Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:55 AM
There was a fair amount of anticipation over the most recent policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) which came out early in the overnight se...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:02 AM
On top of the solid report on mortgage volume earlier today, comes another hopeful report from the construction industry. The National Association of ...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 9:49 AM
A friend out in California asked me how much, on average, I spend on a bottle of wine. I replied, “About half an hour.” Plenty of wine is being consum...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 9:41 AM
loan application volume, increased 27.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis The Refinance Index rose 34 percent week-over-week but remains 81 p...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:59 PM
Limited Market Motivations as Traders Wait to Fill in Blanks
There was a palpable absence of relevant source...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:39 PM
The holiday-shortened week sees mortgage rates starting out slightly higher when compared to the end of last week. Versus any other day in the past 4...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 12:15 PM
By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-ent...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 9:19 AM
Carol K. writes, “Back in my day there was so much cheap toilet paper and eggs that we would throw them at the houses of our enemies.” And then there’...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest levels in 4 months after this week's inflation data. Despite the recent progress, Fed officials continue to...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 3:30 PM
Incidental Weakness Today, But Let's Focus on The Bigger Picture
Bonds tried to stage a mid-day rally, but e...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 12:26 PM
Recently, the bond market's job description seems to be almost entirely focused on reacting to CPI and then waiting for the next one. Perhaps we can ...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 9:15 AM
“When cannibals ate a missionary, they got a taste of religion.” In late 2022 vendors and lenders had a taste of the first part of 2023, and it isn’t ...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:46 PM
Today brought the scheduled monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Of all the monthly economic reports, this one has had the biggest impa...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Finally Decide They Liked Today's Inflation Numbers
You won't see too many days with a 10+ bp rally in...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 10:30 AM
CPI came out very much in line with forecasts. We'd discussed the possibility of threading the needle in terms of financial markets not moving much i...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 9:09 AM
“Thirty years ago, we had Bob Hope, Johnny Cash, and Steve Jobs. Today we have no hope, no cash, and no jobs. We are all praying nothing happens to Ke...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the prices and yields of bonds. Bonds take cues from several places, but always from inflation and the economy-...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:19 PM
Consolidation Takes Friendly Turn Ahead of CPI
Our focus this week has been on the notion of consolidation a...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 10:46 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) spent nearly a decade being ignored as a market mover due to an absence of any interesting momentum in inflation. That...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 9:52 AM
Ever been to Noma in Denmark? Me neither, although I did some solo bicycling there, which is so much more reliable than flying domestically this morni...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 8:10 AM
Overall mortgage application activity returned to pre-holiday levels during the first week of the new year. Lower interest rates bolstered refinancing...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 4:12 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Get Hit by Issuance
By 4pm, 5.0 MBS are only down a hair over an eighth of a po...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 3:51 PM
After coming close to the lowest levels in 4 months yesterday, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher today. There's never any way to know exactly wh...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 12:04 PM
"Circling the wagons" isn't a particularly specific term in the realm of financial market commentary. It's just a simple way to say that bonds had be...
Tue, Jan 10 2023, 10:37 AM
“Someone asked me to name two structures that hold water. I was like, well, damn.” As the storms continue to hit us in Northern California and Nevada,...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:43 PM
Last Friday was a great day for mortgage rates with two important economic reports helping the bond market make serious gains (read more). Mortgage le...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 3:32 PM
Decent Day Helps Legitimize Friday's Gains
Any time we see a strong move on NFP Friday with a hint of "snowb...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 11:32 AM
Last week brought a series of economic reports that took the bond market in both directions. Thursday's data pushed yields somewhat higher, but Frida...
Mon, Jan 9 2023, 10:30 AM
Attorneys across the nation have taken note that the Federal Trade Commission has proposed a rule that would bar companies from requiring employees to...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:50 PM
The Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed") has a parrot problem, and it's on a crash course with economic reality... maybe. The Fed sets policies that impac...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 4:49 PM
ISM and NFP Team Up To Send Rates Sharply Lower
Bonds got off to a strong start today when the wage componen...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 10:07 AM
This is about the time you stop saying “Happy New Year” to people because you’ve forgotten who you’ve said it to and who you haven’t. Lenders and vend...
Fri, Jan 6 2023, 9:50 AM
Here's a puzzler--at least at first glance. This morning's much-anticipated jobs report came out stronger than expected with nonfarm payrolls at 223k...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:32 PM
The most basic way to think about interest rate movement is to assume that a strong economy pushes rates higher and vice versa. There are many other ...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 3:24 PM
Bonds Push Back Against Stronger Employment Data, But Tomorrow is a Different Fight
Bonds got off to a weake...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 11:32 AM
The past two days of moderate gains have been "nice," but they were just a prologue to the more relevant opening days of 2023. For the last 2.5 weeks...
Thu, Jan 5 2023, 9:11 AM
While California girds its loins for an “atmospheric river and bomb cyclone”, readers should know that I sometimes ask myself, “Why can I remember the...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:11 PM
There are Fed Announcements, which involve rate hikes/cuts, press conferences, and updated rate forecasts after a 2 day meeting among Fed members. An...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 4:01 PM
Another Day Holding Modest Gains After AM Weakness
French CPI (of all the crazy things) helped bonds improve...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 11:17 AM
In 15 years of MBS Live, this may be the first time French CPI made a headline, but today, it's deserved. It's not so much that France is a critical b...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 9:21 AM
Don C. shot me a note saying, “My New Year's Resolution is to stop being so condescending! (Rob, condescending means talking down to people.)” Thank y...
Wed, Jan 4 2023, 8:22 AM
The end-of-year holiday season took its usual toll on mortgage applications. The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) report this morning recapped the p...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 4:00 PM
The bond market (which determines mortgage rates) has officially endured the frustratingly unique holiday trading environment that often creates undue...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Despite Headwinds
Bond market participants rushed back into the office today with volumes at th...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 11:04 AM
The holiday season was unmistakably marked by a strong bias toward selling in the bond market. All we could do was watch the weakness and hold out h...
Tue, Jan 3 2023, 9:18 AM
I am very happy that my life is perfect. Isn’t yours? When I order scrambled eggs at the diner, the waitress says, “Perfect.” When I pay with a credit...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:16 PM
Early Close; Light Volume and Month-End Could Cause Volatility
The early-close trading session at the end of...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 1:12 PM
So long 2022! Don't let the door hit you. You were the worst year for mortgage rates that most of us have seen in our lifetimes in terms of the pace...
Fri, Dec 30 2022, 10:15 AM
My cat Myrtle (she/her/hers) doesn’t have a lot of financial savvy, and to the best of my knowledge has no 401(k). In another reminder not to put all ...
Thu, Dec 29 2022, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates began the day very close to yesterday's latest levels. The average lender was just a hair higher. As the day progressed, US bonds fol...
