Wed, Oct 12 2022, 8:39 AM
Mortgage application volume fell again last week, but the declines were small compared to the double-digit declines in all indices during the week end...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 3:42 PM
Bonds Dodge British Bullet But Still Fighting For Survival
The overnight session and especially yesterday's ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 2:34 PM
For many of the holidays in the US bond market, relevant overseas bond markets are also closed. The opposite is true on several occasions with Indige...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 2:24 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) for the month of September today. The index uses borrow...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 12:05 PM
The holiday trading session was dominated by another snowball sell-off in British bonds with the UK 10yr yield rising more than 30bps. Much like last...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 8:59 AM
Here in Louisville, at AgFirst’s Correspondent Lending Conference, much of the discussion involves going after builder business (“focusing on how fast...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 7:30 PM
The resilience of the economy is a matter of debate with different cases to be made depending on the data. But when it comes to the Fed's favorite rep...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 4:24 PM
Logical Outcome For Bonds. Still Waiting on Data to Tell a New Story
The jobs report came in just slightly a...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 11:37 AM
Jobs are great for people who like eat food and buy things, but too many jobs are bad for people who like low rates. And when the labor market is bei...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 9:17 AM
While investors who “jumped the gun” on establishing their own conforming conventional loan limits ahead of the official proclamation at the end of No...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 4:25 PM
Weakest Levels of The Week Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds sold off mid-morning after starting off relatively fla...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 3:15 PM
Mortgage rates were refreshingly lower at the beginning of the week with most lenders continuing to improve through Tuesday afternoon. Much has chang...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 12:15 PM
Without commenting on the odds of any particular outcome, Thursday can't help but fill the role of "placeholder" given the proximity of tomorrow's big...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 10:00 AM
One can always focus on lending activity hitting a 25-year low, or the once mighty loanDepot reducing its own liquidity or handing raises out to execu...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 4:19 PM
The mortgage rate world has been on a wild ride in general, and even more so in the past few weeks. The crux of the drama was a British fiscal policy...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Confirmation of What We Probably Already Knew
Bonds began the day in weaker territory after a slew of "not-t...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 9:58 AM
As feared, the recent rally in the bond market is quickly proving that it was fueled by a correction from panicked levels surrounding the UK drama in ...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 9:21 AM
Yogi Berra, when asked about staying in a particular hotel, replied, “The towels were so thick there I could hardly close my suitcase.” I’ve attended ...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 7:44 AM
There were two storms brewing last week and each contributed to driving mortgage applications to generational lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 4:53 PM
We're measuring our mortgage rate spikes in terms of years and decades at the moment. Progress in the other direction has been elusive--especially si...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 4:36 PM
Bonds Might Have Lost Ground Today if Not For Big Data Surprise
Bonds ended up scratching out modest gains t...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 1:01 PM
Bonds got off to a decent start in the overnight session with help from a lower-than-expected rate hike from the RBA (Australia's central bank) and on...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 9:02 AM
Now we have a butter shortage raising prices ahead of the holidays. Great. While margarine makers are licking their chops over the news, vegans and ot...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 4:15 PM
Spending on residential construction, while down a bit in August and in spite of the gloom and doom about the housing market, continues to run signifi...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 3:28 PM
Nice Rally, But Not Out of The Woods Yet
Bonds rallied in two distinct waves on Monday. The first came in ...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 2:54 PM
Mortgage rates remain elevated in the context of the past decade and 2022 in general, but they continue making progress after hitting long-term highs ...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 11:12 AM
Bond yields trickled sideways to slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but experienced better gains as the big news out of the UK made the...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 10:12 AM
This is the start of Fat Bear Week. (My money’s on Popeye.) Those poor bears don’t have much privacy, and it turns out that neither do humans. Consume...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 8:48 PM
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Month-End Selling Keeps Rates Range-Bound
You've perhaps heard of month-end bond buying? How about month-en...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 12:04 PM
Today's calendar may have contained what the Fed refers to as its preferred inflation metric (Core PCE price index), but it was never likely to be a b...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 10:41 AM
If you’ve ever had to hire people, did you sort your applications into three piles: Mad, Hopeless, or Possible? For his Antarctic expeditions, Ernest ...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 5:31 PM
"The following information is deemed reliable only through September 29th, 2022. After that, rates could be as much as .25-.50% higher or lower. " E...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 4:26 PM
Data Dependent Reality Keeps Bonds in Check
Wednesday's emergency bond buying announcement from the BOE serv...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 10:45 AM
Water is a powerful force: just check out this time lapse storm surge video from Ft. Meyers in Florida. Turning to metaphors, Sun Tzu said, “If you wa...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 9:51 AM
Wednesday's rally offered hope after the BOE stepped in with emergency bond buying. The overnight session that followed painted a slightly less hopef...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 5:33 PM
If you're just getting caught up, mortgage rates broke above 7% yesterday for the first time since 2002. Read our coverage to learn more about why ra...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 4:57 PM
Is Wednesday's Rally Enough to Turn The Tide?
10yr yields began the day with overnight levels easily over 4....
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 1:21 PM
Bond biggest recent issues were caused by a fiscal announcement in the UK that would drastically increase debt and decrease revenue (read: inflationar...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 9:46 AM
As Florida’s homeowners, insurance companies, and companies that service loans in Hurricane Ian’s path, brace for the storm, lenders nationwide contin...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 9:28 AM
Average mortgage interest rates increased significantly during the week ended September 23. As a result, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said t...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 5:27 PM
The monthly New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau is usually just "there"--one of several monthly housing-related reports that makes no promises ...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 4:19 PM
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today
MBS ended up with a nice little rally after 2pm that brought prices 3/8th...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 3:33 PM
Today brought the release of the two biggest home price indices (HPIs) for the month of July from S&P Case-Shiller and FHFA. Both HPIs showed a marke...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 1:49 PM
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have been moving relentlessly higher in 2022. But how high is high? That will depend on a number of factors, incl...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 12:19 PM
While there's no way to know exactly when it will happen, there's always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 10:17 AM
Yesterday, before the yield on the risk-free U.S. 2-year note rose to 4.25 percent, I mentioned my cat Myrtle being offered a big signing bonus by the...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:52 PM
The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was "14 years." It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared ...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
If you're just getting caught up, UK fiscal policy is probably a...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 11:36 AM
After a glimmer of hope at the end of last week, bonds are back to their old tricks. Actually, they only have one trick recently: selling-off at a fa...
