Thu, Apr 20 2017, 9:11 AM
"Consolidation" has a bit of a different connotation when it comes to financial markets (as opposed to the dictionary definition of "the process of ma...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 5:30 PM
Europe has been the driving force for US bond markets over the past 2 days. Perhaps this will continue to be the case or perhaps it's simply due to...
Thu, Apr 20 2017, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as global financial markets shifted ahead of this weekend's election in France. One of the candidates--Le Pen--is a ...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 8:49 AM
When your career is directly impacted by bond market trends, and when you watch those trends on a nitty gritty, intraday level, one of the most insidi...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 4:47 PM
There are a lot of pieces on the board at the moment for the bond market rally that's been intact since mid-March. That rally began with a friendli...
Wed, Apr 19 2017, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher today, depending on the lender, despite bond market weakness. Typically, bond market weakness results in...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 9:25 AM
While there is more economic data on the calendar today, bond markets continue to look elsewhere for inspiration. Geopolitical risks, fiscal policy, ...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 5:18 PM
One of these days we may be forced to conclude that bonds simply WANT to be rallying , regardless of the justification. One day it's Syria. The nex...
Tue, Apr 18 2017, 3:50 PM
After stumbling just slightly yesterday, mortgage rates returned to their recent habit of setting new 2017 lows today. At this point, we're getting cl...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 9:09 AM
On Good Friday (when markets were closed), both Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index came out weaker than expected. Of particular interest i...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 4:57 PM
Today was destined to be a lower-volume session simply because it's the Monday after Good Friday. That means many US market participants are still ou...
Mon, Apr 17 2017, 3:47 PM
For the third day in a row, mortgage rates set new 2017 lows this morning. But as bond markets weakened into the afternoon, several lenders recalled r...
Thu, Apr 13 2017, 12:07 PM
Mortgage rates set new 2017 lows for the third straight day today, although only in terms of "effective rates" (which take upfront costs into account)...
Thu, Apr 13 2017, 8:44 AM
This holiday-shortened 3.5-day trading week has quickly become a brave new world for bond markets. Actually, it might be better characterized as a ...
Thu, Apr 13 2017, 4:07 PM
Heading into Good Friday weekend, it's not uncommon for bond markets to retrace whatever the trend happens to be earlier in the week. In other words,...
Wed, Apr 12 2017, 9:07 AM
Yesterday, it became increasingly clear in the middle of the trading session that bond markets were responding to the "risk-off" trading motivations...
Wed, Apr 12 2017, 6:47 PM
Friday was exciting for a short while. Following the weaker-than-expected NFP, 10yr yields briefly broke below 2.27--emphasis on "brief." Friday qui...
Wed, Apr 12 2017, 5:20 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, bringing them even deeper into new lows for 2017. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement) were already doing...
Tue, Apr 11 2017, 9:01 AM
(NOTE: If you're subscribed to receive MBS Commentary emails, you will have received last Friday's Recap in error this morning. Sorry for the confusi...
Tue, Apr 11 2017, 8:14 AM
As the headline suggests, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the big jobs report) was much weaker than expected today (98k vs 180k forecast). O...
Tue, Apr 11 2017, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today--significantly in some cases--with the average lender making it back to 2017's lows for the first time since January....
Mon, Apr 10 2017, 8:58 AM
The 2nd week of April begins with bonds threatening to embark on another bounce inside the post-election trading range (10yr yields from 2.30-2.64, ...
Mon, Apr 10 2017, 5:32 PM
On a positive note, bonds were slightly stronger today and yields held just barely below a technical level that has been more of floor than a ceilin...
Mon, Apr 10 2017, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates rose slightly again today, despite moderate improvement in underlying bond markets. Typically, bond market improvement corresponds to l...
Fri, Apr 7 2017, 8:22 AM
Cue the "all eyes" headlines that seem to pop up on NFP day, a la "All Eyes on NFP." Well, this certainly used to be true. It will probably be tru...
Fri, Apr 7 2017, 5:40 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly today, compared to yesterday's latest levels. Compared to the morning's rate sheets however, the rise was sharper, but ev...
Thu, Apr 6 2017, 9:17 AM
The day begins with a similar pattern shaping up to that seen in late March when the healthcare bill drama was highest. Said drama translated to th...
Thu, Apr 6 2017, 5:16 PM
Bonds continue grinding it out in an exceptionally horizontal sort of direction! If you saw the best and the worst of trading levels on Monday, you'v...
Thu, Apr 6 2017, 4:45 PM
Mortgage rates remained largely unchanged today, on average. Once again, there was a fair amount of volatility in bond markets (which dictate rates) d...
Wed, Apr 5 2017, 8:51 AM
Heading into the end of March, markets were generally preoccupied with the healthcare drama in congress and bond yields were generally consolidating i...
Wed, Apr 5 2017, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates were noticeably higher to begin the day, but most lenders offered mid-day improvements after the release of the hotly-anticipated Fed M...
Wed, Apr 5 2017, 4:40 PM
Coming into today, we had two key options as far as potential market movers were concerned: economic data and the Fed Minutes. On the data front, ADP...
Tue, Apr 4 2017, 8:55 AM
Yesterday's bond market activity suggested that traders definitely had some sort of agenda that went beyond a mere punching of the clock. Even with C...
Tue, Apr 4 2017, 5:40 PM
Coming off of yesterday's excellent performance, today's bond market selling-spree felt jarring --probably more jarring than it actually was. Right ...
Tue, Apr 4 2017, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, even though bond market movement suggested a move higher. That's interesting because mortgage rate...
Mon, Apr 3 2017, 9:26 AM
Remember March 15th's Fed Announcement? That was the one where the entire free world was utterly and completely convinced that the Fed would hike s...
Mon, Apr 3 2017, 5:37 PM
From an analytical standpoint, today's trading session was not well-behaved or easy to assess (I saw several iterations of "no one has any idea what...
Mon, Apr 3 2017, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates fell fairly quickly today as investors adjusted bond market holdings for the new month (higher demand for bonds coincides with lower ra...
Fri, Mar 31 2017, 9:07 AM
While there are several economic reports that have market-moving power today, the bigger issue for bond markets may be the technical battle that's b...
Fri, Mar 31 2017, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rate were unchanged to slightly lower today. Once again, the actual change you see will depend heavily on the lender in question. Most are fa...
Fri, Mar 31 2017, 4:56 PM
Month/Quarter-end bond buying was nowhere to be seen until today. It can provide a mild but determined positive trend in bond markets that transcends...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 9:32 AM
With 10yr yields having made it close to 2017's lower range in the most recent rally, the burden of proof is on bond bulls to come up with j ustificat...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 6:02 PM
For all of the apparent drama and volatility experienced during the past 2 weeks, it's easy to overlook just how narrow the range has been. There's ...
Thu, Mar 30 2017, 5:20 PM
For the third day in a row, day-over-day mortgage rate movement depends heavily on the lender. That means some lenders will be in noticeably better sh...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 8:46 AM
We characterized yesterday's bond market weakness as a simple and somewhat logical correction. The initial move was Monday morning's rally that was...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 5:59 PM
There have been two back-to-back "unwind" trades in bond markets. The stage was set by Monday morning's rally which was in response to an absence o...
Wed, Mar 29 2017, 2:00 PM
Compared to yesterday, today's mortgage rates are a moving target depending on the lender. Some are better. Some are worse. On average, rates are unch...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 8:47 AM
Today brings the week's first major economic data with 10am Consumer Confidence serving as the headliner. Before that, we'll get an update on home ...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 7:51 PM
Just when you thought you'd seen the last of the healthcare bill drama , it comes roaring back. Well, at least it felt like a roar. In retrospect, ...
Tue, Mar 28 2017, 2:06 PM
Just one day after hitting the lowest levels in more than a month, mortgage rates bounced higher today. For all intents and purposes, rates fell on Mo...
