Tue, May 23 2023, 1:30 PM
Today's most relevant econ data--S&P Global Services PMI--came in at 55.1 versus a 51.5 forecast. In a world where the bond market is generally afrai...
Tue, May 23 2023, 9:47 AM
Does your company have a decent product for a borrower who crowd-funded their down payment? How about a house with a granny unit in the back? Trends i...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:36 PM
There are some broad rate surveys/indices that show 30yr fixed mortgage rates under 6.5% or close to it, but it's a bit of a mystery as to how such a ...
Mon, May 22 2023, 4:24 PM
Why Are We Here And Where Are We Going?
The bond market has entered a lull heading into Memorial Day weekend...
Mon, May 22 2023, 12:53 PM
If you're as determined as we are to avoid reading any more than you need to about the debt ceiling, then the Fed is pretty much the only game in town...
Mon, May 22 2023, 10:31 AM
If you’re staying here in Manhattan, space is at a premium. I don’t recall the last time my room had a bathroom where one could turn the shower on, fl...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:24 PM
The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it's a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market's attention. Still, we wouldn't say ...
Fri, May 19 2023, 4:14 PM
What The Range Breakout Means For The Outlook
With bonds seeing additional weakness after breaking above 3.6...
Fri, May 19 2023, 11:05 AM
Yesterday's headline was "range breakout?" with a question mark. We only need a change in punctuation to adapt the headline to today's reality. Yiel...
Fri, May 19 2023, 10:10 AM
For me, yesterday involved a trip from Connecticut to Northern California, with talk of a lack of inventory, relatively high mortgage rates, and loan ...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:44 PM
Range Breakout ?
The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boun...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:20 PM
It may not be a death by a thousand cuts, but mortgage rates are suffering a bit of blood loss from roughly 5 cuts. Specifically, the past 5 days hav...
Thu, May 18 2023, 3:04 PM
Existing home sales account for the lion's share of all home sales in the U.S. Unlike "New Home Sales," this data series tracks previously sold homes...
Thu, May 18 2023, 9:14 AM
This Commentary has made a name for itself in covering breaking, shocking news that other, lesser outlets are too timid to even mention. “One day I ho...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:45 PM
For The Bond Market, The Waiting Will Continue
Phrases like "hurry up and wait" and "ho hum day" have been i...
Wed, May 17 2023, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher since late last week, ultimately hitting the highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday, but that trend ende...
Wed, May 17 2023, 1:04 PM
One would think that the debt ceiling debate would be a key issue for the bond market considering Treasuries are sort of the definitive US government ...
Wed, May 17 2023, 11:39 AM
The April Residential Construction Report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development shows mixed results in April...
Wed, May 17 2023, 10:47 AM
I head to Connecticut early today for the CMBA conference, but on another personal note, congratulations to Robbie Chrisman, host of the daily mortgag...
Wed, May 17 2023, 9:51 AM
The volume of mortgage applications, which had risen by more than 6 percent the prior week lost nearly all those gains during the week ended May 12. T...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:36 PM
Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales
Today's Retail Sales headline may have missed the mar...
Tue, May 16 2023, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates didn't change much today. The average lender was only a hair higher than yesterday afternoon. But that was enough for today's rates t...
Tue, May 16 2023, 2:25 PM
Home builders’ attitudes about the market for newly constructed homes continued to improve in May, partially due to the lack of available pre-owned ho...
Tue, May 16 2023, 11:41 AM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but are in the midst of a paradoxical sell-off following weaker than expected Retail Sales. Weaker...
Tue, May 16 2023, 9:19 AM
While Academy Mortgage is in the headlines again about its data breach and ransomware, from which no company seems immune, remember that, “In a democr...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:14 PM
For those who only want to be woken up when mortgage rates make a big move down into the 5% range or back up and over 7%, you're free to go. The most...
Mon, May 15 2023, 4:01 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
The bond market is increasingly resigned to the fairly boring task of waiting to find out ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 12:28 PM
While it may be blessing for rates to be flatter and more predictable lately, the fact that the sideways range is close to long-term highs feels more ...
Mon, May 15 2023, 9:54 AM
“When I was young, I was poor. But after decades of hard work, I am no longer young.” The quip about “The greatest cause of death is birth” aside, we’...
Fri, May 12 2023, 7:33 PM
Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass." Financ...
Fri, May 12 2023, 3:36 PM
Bonds Bounce Data Confirms Range Resistance
Yesterday's bounce at 3.35% suggested that the bond market's wil...
Fri, May 12 2023, 10:02 AM
If I had a dollar for every time someone called me a boring nerd, I'd have a mean daily income of $5.64 with a standard deviation of $1.25. Turning “b...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates inched lower again on Thursday as economic reports came out slightly weaker and bank sector concerns remain in the spotlight. Such thi...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Rally or Resistance?
The bond market rallied on Thursday with 10yr yields dropping about 5bps to just under ...
Thu, May 11 2023, 11:51 AM
The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama. Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as P...
Thu, May 11 2023, 10:51 AM
In Boston, “wicked pissa smart” is a compliment. I’ll argue that success in lending isn’t based on trying to predict where interest rates are going, s...
Wed, May 10 2023, 5:02 PM
Today marked the release of the most recent monthly installment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most closely followed inflation report and one ...
Wed, May 10 2023, 4:57 PM
Does Today's Data Change The Outlook?
There were a few rate friendly tidbits buried in the CPI data, but for...
Wed, May 10 2023, 12:25 PM
The long awaited CPI data is out and the results could scarcely be less eventful. Core monthly inflation (the most important number for markets today...
Wed, May 10 2023, 10:20 AM
“We are going to have a sales contest this month. The winners will get to enter next month’s contest.” Hardy har har, right? (Note: watch Glengarry Gl...
Wed, May 10 2023, 8:24 AM
The volume of mortgage applications increased last week for both home purchases and refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Marke...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates rose at their fastest pace in decades in 2022 and if only one thing could take the blame, it would be inflation. There are several way...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:16 PM
MBS Recover Some Losses Thanks to 3yr Auction
The day began with a strong bond auction in Germany setting th...
Tue, May 9 2023, 12:53 PM
A strong bond auction in Germany set the stage for US bond yields to start the day slightly lower, but sellers have been pushing yields higher steadil...
Tue, May 9 2023, 8:50 AM
Wanna track your credit score minute by minute, regardless of whether you speak English, Spanish, whatever? I have no idea why any sane person would w...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved noticeably higher to start the new week--high enough that you'd have to go back to last Monday to see anything higher. That's th...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:16 PM
Rising Rates Reiterate Relevance of The Range
Bonds were in weaker shape right from the start. Holiday clos...
Mon, May 8 2023, 12:08 PM
The bond market isn't trying on any new hats recently. Yields have been mostly deadlocked between 3.4 and 3.6%.
Econ data has been mixed. Bank...
Mon, May 8 2023, 9:28 AM
Amidst the seemingly week mass shootings and violence, individual deaths stand out. Heartfelt condolences go out to Jennifer and Dan Gilbert, of Rocke...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:39 PM
The first week of any given month tends to have the highest concentration of economic data with the power to influence the bond market, and thus inter...
