Wed, Aug 12 2009, 3:50 PM
Like we said regarding the 10yr Auction: "the results are not as bad as the 10yr has demonstrated in the first few seconds." And regarding the FOMC S...
Wed, Aug 12 2009, 2:19 PM
* FED SAYS EXTENDS PURCHASES OF LONG-TERM U.S. TREASURY DEBT TO END OF OCTOBER, KEEPS AMOUNT $300 BLN
* TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PURCHASES OF AGENCY ...
Wed, Aug 12 2009, 1:46 PM
Of course all this could go right out the window after the FOMC announcement, but the moderation we expected at 3.75 on the 10yr has occurred and coin...
Wed, Aug 12 2009, 1:01 PM
* high yield of 3.734% with 20.93% at high. exactly with current trading
* Bid To Cover 2.49 - closer to average, last one was the outlier that...
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 12:18 PM
I dont want to say its been a terribly slow morning, there has actually been a pretty decent pace to morning price action in futures trading...however...
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 8:32 AM
The AM So Far...
* 5 ticks up so far in 4.5's to 99-15
* tsy futures flluctuated overnight, but coming of domestic session reversed any lo...
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 6:20 PM
Tomorrow is FOMC Statement day...speculatively we are still waiting for stocks to selloff and note that the long end of the yield curve isnt priced t...
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 3:32 PM
As the close of the markets draws near, tsy's are at their best levels of the day at 3.68, having moved considerabley lower since 2:30 despite a moder...
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 2:14 PM
More to be appended here shortly...
Moderate risk of reprice for the worse as MBS have pushed to their lows of the day as stocks and tsy yields pus...
Tue, Aug 11 2009, 1:01 PM
Initial reaction is positive. Not much change in MBS or Tsy's at the moment. But have seen a few upticks... Jury still out, but so far, muted pre-F...
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 11:15 AM
Rates traders remain very DEFENSIVE of the behavior of stock markets. Fixed income rallies may not last long as market participants sell into strengt...
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 8:23 AM
The AM So Far...
* 7 Ticks up on 4.5's, ticks up on the 10 yr
* 10yr futures above resistance (good)
* Not yet at Friday's opening le...
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 5:09 PM
For one of the only times in the history of the MBS Close, the entire commentary is obviated by the title. With little if any data that anyone really...
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 4:23 PM
With the Fed not expected to offer up any tapebombs and stocks leading TSY prices higher....today was simply a return to status quo, a mini correction...
Mon, Aug 10 2009, 1:40 PM
In and of themselves, today's gains are quite good, with the 4.5 currently up 18 ticks to 99-12. This in fact puts us above Pre- NFP levels including...
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 10:58 AM
After the better than expected NFP print the benchmark 10 yr TSY yield rose over 10bps to 3.88%. The selling pressure was noticeable in futures market...
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 8:30 AM
The only good news this AM is that Today's NFP was indeed the major guidance-giving, market-moving report we've been expecting. Bad News: it's not th...
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 5:17 PM
When all was said and done today, the 4.5 coupon lost just 13 ticks after being as weak as 27 ticks down at one point this AM and 25 ticks down at a r...
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 3:49 PM
Treasuries and Stocks appear to have shown their hand for the day as the close of the stock market approaches. After 3 earnest attempts, the 10yr has...
Fri, Aug 7 2009, 1:33 PM
Activity remains quiet early in the afternoon hours on this summer Friday. The FN 4.5 has moved 11 ticks (11/32) off the lows of the day. Some lenders...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 10:28 AM
Although this morning stocks moved lower as profit takers set out to time a top before tomorrow's NFP print, fixed income market participants have bee...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 8:21 AM
The AM So Far...
* 4 ticks up on 4.5's. Currently at 99-14
* BOE announces surprise increase in QE, pound slides
* IF the dollar ben...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 5:09 PM
Although the give and take wasn't quite as drastic as yesterday's, once again we saw prices travel in a confined range with an almost symmetrical patt...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 3:46 PM
The Federal Reserve took a break from buying today. Servicers and Originators sold over $4bn "rate sheet influential" MBS today, $2bn of which was ...
Thu, Aug 6 2009, 1:38 PM
The White House today responded to recent questions raised, among other places, by an article in today's Washington Post, about the potential phasing...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 12:04 PM
In mortgage world, the "rate sheet influential" FN 4.5 has recovered early morning losses and rallied back up to yesterdays range. Although prices hav...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 10:15 AM
Profit takers are out in stock markets this morning, leading TSYs rate sheet influential MBS prices higher. The Federal Reserve will be conducted coup...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 8:33 AM
The AM So Far...
* 4.5's down 10 ticks so far this AM...
* Insult to injury for TBW devotees...
* ADP employment "less bad"... Down...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 5:21 PM
Overnight market movements saw MBS and Tsy's move to their worse levels since mid July. Shortly thereafter weaker than expected ISM data gave equitie...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 4:06 PM
Early in the session stocks showed signs of weakness, allowing TSY and "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons an opportunity to rally to the highs of th...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 3:03 PM
The S&P has broken the 1,000 price mark, unfortunately since the yield curve and MBS are taking directional guidance from the stock lever....the 10 y...
Wed, Aug 5 2009, 2:10 PM
This far into 2009 we've become almost spoiled by a pleasant lack bank failures among the most common names to the mortgage crowd. Chases TPO drama w...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:05 AM
Further selling has been observed in the long end of the yield curve....pushing the 10 yr TSY note to an intraday high of 3.70%. Two attempts to recov...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 10:02 AM
Following a better than expected Pending Homes Sales print (+3.6% vs. expected +0.6%), the 10yr TSY note yield rose 7bps from 3.58 to 3.65. Consequen...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 8:13 AM
Recap of Previous Session
* Big 'Ol Sell-Off yesterday following hit after hit from the "recovery monster."
* ISM and Construction Spendin...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 5:02 PM
In case you missed the most recent commentary, start with that as there is no fundamental change to the price action between then and now. Additional...
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 3:57 PM
If you were here yesterday, then consider yourself excused from today... Although it would have been nice to know this before you came in I suppose.....
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 1:06 PM
At our lowest point so far this AM, the 4.5 touched levels around 99-20 when one includes the more outlying type trades that we tend to see courtesy o...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:08 PM
Beyond stop out selling...activity in the 10 yr TSY note has been somewhat subdued today. Here is a chart of the 10 yr TSY Sept. Futures contract. Not...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:09 AM
After the ISM manufacturing PMI number came in higher than expected (48.9 vs. 46.2)...the 10 yr TSY yield rose from 3.56 to 3.62 and the "rate sheet ...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 8:28 AM
Recap Of Previous Session
* Very Stable, Very Nice Friday Rally took us nearly as high as we've been since Black Wednesday
* Stocks gained...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 6:04 PM
Strong Chinese manufacturing data followed by a better than expected Eurozone PMI print coupled with "recession may be over" comments from Alan Greens...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 2:45 PM
You would expect all hell to be breaking loose in TSYs given the dollar weakness and optimism in equities, however we are just kinda hanging out at th...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 12:56 PM
Happy Friday...
This is simply a chart illustrating the continued rally in MBS and Treasuries. This puts us on the high side of this week's trend ch...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 11:08 AM
As originators scramble with last minute closings (not so much with new TIL) there has been an end of month hustle and bustle about the MBS market thi...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 8:30 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* 7yr Auction much better than previous auctions this week.
* Good midday support from internal trendlines
* MBS fo...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 5:02 PM
Have you noticed a lack of MBS specific analysis lately?
We havent been discussing MBS duration or educating on embedded options. We've left out sp...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 3:03 PM
Answer: When prices are better by half a point on the day with absolutely no volatility...
The half point improvement portion of the above answer i...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 11:46 AM
One has to assume that, based on the results of the previous three auctions (good demand for 20 YR TIPS, crappy demand for saturated 2s market, crapp...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 10:21 AM
Although many might expect the stock rally to cause chaos in the TSY market as portfolio allocations favor riskier stocks....the 10 yr is holding stea...
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