Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:53 PM
There's a good video in the news stream with Austan Goolsbee going on a bit of rant about how the Senate's procedural vote on a budget resolution late...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 9:38 AM
It's a crappy day.
Sorry to use such an esoteric analytical term, but it's the most accurate way to describe the outlook. So what changed?
Lo...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 5:11 PM
It was a pretty interesting session for how narrow the range continues to be in bond markets--interesting both for bonds themselves and for the analys...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 8:34 AM
The past 3 days were disconcerting for bond markets--especially yesterday, which saw yields move higher at their quickest pace in two weeks. This thr...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:58 PM
Everything seemed so simple last Friday when bonds were surging past technical barriers in strong volume--ostensibly ringing the dinner bell for mor...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 9:43 AM
Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on ...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 4:52 PM
Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortuna...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 9:18 AM
As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds br...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:01 PM
If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly inte...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 9:27 AM
It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 4:30 PM
There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to ...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 8:18 AM
My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberat...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 8:04 PM
Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the curr...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 9:04 AM
CPI, CPI, CPI...
The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. ...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 5:34 PM
"Well? Get on with it!"
That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after t...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 8:50 AM
On both MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily, there's a video in the news stream titled "Key things to watch in the Fed minutes." The commentator rather ...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds struggled to find a theme in their first trading day back from a 3-day weekend. Much of the international focus was on Catalonia's quest for in...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 9:00 AM
After having waited a day to begin trading this week due to yesterday's Columbus Day holiday, bond markets will spend today waiting for the week's mor...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 6:22 PM
The Employment Situation (aka the jobs report, or simply, "NFP") is the granddaddy of all economic reports. Through the years, no other piece of da...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 8:22 AM
NFP, or "nonfarm payrolls" (the principle component of the big jobs report officially known as the "Employment Situation") are a bond market instituti...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 4:58 PM
Generally higher yields and tepid intraday performances are nothing new for bond markets over the past week and a half. In some ways, today marked a ...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 8:49 AM
Yet again, bond markets have managed to string together 4 days doing something other than selling off abjectly. Without a firmer push toward lower ...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 5:19 PM
Bond markets saw a decent amount of strength in the afternoon. It ultimately allowed 10yr yields and MBS to return to positive territory by the end o...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 9:11 AM
In 2011-2016, Europe was the dark horse market mover that ended up winning the race. Far too few domestic market participants appreciated the impact ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 4:36 PM
Both yesterday and today have been the sort of days that just haven't mattered in the slightest for bond markets. Yesterday was spent consolidating ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 9:05 AM
Bond markets are in the throes of their worst uptrend in yields since the November presidential election. Granted, trading levels are still roughly...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 5:30 PM
You never know... Sometimes the end of any given month will be skewed in one direction in terms of trading momentum only for the following month to s...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 9:11 AM
The current trend in bond markets is not your friend. While it may sound trite, there's a reason we say "the trend is not your friend until it's your...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 3:49 PM
The music is currently playing for the role of Fed Chair next year. When the music stops, Yellen may or may not still have a seat. News came out t...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 8:31 AM
This morning brings one of the more important inflation metrics for the US economy via the "Incomes and Outlays" report. As the name suggests, the re...
Thu, Sep 28 2017, 4:39 PM
Treasuries hit their highest yields since the beginning of July today, although they'd already begun to calm down by the start of the domestic sessi...
Thu, Sep 28 2017, 8:32 AM
First off, let me say that the extent to which bond market weakness over the past 2 days is being wholly attributed to the tax plan borders on ridicul...
Wed, Sep 27 2017, 5:40 PM
While MBS definitely did sell-off today, and while mortgage rates did indeed move higher, it was Treasuries that took the brunt of the damage. Specif...
Wed, Sep 27 2017, 9:24 AM
Before it even began, today was set to be a challenge for bond markets. As discussed in an earlier update on MBS Live , Treasury yields rose sharpl...
Tue, Sep 26 2017, 4:33 PM
Today was another good day for bond markets despite the fact that Treasury yields moved somewhat higher during the course of trading hours. At leas...
Tue, Sep 26 2017, 9:05 AM
For some of you, this may seem very basic. For others, hopefully it will serve as an eye-opener or even just a useful refresher. I got the inspirati...
Mon, Sep 25 2017, 5:16 PM
It's tempting to say that bond markets are definitively pushing back against the sharp correction that brought rates higher over the past 2 weeks. In...
Mon, Sep 25 2017, 9:03 AM
The current week begins with bonds holding ground for a 3rd day after a fairly sharp selling spree in the preceding 2 weeks. The big question is whet...
Fri, Sep 22 2017, 4:52 PM
Who knows how today's trading would have unfolded absent the overnight headlines that North Korea was planning to test an ICBM with a Hydrogen warhead...
Fri, Sep 22 2017, 8:59 AM
With a dearth of economic data on the calendar, bond traders were set to take cues from other traders, technical levels, and perhaps a big-ticket head...
Thu, Sep 21 2017, 4:40 PM
In a sick way, it would have been easier to see additional weakness in bond markets today. At least that would have jived with past precedent of "c...
Thu, Sep 21 2017, 9:43 AM
Remember when the Grinch's heart grew 3 sizes? No, I mean, do you really remember watching that movie for the first time and the feeling you had wh...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 5:28 PM
Today's Fed announcement wasn't appreciably different than most economists, traders, and armchair analysts expected. They confirmed the inception o...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 2:04 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June July indicates that the...
Wed, Sep 20 2017, 8:33 AM
Much like an actor can get lost in a role and take things a bit too far, bond markets played the part of "a market undergoing a correction" a little ...
Tue, Sep 19 2017, 5:33 PM
While MBS managed to remain 1 tick in positive territory today, Treasury yields were higher on the day and the overall mood in bond markets managed ...
Tue, Sep 19 2017, 8:54 AM
Ahoy ye salty dogs sailing the high seas of the mortgage world. Another year has come and gone without any grand preparations for Talk Like a Pirate ...
Mon, Sep 18 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds got off to a weaker start on this Fed week, and there weren't any convenient scapegoats in sight. That said, there were a few caveats. Most ...
Mon, Sep 18 2017, 9:04 AM
Wednesday's Fed Announcement is one of the best-telegraphed in Fed history. Multiple speakers--including Yellen herself--have all but promised that t...
Fri, Sep 15 2017, 5:09 PM
Between the overnight session and domestic trading hours, the following voices tried to get inside the head of bond markets:
A North Korean miss...
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