Thu, Jan 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Well... at least things are interesting . The winter holidays are always a challenge from an analytical and market-watching standpoint. It seems li...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 9:37 AM
Is the decades-long bull market in bonds over? I imagine we'll be talking about this sort of thing every time yields spike to multi-month highs and...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 4:42 PM
Last week's bounce at a ceiling of 2.60% (twice, essentially) was enough for some DEFENSIVE hope. In other words, it introduced the possibility of th...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 9:07 AM
There's bad news and not-quite-as-bad news. Longer-term bonds (the stuff we care about) are either in a modest, steady, long-term uptrend (in rate)...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 5:00 PM
Had it not been for a fairly abrupt sell-off in stocks (the first big day of losses in 2018, and the biggest open-to-close sell-off since late August ...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 9:36 AM
Don't get too excited. Despite a few close calls and false alarms, bonds managed to close below last Tuesday's highs for three days in a row. Now th...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 7:58 PM
I laughed out loud today--something I rarely do when reading typed words--after MBS Live cornerstone Sung Kim quipped "thank God China is buying today...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 8:34 AM
A majority of market participants (or their mentors) were steeped in the extraordinary inflation/rate volatility of the late 70's and early 80's. As ...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 4:50 PM
Yesterday morning's news regarding China potentially buying fewer (or selling) US Treasuries has been a big talking point. While most pundits and eve...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 9:18 AM
Yesterday, the possibility of China decreasing its purchases of US Treasuries was all anyone could talk about . Amid a sea of voices declaring this ...
Wed, Jan 10 2018, 5:37 PM
Yesterday: Japan . Today: China . Stakeholders, journalists, and even a fairly wide swath of bond traders are eager to make sense of the past 2 da...
Wed, Jan 10 2018, 9:02 AM
The proverbial "you know what" just got real. We'd been waiting for the first big dose of bond market momentum following months of consolidation head...
Tue, Jan 9 2018, 5:43 PM
In certain circles, much was made of overnight news that the Bank of Japan would be buying fewer bonds. That's about as far as most news stories de...
Tue, Jan 9 2018, 10:11 AM
This commentary was delayed this morning due to several alerts posted on MBS Live. If you're not a member and haven't checked it out, you should .
...
Mon, Jan 8 2018, 5:19 PM
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory (emphasis on "slightly"). The overnight session was calm and thinly traded with Japan being out of...
Mon, Jan 8 2018, 10:20 AM
Not to be confused with the consolidative trend seen in Q4, 2017, there's been a slightly more negative consolidation underway in the last few weeks. ...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 5:33 PM
Harker and the curve... It's not a song or a morning radio show.
It's a reference to the Fed's Patrick Harker commenting on the yield curve toda...
Fri, Jan 5 2018, 9:37 AM
I had my doubts at times, after some of this week's volatility. I thought perhaps that bonds were showing signs that the "new year momentum" (a notic...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 4:44 PM
The overnight session and early morning hours saw a good, old-fashioned economic-data-driven sell-off in bond markets. Asian and European data were...
Thu, Jan 4 2018, 9:42 AM
If you happen to read and retain most of what I write, you'll have noticed that toward the end of December, I increasingly mentioned that it wouldn't ...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 4:56 PM
Bond markets improved overnight, but were under pressure in the morning after stronger ISM Manufacturing data and then again following the release o...
Wed, Jan 3 2018, 9:37 AM
Today brings the first significant economic data of the new year in the form of ISM Manufacturing at 10am. During times when markets are actively res...
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 5:43 PM
Bond markets have had worse days , but the average day is definitely better than today. 10yr yields moved more than 5bps higher, bringing them to 2....
Tue, Jan 2 2018, 8:42 AM
New Years Day doesn't always fall on a day that allows for a 3.5-day weekend. When it does (as it did this year), the first day back to work tends to...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 3:58 PM
There were no significant economic reports today, no major headlines, and no other events that prompted movement in bond markets. As is often the cas...
Fri, Dec 29 2017, 9:35 AM
Markets will close early today (2pm ET for bonds), but most of 2017's trading needs have long since been handled for most traders. Case in point, th...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 6:01 PM
Bond markets sent a fairly clear message today: don't expect much tomorrow. Trading activity is dying down in the same sort of way it did last Thur...
Thu, Dec 28 2017, 9:27 AM
With yesterday's big rally out of the way (a correction to a correction in the yield curve, as discussed in yesterday's close), the most logical impli...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 5:44 PM
Last Tuesday was not my favorite kind of day when it comes to discussing reasons for bond market movement. The tax bill was in the process of being pa...
Wed, Dec 27 2017, 9:13 AM
The National Association of Realtors publishes reports for both Pending and Existing Home Sales. The conventional wisdom is that Pending Sales tend t...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 5:41 PM
Bond markets got off to a seasonally typical start this week with volumes and volatility both virtually nonexistent. There are past instances of vola...
Tue, Dec 26 2017, 9:21 AM
Welcome to the void--the week that bond markets forgot, and/or the week that bond market participants may wish to forget after 3 and a half more days ...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 5:27 PM
Today created very little--if any--need to think, say, or do things that haven't already been thought, said, or done--at least when it comes to bond t...
Fri, Dec 22 2017, 9:36 AM
If you weren't already noticing that the worst of this week's selling spree was over with yesterday's ground-holding, today's early trading essentia...
Thu, Dec 21 2017, 5:21 PM
There were several economic reports at 8:30am this morning--names that have some track record of moving markets like GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Phil...
Thu, Dec 21 2017, 9:29 AM
As we discussed yesterday, the flattening of the yield curve has been a dominant trading theme in 2017. It's also been a "crowded trade" for bond mar...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 4:45 PM
Today was much calmer than yesterday in terms of intraday volatility. The overall trading ranges in 10yr yields and MBS were more than twice as nar...
Wed, Dec 20 2017, 9:43 AM
Things have gone from "very sideways" to "very bad" for bond markets in less than 48 hours. As of Monday afternoon, this could have been any other ...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 5:25 PM
There were no market movers in play today. I'm not trying to be funny or clever. There were no market movers- -at least not in the traditional sens...
Tue, Dec 19 2017, 9:28 AM
It could just be random December trading that ultimately proves to be inconsequential, but every visit to the top of our recent ranges has to be take...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 5:27 PM
Last Friday I said that bond traders had "had enough" when it came to reacting to every little tax bill headline. That theme held true today, but now...
Mon, Dec 18 2017, 9:48 AM
While it's not on some economic calendars yet, this Friday will be an "early close" for bond markets, meaning no trading after 2pm ET. Even then, v...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 7:32 PM
Bond traders are increasingly saying "enough already! " when it comes to reacting to every little push and pull in the tug-o-war over the tax bill. ...
Fri, Dec 15 2017, 9:15 AM
From time to time, a discussion will start up among MBS Live community members regarding certain habits for certain months of the year. Some popular ...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 4:55 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory partly due to a correction from yesterday's strong run in the afternoon, and partly due to stronger economic...
Thu, Dec 14 2017, 8:29 AM
Volume swelled during the first 3 days of the week, culminating in yesterday's CPI/Fed combo and a fairly large move lower in rates. That's what we c...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 5:59 PM
Heading into the day, we knew we were looking at 2 key market movers in the form of the CPI data and the afternoon's Fed festivities (which include ...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 13 2017, 8:26 AM
Today brings 2 key developments in the form of the 8:30am CPI data and the afternoon's Fed announcement. CPI--the Consumer Price Index--was one of ...
Tue, Dec 12 2017, 4:59 PM
It was a pretty straightforward day for bond markets, which CONTINUE to operate in an exceptionally narrow, sideways range. That's been the case ...
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