Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:47 PM
While experts might be able to debate the underlying causes, they can all agree that inflation is the key reason that rates skyrocketed at the fastest...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 10:05 AM
Don’t forget that today, 7-11, is Free Slurpee Day, but that this Sunday the price of a first-class mail stamp is going up from 63 cents to 66 cents, ...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 4:10 PM
The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates rea...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 2:29 PM
The Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May doesn’t even hint at a housing crisis on the horizon. Affordability is again (or maybe still) a concern, ...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 10:05 AM
“The world is going to come to an end tonight at midnight. Tune in tomorrow to see if it did!” Sensationalist headlines or bad predictions are tiresom...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 6:10 PM
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a ...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 10:32 AM
What’s our Federal Reserve concerned about? I was in a restaurant last night in Truckee, California, and was shown the table and handed the menu. When...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:51 PM
It seems like just last week (because it was) we were commenting on the extreme LACK of volatility in the mortgage rate landscape. Starting last Thur...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 10:35 AM
Apparently China is not paying interest on its sovereign debt… What is it waiting for? If you’re waiting for lower rates to give your business a “shot...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 8:37 AM
The volume of mortgage applications fell during the last week of June as compared to the prior week which had contained an adjustment to account for t...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:59 PM
While the mainstream mortgage rate indices continue operating in the mid-to-upper 6% range, actual rates are moving higher into the 7% range by the ti...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 12:00 PM
It may be Wednesday--a day that typically marks the midpoint of the bond market's work week--and it may be the week of the month with several of the b...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 9:29 AM
Hey, I’ve got news for you: 2023 is half over. Sometimes reality bites, and vendors and lenders can’t sit there, wringing their hands, waiting for thi...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 11:55 AM
Monday brings a courtesy trading day for bond market participants. Those who want/need to trade can do so while those who wanted the 4 day weekend do...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 10:25 AM
The other night my cat Myrtle began squeaking in her sleep and moving her paws. She was either dreaming about a Chupacabra, a CFPB exam, or the Depart...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 4:20 PM
Month/Quarter-End Came Early
As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME clo...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 10:22 AM
We’re halfway through 2023 already. Time flies. It doesn’t seem that long ago when I was a kid and I had to learn how to make my own bowl of cereal wi...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:50 PM
Despite other indices showing the average 30yr fixed rate in the 6.7 range, the actual average (after accounting for points) is once again over 7%. W...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 10:24 AM
A “crisis” is a time of intense difficulty, trouble, or danger. Think calamity, catastrophe, or disaster. The word makes for attention-grabbing headli...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:25 PM
The bond market is waiting for bigger news on inflation and the economy, and traders aren't pretending otherwise. Why does that matter? Traders dete...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 10:02 AM
As the U.S. faces nationwide flight delays, one must ask if there are processes in place for the FAA to deal with them. “Trust the process” is a commo...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 9:17 AM
In light of yesterday’s strong report on new home sales and the earlier marginally improved one on pre-owned home sales, mortgage application volumes ...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:25 PM
Tuesday continued the same theme of incredibly modest movement inside an incredibly narrow range. The average lender is still just under 7% for a con...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:11 PM
Logical Weakness After Stronger Data
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot a...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 1:33 PM
Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA’s) Home Price Index (HPI) show home...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 1:16 PM
Last month’s sales of newly constructed single-family homes rose to the highest level since February 2022. The report from the U.S. Census Bureau an...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot at 8:30am. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales finished the job at 10am. Wi...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 10:27 AM
Dang there’s a lot going on in Texas. One week it’s raining “hail the size of goat balls” (not my term; it was the phrase used by the woman mortgage b...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:23 PM
Only So Many Ways to Say Sideways
It was an uneventful, boring, uninspiring, and unenlightening summertime M...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:03 PM
The average 30yr fixed mortgage rate has been holding just under 7% for the entire month, making June the least volatile month in well over a year. A...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 12:46 PM
Here we are (still) with 30yr yields closer to 4% than 3%, economic growth softening, leading indicators pointing to further contraction, and inflatio...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 9:49 AM
How can it be that it’s been 14 years since Michael Jackson died of acute propofol intoxication? (A drug that is used for the induction and maintenanc...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 5:17 PM
A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the h...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 3:24 PM
Still Waiting For a Breakout After Friday's Uneventful Strength
Friday began with solid gains courtesy of we...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 11:19 AM
Granted, today's only available domestic economic data is the S&P PMIs, but the market could have justified either a stronger or weaker response. The...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 10:43 AM
Time is an interesting construct. The solstice is officially behind us, and we can officially hum “The Boys of Summer” with impunity. Time… “5,000 yea...
