Thu, Dec 27 2018, 5:16 PM
Is this the "big one" or isn't it?! That's what everyone with a vested interested in the stock market would like to know about the ongoing sell-off t...
Thu, Dec 27 2018, 9:10 AM
Last Wednesday was Fed day and it marked a technical breakout for bond yields. As far back as June 2018, 10yr yields had been bouncing on a floor of ...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 4:47 PM
Bonds had a rotten day, primarily because stocks had an amazing day (although the terrible 5yr Treasury auction didn't help). In turn, stocks prima...
Wed, Dec 26 2018, 10:04 AM
The title of the Day Ahead commentary on Monday was "Don't Get Too Attached." In a nutshell, the suggestion was to not get too attached to any decisi...
Mon, Dec 24 2018, 9:31 AM
The week and a half surrounding Christmas and New Years Day tends to play by its own random rules. Sometimes it fits in with the prevailing trend (in...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 4:35 PM
After quite a bit of stock/bond correlation in the run up to the Fed announcement (and in the few hours that followed), the two sides of the market ...
Fri, Dec 21 2018, 8:35 AM
One of the biggest surprises I encountered as I've learned about bond markets (and financial markets in general) over the years is just how big a ro...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 5:23 PM
Stocks and bonds haven't necessarily been joined at the hip for every moment of every day recently, but there's been enough correlation to make today'...
Thu, Dec 20 2018, 9:03 AM
When bonds have been in a relatively strong trend for better or worse heading into the 3rd week of December, we tend to see a consolidation or a conti...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 4:58 PM
The Fed had a chance to soothe the stock market today by doing "something dovish" with respect to monetary policy or even forward guidance. "Someth...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 2:03 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen ...
Wed, Dec 19 2018, 9:09 AM
What is the sound that doves make? I know they can cry, according to Prince, but "to cry or not to cry" would have been a weird headline title. I'm ...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 4:59 PM
We're typically talking about "the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields," but in terms of PRICES , there was certainly some gravity in play c...
Tue, Dec 18 2018, 9:58 AM
Fed day tomorrow! We'll finally get to see what's what with respect to recent speculation and a factual shift in tone from several Fed members (inclu...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 5:46 PM
Just when you thought we might be done talking about "consolidations," there's that word again! I'd suggested on Friday that the modest bond market g...
Mon, Dec 17 2018, 9:37 AM
More than anything else over the past 3 weeks, a shift in tone among Fed speakers has been at the heart of the year's best bond market rally. Seeming...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory. While they spend a small amount of the day trading a small distance away from those opening lev...
Fri, Dec 14 2018, 9:24 AM
If you've truly come to an appreciation of the gravity of bonds' big picture headwinds over the past 2 years, then the past 5 weeks may feel like a st...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 7:12 PM
Whether or not next week's Fed announcement proves to bring a winter storm for bond markets remains to be seen. That said, if anything is going to do...
Thu, Dec 13 2018, 9:26 AM
The first 3 days of this week have offered a clear correction/consolidation to the strong rally of the previous month. This had as much to do with ti...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 7:02 PM
Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury ...
Wed, Dec 12 2018, 10:16 AM
As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we exp...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 5:37 PM
Government shutdowns make good news. When risks of a shutdown flare up (especially with today's sort of political theater) it tends to dominate the...
Tue, Dec 11 2018, 9:19 AM
Consolidation... That's that word we use to refer to sideways and frequently narrower trading ranges that follow a period of more directional movement...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 5:44 PM
Bonds struggled to find inspiration for the first few hours of the domestic session, but it was soon in ample supply thanks to Brexit-related headline...
Mon, Dec 10 2018, 8:01 AM
We've had an impressive winning streak recently and have acquired gains worthy of a watchful, protective eye. Will this be a durable rally or a fleet...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 4:23 PM
This morning's trading--both before and after NFP came out--basically acted as additional time for debate . Both MBS and Treasuries bounced quickly,...
Fri, Dec 7 2018, 8:33 AM
Powell's speech last week at the Economic Club of New York marked the beginning of an official shift. Until then, while the Fed had its dovish dissen...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 5:29 PM
Without discussing what tomorrow may bring for bond markets, we can safely say that today was big. Both in terms volumes and outright trading level...
Thu, Dec 6 2018, 9:09 AM
Good times are rolling in the bond market, even if they're rolling much more for Treasuries as opposed to MBS. Nonetheless, MBS will continue to bene...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 5:53 PM
Bonds rallied in a big way today with intraday lows of 2.885% in 10yr yields. There was also a prominent sell-off in stocks, begging the conclusion...
Tue, Dec 4 2018, 9:13 AM
The day begins with the December rally gathering steam, or at least maintaining the surprisingly strong levels achieved yesterday afternoon. Yields c...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 5:21 PM
I don't think candlestick patterns can predict the future, but a few of them offer quick and easy ways to convey a certain theme in the market. One o...
Mon, Dec 3 2018, 8:57 AM
Much like the person on a journey of self-improvement might hear a trite pep talk about today being the first day of the rest of their life, bond mark...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 4:06 PM
In and of itself, today's trading session wasn't anything special. There wasn't much by way of economic data (just Chicago PMI, which fell on deaf ...
Fri, Nov 30 2018, 10:05 AM
Relative to the last 2 years of pain for bond markets, a sense of hope has emerged, seemingly overnight. That has to do with the fact that bonds (as ...
Thu, Nov 29 2018, 5:01 PM
There have been two distinct phases to the bond market rally that followed yesterday's speech by Fed Chair Powell. The first was fairly logical in ...
Thu, Nov 29 2018, 9:42 AM
I use the baseball/lead-off analogy quite a bit to refer to a range breakout that occurs before the important event that is most likely to cause a bre...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 4:31 PM
Today was interesting for bond markets in the sense that it certainly FELT like a nice day with solid gains. This has to do with the noticeable ral...
Wed, Nov 28 2018, 9:27 AM
This morning's chart looks complicated at first glance, but it's actually very simple. It doesn't even matter if you're familiar with candlestick cha...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 5:54 PM
Volume may be picking up for the bond market following the typically quiet Thanksgiving trading week, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the move...
Tue, Nov 27 2018, 9:33 AM
Oil prices are always interesting to consider when it comes to bond markets. After all, oil is a major cost input for the economy. Even the "core" i...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 4:39 PM
Most of today's bond market movement followed a single trade in the morning hours. Someone with deep pockets bought a lot of 2yr Treasury debt and ...
Mon, Nov 26 2018, 9:14 AM
Markets will be getting back into the swing of things (probably slowly) today after the Thanksgiving holiday. As we discussed excessively last week, ...
Fri, Nov 23 2018, 9:11 AM
I could go on and on about why it makes so very little sense for today to be a business day and for Thursday to be the official Thanksgiving holiday...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 5:46 PM
Bond markets have a habit of getting progressively more quiet heading into Thanksgiving. It's not the kind of thing you should bank on from a strat...
Wed, Nov 21 2018, 9:22 AM
I used to be annoyed by the word "consolidation." It was on a short-list of market jargon words that were overused and possibly nebulous. But over t...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 6:24 PM
We've had a pretty good run recently where bond yields have been willing to at least move in the same direction at the same time during sharper stock ...
Tue, Nov 20 2018, 9:36 AM
Despite a fairly perfect bounce yesterday, the trend-lines acting as floors in stocks and bonds have given way overnight, even if only in somewhat u...
Mon, Nov 19 2018, 6:04 PM
Builder Confidence doesn't typically move markets, but today it did. For the past several month's, the NAHB's Housing Market Index (generally consider...
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