Tue, Feb 7 2017, 8:50 AM
Bonds Are Officially in a Positive Short-Term Trend. This was also the case heading into mid January, but steady selling following Yellen's speech (J...
Tue, Feb 7 2017, 5:41 PM
Salient, easily-identifiable motivations for bond market movements continue to be elusive. The times of the day where liquidity (numbers of buyer...
Tue, Feb 7 2017, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today as investors remained cautious amid political uncertainty at home and abroad. Stocks began the day higher but l...
Mon, Feb 6 2017, 8:28 AM
There is almost no significant economic data on tap for this week. Friday is really the only contender with Import/Export Prices and Consumer Senti...
Mon, Feb 6 2017, 5:36 PM
Today was the sort of day you could ask 10 market pundits about and get 10 different answers as to the source of inspiration. From a prevalence sta...
Mon, Feb 6 2017, 4:36 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as investors sought safe haven from global political risk in the bond market. When investor demand for bonds increase...
Fri, Feb 3 2017, 8:27 AM
Given that this week's ADP employment numbers and the employment component of the ISM Manufacturing numbers both came in much stronger than expected, ...
Fri, Feb 3 2017, 6:17 PM
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 227k vs a median forecast of 175k. This fact, in and of itself, would almost always be grounds for bond market weakness, ...
Fri, Feb 3 2017, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates were noticeably lower this morning as bond markets responded favorably to the important jobs report. While the headline job growth was ...
Thu, Feb 2 2017, 8:28 AM
Occasionally, these Thursday's before NFP have very little by way of relevant economic data. Today is arguably such a Thursday. With us as always is...
Thu, Feb 2 2017, 4:42 PM
Today ended up being exceptionally quiet for bond markets in the bigger picture, although that wasn't clearly going to be the case earlier this morn...
Thu, Feb 2 2017, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, but not enough to make it back to the lows seen earlier this week. 4.25% is still the most prevalent 30yr fixed ra...
Wed, Feb 1 2017, 8:20 AM
The significance of the economic data ramps up today with ADP employment at 8:15am. This just came out at 246k vs a median forecast called for a slig...
Wed, Feb 1 2017, 5:25 PM
Between this morning's economic reports and opening tradeflows, there was quite a bit more volume early in the day. This was almost exclusively in ...
Wed, Feb 1 2017, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates were higher to end the day, but not as high as they might have been without the Fed Statement. The day began with a series of strong ec...
Wed, Feb 1 2017, 2:07 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests indicates ...
Tue, Jan 31 2017, 8:39 AM
Yesterday was a bit of a puzzler for bond markets. Volumes were decent, but movement was contained in a very narrow range (seen in the chart below). ...
Tue, Jan 31 2017, 5:01 PM
Bonds have rallied moderately since last Thursday. Incidentally, that's also when stocks topped out after their run to all-time highs (for most indic...
Tue, Jan 31 2017, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today, bringing them to their best levels in exactly 1 week. Most borrowers will see little-to-no difference bet...
Mon, Jan 30 2017, 9:04 AM
Another week in early 2017, another chance for bond markets to defend the rate ceiling set in late 2016(around 2.64% in 10yr yields) or strive for the...
Mon, Jan 30 2017, 5:26 PM
It was an uneventful day for bond markets from most points of view. After opening slightly stronger in Asia, Treasuries sold-off modestly during th...
Mon, Jan 30 2017, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today , keeping rates near the lower end of the range seen since January 18th. The catch is that rates moved sharply high...
Fri, Jan 27 2017, 8:25 AM
So far this week, economic data has played a subdued, almost meaningless role in motivating bond market movement. Instead, we've seen big picture t...
Fri, Jan 27 2017, 4:37 PM
It was a fairly one-dimensional day for bond markets, and indeed, markets in general. Despite moderate strength in European bond markets overnight, U...
Fri, Jan 27 2017, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates fell today, undoing enough of this week's damage to return precisely to levels seen last Friday. In simpler terms, rates ended the week...
Thu, Jan 26 2017, 8:36 AM
The winter holiday season can be defined a few different ways. Most broadly, it refers to Thanksgiving through President's day. That's a bit too br...
Thu, Jan 26 2017, 4:28 PM
It may not be the last time we can say this, but bonds hit their weakest levels of 2017 today--first in the overnight session as European bond markets...
Thu, Jan 26 2017, 3:17 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 6th time in the past 7 business days, even after several lenders offered mid-day improvements in the afternoon. Th...
Wed, Jan 25 2017, 8:40 AM
The first few weeks of the new year were good for bond markets, but that dream is increasingly being shattered by the past 2 weeks. We were already r...
Wed, Jan 25 2017, 5:38 PM
There were no major headlines this morning and no big economic reports behind bonds' big selling spree. Some news stories suggested overnight bond we...
Wed, Jan 25 2017, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher for the 5th time in the past 6 business days. The past 2 days have combined to bring rates a full .125% higher. That's the...
Tue, Jan 24 2017, 9:10 AM
Today's only significant economic data hits at 10am ET with Existing Home Sales (5.52 mln forecast vs 5.61 mln previously). Given the bigger decline ...
Tue, Jan 24 2017, 5:17 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory following overnight weakness in European bond markets. In addition, bond buyers generally got their ...
Tue, Jan 24 2017, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile recently, with 3 out of the past 5 business days seeing much-bigger-than-average moves. After improving nicely yeste...
Mon, Jan 23 2017, 8:52 AM
Beginning on the business week before an FOMC Announcement, Fed speakers are "highly discouraged" (forbidden, basically) from making public speeches o...
Mon, Jan 23 2017, 6:55 PM
Mt. St. Helens was the most destructive volcano in US history. Mt. St. Yellen has almost nothing to do with it apart from the fact that the bond m...
Mon, Jan 23 2017, 5:21 PM
Mortgage rates fell somewhat significantly today, fully offsetting last week's rise. Specifically, today's average rates are back in line with those s...
Fri, Jan 20 2017, 9:24 AM
10yr yields hit 2.5112 overnight. That's close enough to the important 2.52% pivot point to suggest an expansion of what we consider the current rang...
Fri, Jan 20 2017, 5:28 PM
To be fair to today's presidential inauguration, it was never destined to be an exceptionally big market mover. Traders nonetheless had to prepare to...
Fri, Jan 20 2017, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates rose slightly today, on average, but performances varied by lender and depending on the time of day. Rates were higher across the board...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 8:34 AM
When it comes to defining the recent range, there are several candidates for the upper and lower boundaries. When 10yr yields were under 2.40%, that ...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 5:22 PM
Pain continued for bond markets today as 10yr yields broke above the upper range boundaries that had been intact since the beginning of the year. Ad...
Thu, Jan 19 2017, 3:57 PM
Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey came out this morning showing the lowest rates in 3 weeks (don't get excited). This happens due to the surve...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 8:29 AM
Although yields were able to close at the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday, bonds continued to trade in the same intraday range (roughly...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 5:20 PM
After flirting with a break of the lower end of 2017's sideways range yesterday, bond traders clearly decided " now's not the time. " There's preciou...
Wed, Jan 18 2017, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates moved sharply higher today , more than erasing yesterday's improvement. In fact, in one fell swoop, rates essentially moved from the bo...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 8:46 AM
January continues playing host to the same level of stock/bond correlation that we typically see at the end and beginning of any given year. Beyond c...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 5:48 PM
In some regards, bonds had their best day of the year today. The outright gains weren't quite as big as Jan 5th or 9th, but closing yields were the...
Tue, Jan 17 2017, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today , generally recovering the losses seen last Friday. This brings many lenders back in line with the lowest levels sinc...
Fri, Jan 13 2017, 8:26 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day slightly stronger ahead of the week's only significant economic data. The 8:30am time slot brings Retail Sales (...
