Wed, Mar 22 2023, 10:22 AM
Overheard last night in Northern California: “’The Empire Strips Back’” is the best parody show I’ve ever seen.” I only mention that because life goes...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 8:28 AM
A second week of declining interest rates prompted another increase in mortgage activity last week, the third in as many weeks. The Mortgage Bankers A...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 4:24 PM
Banking sector fears were responsible for a nice little drop in mortgage rates over the past 2 weeks. As those fears subside (to some extent, anyway)...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Stocks and Bond Yields Moving Higher Together; Fed on Deck
Today's trading session turned out to be every bi...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 1:09 PM
Existing home sales emerged, at least temporarily, out of a prolonged slump last month, and weren’t even shy about it. The National Association of Rea...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 10:29 AM
The way bond math works, every man, woman, and child that owns a fixed-income security issued when rates were lower is now underwater on that bond or ...
Tue, Mar 21 2023, 10:05 AM
Relative to the presence of important market developments and high volatility, the current landscape for bonds is surprisingly simple. The banking pa...
Mon, Mar 20 2023, 4:13 PM
Let's start today's rate coverage with a public service announcement on the best way to be a consumer of mortgage rate data online. It can be quite ...
Mon, Mar 20 2023, 3:55 PM
Absence of Data Leaves Even More Focus on The Fed
If there happened to be some significant economic data tod...
Mon, Mar 20 2023, 9:43 AM
“SMONDAY: The moment when Sunday stops feeling like a Sunday and the anxiety of Monday kicks in.” Do you think the shareholders and management of Cred...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 4:48 PM
There’s certainly a chicken/egg problem when it comes to interest rate news. Is it the Fed’s decisions that move rates? Or do market forces move rates...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 4:46 PM
Simple, Boring, Half Point Rally in MBS
There won't be too many days with a half point MBS rally that are as...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 10:32 AM
It hasn’t been a good few weeks for banks whose names begin with “Si” (Silvergate, Silicon Valley, and Signature, with Silicon Valley Bank declaring C...
Fri, Mar 17 2023, 9:59 AM
While there are no new bank failures in play, financial markets have traumatic memories from last Friday and last weekend. Better safe than sorry hea...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:04 PM
Bank Lifelines Lead Bond Market Reversal
Financial markets continue feeling out prospects for global banking...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates are ideally determined only once per day, several hours into the business day. This gives mortgage lenders time to observe a baseline ...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 1:48 PM
It didn’t approach the levels of the “good old days” of 2020 and 2021, but construction activity did show signs of life last month. The U.S. Census Bu...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 11:21 AM
While yesterday's Credit Suisse concerns were serious, the last official major bank failure happened 5 days ago. That's a very long time considering t...
Thu, Mar 16 2023, 10:16 AM
Have to buy something for someone in your life who has everything? If they’re a basketball fan, how about food smoked with the same type of wood used ...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Does Credit Suisse qualify as a "big bank" anymore? The company could be argued to be circling the drain for many months, but nonetheless holds hundr...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 4:03 PM
You Have Gone Zero Days Without a Systemic Contagion Flare-Up
As of Tuesday, the global financial market was...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 11:35 AM
The Ides of March… And college basketball time. Here in Kentucky (men #6 in the East, Louisville women’s team #5) I overheard someone on the phone. “Y...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 11:01 AM
After systemic banking fears died down earlier in the week, Credit Suisse and other European banks are saying "game on!" Stock prices of said banks l...
Wed, Mar 15 2023, 8:34 AM
Mortgage application volume increased for a second straight week as investors fled to the safety of government-guaranteed securities in the wake of th...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 3:21 PM
Where's the 4th Biggest Bank Failure?
With the 2nd biggest bank failure in history on Friday and the 3rd big...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates made substantial gains yesterday as financial markets underwent a classic flight to safety. This involves selling riskier assets like ...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 11:08 AM
Mortgage credit availability fell to just short of its 2012 benchmark level in February. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Mortgage Cred...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 10:24 AM
Pi Day has come around once again, which is also, coincidentally, Albert Einstein’s birthday. As I head to Lexington for the MBA Kentucky Education Co...
Tue, Mar 14 2023, 9:47 AM
What a difference a little systemic banking crisis makes! Without the last 3 business days, today's CPI data may well have tipped the scales toward a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 4:13 PM
Breaking Down the Big Move in Rates and Considering The Road Ahead
The 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 2:53 PM
If you're just getting caught up or otherwise haven't heard, the biggest news in financial markets since last Friday has been the precipitous failure ...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 9:23 AM
Where should we start the week? How about how predictions and forecasts are nearly worthless when they’re out of date one week later? How about with a...
Mon, Mar 13 2023, 8:59 AM
Despite the announcement of a Fed/Treasury/FDIC backstop for SVB and Signature Bank, financial markets are trading as if current events imply a sea ch...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 3:20 PM
SVB > NFP = Supermassive Bond Rally
In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a compa...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 12:36 PM
The most notable development on jobs day has stunningly turned out to be the trading that came before the jobs report in the overnight session. Bonds...
Fri, Mar 10 2023, 9:34 AM
Julie C. writes, “Did you know that every “c” in “Pacific Ocean” is pronounced differently?” As I head to Northern California, which borders the Pacif...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:38 PM
While the Federal Reserve doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, the outlook for Fed rate hikes matters a great deal. In the days and weeks leading...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 3:24 PM
Thursday Was Nice, But It's All About Friday
There wasn't much for the bond market to sink its teeth into on...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:47 AM
I wonder if Fed Chair Jerome Powell ever hums to himself, “Everybody’s talking at me, I can’t hear a word they’re saying…” (Angelina Jolie’s father, J...
Thu, Mar 9 2023, 9:11 AM
After a ho-hum and mostly sideways overnight session, bonds are starting the day with a surprisingly swift reaction to the Jobless Claims data. While...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:40 PM
There's probably not going to be any way around it. However volatile rates may have been in the past 2 weeks, they're at risk of much larger swings i...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 4:26 PM
Slightly Weaker, But It Could Have Been Worse
Bonds are heading out the door in only moderately weaker terri...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 11:20 AM
The world "resilient" has frequently been repeated in the commentary over the past two weeks, and today is already shaping up to be worth adding to th...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 9:00 AM
Last week my son asked if I had seen the dog bowl. I replied, “I didn’t know he could!” The weather here in Palm Springs, California is much different...
Wed, Mar 8 2023, 8:26 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4 percent on a seas...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 4:11 PM
Jerome Powell is the Chair of the Federal Reserve--the entity that sets overnight lending rates in an attempt to keep inflation in a low, stable range...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 3:53 PM
Rate Hike Expectations Ramp Up Post Powell
Even though Fed Chair Powell didn't say anything remarkably new o...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 10:23 AM
While the musical world mourns the loss of Gary Rossington, the last original Lynyrd Skynyrd band member, and I head to San Diego this morning for the...
Tue, Mar 7 2023, 9:25 AM
5 weeks ago, markets digested a very ho-hum Fed announcement and rate hike, eventually rallying to the prevailing range floor just under 3.40% in 10yr...
Mon, Mar 6 2023, 4:11 PM
Stronger Start Gives Way to Weaker Finish
Bonds improved in overnight trading with most of the gains seen du...
