Wed, Apr 5 2023, 4:16 PM
Rates Rally Cautiously After ISM Services Data
On the approach, today's ISM Services PMI looked like the 2nd...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 3:53 PM
It seems like only a few weeks ago that the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was surging up to 7% from 6% just a few weeks earlier. In fact, it doesn...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:09 AM
“I’ve had $8,000 in my bank account and I’ve had $8. Let me tell you, the $8 lasted longer.” $42 billion in deposits didn’t last long in Silicon Valle...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 11:03 AM
Apart from Friday's jobs report, this morning's ISM Services (or "non-manufacturing") data was the week's most relevant market mover in terms of sched...
Wed, Apr 5 2023, 8:35 AM
March was a good month for the mortgage market with application volume growing for four straight weeks, but as the month ended, so did the winning str...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:44 PM
Downbeat Data Primes The Pump For Shift
Tuesday's Job Openings report combined with Monday's ISM Manufacturi...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 4:35 PM
As long as we're talking about the best case scenario conforming 30yr fixed mortgage rate, the average lender officially hit 2-month lows today, just ...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 12:43 PM
It wasn’t yet the season, but February’s home price environment seems to have gotten a jump on the vaunted spring housing market. Black Knight’s Mort...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 11:17 AM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory as they followed European yields higher overnight. But the domestic session is looking up thanks to JOLTS dat...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 10:25 AM
I was having dinner in Manhattan last night, with the topics including Virgin Orbit filing for bankruptcy and the continuing Homepoint rumors (any que...
Tue, Apr 4 2023, 9:56 AM
Construction spending remained unremarkable in February, declining fractionally from January (-0.1 percent) while maintaining a 5.2 percent improvemen...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as investors reacted to economic data that showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply ...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 3:49 PM
Downbeat Data Puts Downward Pressure on Rates
Although there was some cause for concern in the overnight tra...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 10:20 AM
Today I’m in Manhattan, having flown in to one of the nicer malls I’ve ever walked through, aka LaGuardia Airport. ($8 billion goes a long way.) No, I...
Mon, Apr 3 2023, 9:39 AM
The bond market is still in the process of reestablishing composure after the recent banking panic. The bank episode sent Fed rate expectations plumm...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 6:18 PM
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 3:34 PM
Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data
Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and ...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 12:12 PM
Today brings two new updates on inflation. Core PCE inflation came in at 4.6 vs 4.7% forecasts, down from a 4.7% level previously. This isn't nearly...
Fri, Mar 31 2023, 9:27 AM
“My landlord told me that she would like to have a chat with me about the house's sky-high heating bills this winter. I told her, ‘Sure thing, wheneve...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 4:09 PM
This week's theme has undoubtedly been the extreme absence of volatility in the rate market. Whether we're looking at mortgage rates themselves or a ...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 3:52 PM
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was signifi...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 12:00 PM
Volume and volatility have rapidly died down over the past 3 days as the market settles into a waiting game. What are we waiting for? Successive day...
Thu, Mar 30 2023, 10:11 AM
It’s important to be stylish; just ask Pope Francis. (Page down once or twice to see the fake image. And we wish the 86-year-old a speedy recovery fro...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 5:03 PM
For the second day in a row, mortgage rates didn't move nearly as much as they have been moving on any given day during the past 3 weeks. This is a r...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 4:44 PM
Another Boring (But Resilient) Day
After the past few weeks, boring trading days aren't necessarily unwelcom...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 3:07 PM
January was a refreshingly strong month for many economic reports, but especially for metrics relating to the housing and mortgage markets. This wasn...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 12:10 PM
In the wake of bank failures earlier in the month, stock prices and bond yields had been highly correlated. This is a more normal trading pattern for...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 10:35 AM
Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says, “I've lost my electron.” The other asks, “Are you sure?” The first replies, “Yes, I'm positive.” (Yes, its cutting-...
Wed, Mar 29 2023, 8:07 AM
Applications for both home purchases and refinancing rose for the fourth time during the week ended March 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) s...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 5:09 PM
The week began with a noticeable uptick in mortgage rates relative to last week's lows. Today's momentum continued in the same direction, but with le...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 4:59 PM
The Most Boring Trading Day in Weeks
Bond market volatility exploded on March 10th after the failure of Sili...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 11:29 AM
Some people might like the idea of perpetual appreciation in the housing market, but others know that the industry was badly in need of a cool-down af...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 10:20 AM
The week began with a somewhat sharp sell-off. This followed the steady selling pressure in bonds seen last Friday (albeit after the lowest opening y...
Tue, Mar 28 2023, 10:17 AM
John F. Kennedy has been gone nearly 60 years, and Jackie Kennedy (Onassis) nearly 30, but the couple still resonates with people. The first home that...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in just over 6 weeks on Friday as investors braced for bad news in the banking sector. Such fears tend pull mo...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 3:53 PM
Bonds Buyers Back Off as Banks Bounce
Bank health continues to dominate the news cycle with investors buying...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 10:36 AM
“Once you lick the frosting off of a cupcake, it becomes a muffin. And muffins are healthy. You’re welcome.” Adding another expense to a transaction i...
Mon, Mar 27 2023, 9:26 AM
Bond yields began rising at 2am this morning when news broke regarding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). First Citizens bank will acquire...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 4:40 PM
Bonds Manage to Hold Gains Despite Risk Recovery
Everything has been driven by the "risk-on, risk-off" movem...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 10:07 AM
The old sign on the trading floor that proudly boasted we had gone 2 days without a systemic banking flare-up (as of yesterday) has been reset to "0,"...
Fri, Mar 24 2023, 9:49 AM
“I got stuck in a conversation with some wealthy people and one woman asked me how my investments were doing. I replied that both avocadoes should be ...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 4:21 PM
Over the course of the past two days, the average conforming 30yr fixed rate has moved down to the lowest levels since early February for most lenders...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 3:56 PM
Bonds Improve on Late Day Risk Aversion; Thoughts on Liquidity
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territ...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 12:11 PM
The Fed cleared a lot up for the market yesterday by confirming that inflation still matters, but that systemic banking problems also matter. Powell ...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 12:08 PM
New home sales surprised everyone in January, surging by 7.5 percent to 670,000 units, the highest rate since March 2022. It was, however, only an il...
Thu, Mar 23 2023, 9:53 AM
Things are always changing. No bagpipe player I saw growing up looked, or played, like this. The MBA’s forecast for 2023 volumes changed, and here’s t...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 5:05 PM
There was some debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve would hike the Fed Funds Rate today, although the consensus was for a 0.25% increase. ...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 4:55 PM
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite a Fed Hike and a Stubborn Dot Plot
Today promised to be one of the most inter...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 2:02 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust picked up in recent months, months and are runn...
Wed, Mar 22 2023, 11:19 AM
It's difficult and probably not that important to rank today's Fed day against other iterations over the past few years. It's easy to say that it is ...
