Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:50 AM
I travel a fair amount via commercial airplane. (Greetings today from Ft. Lauderdale; this afternoon it’ll be Chicago.) But forget traveling in heavie...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:34 PM
Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more grow...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 9:31 AM
Fun with numbers! 1: the number of Chinese surveillance balloons over Montana. (That we know of.) Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? (Y...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary:...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 9:54 AM
Happy Groundhog Day, where the rodent saw its shadow this morning, so plan on six more weeks of winter. There’s an old Yiddish proverb “We plan, God l...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:48 PM
For some, this will be old hat. For others, there's a mystifying dynamic that demands explanation. The confusion stems from years of being condition...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 9:48 AM
I’ve never seen my cat Myrtle fly commercial. That aside, time “flies” by, Tom Brady retired again, and here’s a trivia question for your friends and ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 9:41 AM
Mortgage activity slowed significantly last week, pulling the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Market Composite lower after three weeks of gains...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been roughly in line with last week's latest levels at the beginning of the current week. That means they're fairly close to the ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:48 PM
As rates spiked and sales contracted at the fastest pace in decades last year, we knew the post-pandemic surge in home prices was set to reverse. By ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 9:14 AM
Does technology always trump personal skills? Sometimes. But not all the time. Good LOs use the technology that best suits them in combination with th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 4:40 PM
Skittish Over Data and Central Bankers
With no relevant market movers on the US calendar today, it was notab...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:38 AM
Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key e...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:07 AM
Want to really let someone know that you’re no longer interested in them? For $10 the San Antonio Zoo is offering a special Valentine’s Day greeting f...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:57 PM
5 for 5 on Uneventful Trading Days; Next Week Should be Different
Heading into this week, if we had to guess...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:43 PM
There are those who always try to portray the glass as being half full when it comes to the housing market. Then there are those who love a full glass...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 2:51 PM
For those in the housing and mortgage market, there's certainly been a shift in the tone over the past few weeks. I can't speak for everyone in that ...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 12:06 PM
The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE. While it's always good to maintain some respect...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 10:01 AM
Every lender or investor with an “a” in their name seems to be subject to rumors and news in recent months. (More on Flagstar and American Pacific bel...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 4:28 PM
No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of onl...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 3:33 PM
Scheduled economic reports are one of the first places the market looks to get a read on interest rate momentum. Of all the days this week, Thursday ...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 2:50 PM
The Census Bureau's regularly scheduled monthly report on New Home Sales was released this morning. The annual pace of 616k was right in line with th...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 10:53 AM
Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary. We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic da...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 9:26 AM
The most dangerous statement in the English language is, “But we’ve always done it this way.” Referral business has always been a mainstay in our biz,...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily determined by the bond market, and it's been an uneventful week for bonds! That means we haven't seen much of a change i...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 3:55 PM
Uneventful Week Continues
Next time bond traders have a hard time getting to sleep, they could just read a r...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 11:52 AM
If you'd like to skip right to the end, the week is shaping up to be every bit as inconsequential as anticipated with bonds holding in a fairly narrow...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 9:00 AM
There are a lot of topics being covered here at the MBA’s IMB conference. One of them is hedging, and if you want a primer on how lenders are protecti...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 8:10 AM
Mortgage loan activity posted a third straight gain during the week ended January 20 . The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) said its Market Composi...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at higher levels than yesterday for the average lender, but the movement was fairly small. Most lenders were still able ...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Small Scale Volatility Against Bigger-Picture Holding Pattern
Bonds took several opportunities to react to e...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 11:03 AM
After having a case of the Mondays yesterday (unclear motivations and range-bound weakness amid low volume and light liquidity) bonds are back in the ...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 9:54 AM
Conference attendance in 2023 may be down, given layoffs and budget cuts, but here’s a handy dandy list of events this year and state organizations. (...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:15 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in 4 months at times over the past week, rates have drifted up a bit. There hasn't been much rhyme or reason behind t...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Have a Case of The Mondays
Unlike the past 3 Mondays, which have seen fairly healthy participation and...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 11:34 AM
Reduced to the most simplistic of considerations, bond market price movement is all about supply and demand. The same is true of just about anything ...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 9:53 AM
Do you know what “splooting” is? Here’s a hint: 4-legged animals do it. (Hey, I don’t make these things up.) Quite the word. Words are very interestin...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 5:03 PM
Bonds Retreat a Bit. No Compelling Reasons or Implications
Bonds rallied to the best levels in months ear...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 1:01 PM
Since coming off the highest rates in more than a decade in November, bonds ran into resistance just before the end of the year. That resistance coin...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 12:20 PM
Existing home sales fell back for the 11th straight month in December according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) The month’s sales of ...
