one about the falling knife? And how no one wants to catch it? That's one of the market's favorite analogies for the fear experie...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 5:17 PM
Let's change up the old fairy tale. Bond markets have been cried wolf on a few recent occasions. In my version of the fairy tale, "crying wolf" is e...
Fri, Dec 2 2016, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates erased yesterday's losses after today's jobs report, though not necessarily because of it. The Employment Situation (affectionately ref...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 8:32 AM
Bond markets begin the day still reeling from yesterday's OPEC-driven rout. We noted in yesterday's closing commentary that yields bounced on an omin...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in the throes of yesterday's ongoing momentum. There was a bit of a pause during Asian market hours, but European trading quickly...
Thu, Dec 1 2016, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates spiked abruptly today, bringing them to the highest levels in well over 2 years . The average lender is now quoting conventional 30yr f...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 9:48 AM
Yesterday we discussed the positive impact of month-end bond buying. The only problem with month-end buying that occurs on the day before month-e...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 5:18 PM
Today brought the long-awaited and hotly-anticipated conclusion of a deal among OPEC countries to limit oil production. Constricted supply has one in...
Wed, Nov 30 2016, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately today, bringing them roughly back in line with Monday's levels. For the record, that leaves us in slightly better shape...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 9:49 AM
The term ' pivot point ' can mean slightly different things depending on your frame of reference and market-watching goals. For our purposes, the lit...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 5:33 PM
How many ways could bond market weakness have been justified today? Shall I count the ways?
GDP +3.2 vs +3.0 forecast and +2.9 previously
...
Tue, Nov 29 2016, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rate s continued lower today. While the pace of improvement was slightly slower, it was enough to get the average lender rate sheet back to l...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 4:51 PM
Remember when 10yr yields spiked from roughly 2.31% to roughly 2.41% in the blink of an eye last Wednesday? That was the day before Thanksgiving, w...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 3:54 PM
Bond markets were stronger right out of the gate in the overnight session with 10yr yields opening at 2.337 and gaining another bp since then. The re...
Mon, Nov 28 2016, 3:40 PM
WARNING: this article's headline makes the overall mortgage rate situation sound much better than it actually is . While it is indeed a fact that toda...
Fri, Nov 25 2016, 10:22 AM
Few days of the year can be more frustrating to bond market stakeholders who find themselves compelled (either by themselves or their superiors) to ...
Fri, Nov 25 2016, 4:44 PM
As was the goal of most anyone involved in trading bonds, today was completely inconsequential. Recapping the action is a mere formality (indeed, for...
