Wed, Aug 26 2009, 10:11 AM
Is data driving the markets? Economic reports? Stocks are up and bonds have ticked down slightly. So does this mean that it was the better than exp...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 8:38 AM
The AM So Far...
* Tsy futures were down slightly overnight, but have since met yesterday's lowest levels
* Durable Goods up 4.9 versus +3...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 5:25 PM
MBS levels and mortgage rates take a fair amount of guidance from the shape of the yield curve. My view is that changes in the shape of the curve, and...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 3:37 PM
In the secondary mortgage market, volume was on par with the already low 30 day average. Trading flows, although balanced, once again reflected late s...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 2:05 PM
After hitting intraday highs following the 5yr auction, rate sheet influential MBS prices fell 6 ticks (6/32) to the lows of the day. Although we are ...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 11:38 AM
Fundamentals have helped restore status quo. Fundamentals have provided a feeling that the worst of the storm is behind us. But fundamentals are unabl...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 8:27 AM
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to be Reappointed. Statement from President Obama expected at 9AM. Wall Street likes this move as it keeps those familiar wi...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 5:00 PM
Even in the time that intervened our afternoon post and the close, MBS moved yet higher and tsy's yet lower. But just as we start passing out grains ...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 3:28 PM
The charts tell the same story that we set up for this AM in that the early data had little to no impact on trading action with auction providing the ...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 1:38 PM
The Treasury Department just auctioned off a record $42 billion 2 yr notes (second auction at this amount). 92% was awarded at the high yield of 1.119...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 1:01 PM
* High Yield of 1.119%
* 92.32 % taken at high yield
* Bid To Cover 2.68
* 48.6% indirect bid
Initial reaction in MBS is a SHORT s...
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 11:16 AM
While many market participants were enjoying time away from desks last week, we anxiously awaited some stability in the secondary mortgage market. Unf...
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 8:48 AM
The AM So Far...
* Tsy Futures moving steadily downward since open. At 116-27 after being as high as 117-02. Friday's high was 118-19
* ...
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 5:08 PM
Although the day began on an ugly note with MBS reaching as low as 99-15, an early stabilization followed by some friendly news from the Fed and what ...
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 3:48 PM
In the absence of market moving data, benchmark TSY prices have ticked to the highs of the day. Gains were sparked after a round of short covering ear...
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 1:45 PM
Attention Freddie Mercury! Answer a question for us please. We occassionally mention not to place too much significance with trading that occurs on ...
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 12:10 PM
Although the bond market withstood negative fixed income fundamentals yesterday...today's trading flows dont tell a similar story. Back to "Whats good...
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 10:01 AM
Existing Home Sales +7.2% higher. Annual rate 5,240,000 sales per year. Data much better than anticipated 4,-890,000 sales per year. Stocks instantly ...
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 8:32 AM
10 yr Treasury futures hit 118-18 high overnight. Gains however lost early this AM after stock futures started to tick higher at 1AM est. TY currentl...
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 5:05 PM
Over 100 years ago, a principle was suggested by Charled Dow which eventually became central to technical analysis. In fact, several principles sugge...
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 3:33 PM
If you think of this AM's data giving bond prices a forceful and extended push lower, we are now at the point where the guiding hands are removed and ...
Fri, Aug 21 2009, 2:39 PM
After spending most of the week trading over par, the "rate sheet influential" FN 4.5 MBS coupon has fallen back below 100-00. Lenders have repriced f...
Thu, Aug 20 2009, 11:44 AM
Its definitely been a choppy morning in MBS world. 100-08 one minute, 100-00 the next. PARNERTIA just keeps pulling on FN 4.5 prices. Fortunately, jer...
Thu, Aug 20 2009, 8:31 AM
Its summer. Range Trading in low liquidity = More up down up down price action. FN 4.5 MBS prices in the 100-00 handle and 5.0s trading over 102-00 = ...
Thu, Aug 20 2009, 5:46 PM
Despite some selling the the AM, summertime range-bound flows allowed prices to drift toward the higher end of that range. But that's really all this...
Thu, Aug 20 2009, 4:06 PM
Best levels of the day, best levels of the week... But write the same sentence and substitute "worst" for "best," print the resulting sentence on a p...
Thu, Aug 20 2009, 2:01 PM
Summertime status quo seems to be the theme in the rates market. Ignoring the volatile story our charts tell, its been an uneventful day in secondary ...
Wed, Aug 19 2009, 9:48 AM
"Rate sheet influential " MBS prices have fallen 8 ticks off the morning highs. I know a few lenders already published rate sheets. BEWARE of a recall...
Wed, Aug 19 2009, 8:41 AM
The AM So Far...
* Almost half a point up on overnight equities sell-off
* What's bad for stocks is good for bonds (most of the time)
...
Wed, Aug 19 2009, 5:29 PM
If it seems like discussions about "crossroads" and inflection points are commonplace, it's for several good reasons. In a general sense, it's the na...
Wed, Aug 19 2009, 3:31 PM
Ok, before you get your hopes up, the use of the word unimaginable was actually a literary device known as sarcasm. You see, under the conventions of...
Wed, Aug 19 2009, 1:03 PM
The stock lever's influence over the bond market has been quite obvious today. After reaching and intraday high of 100-11, we have fallen below 100-00...
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 12:52 PM
Prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are approaching reprice for the worse zone as the FN 4.5 is now 8 ticks (0-08) off morning price highs....
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 10:44 AM
Yesterday we enjoyed a "flight to quality" induced Treasury rally which lead "rate sheet influential" MBS coupon prices considerably higher. Higher MB...
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 8:36 AM
The AM So Far...
* Reconnection to fundamentals
* Data driving markets once again
* Tsy yields backed up big time overnight and this ...
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 5:10 PM
If one were to look up a definition of range-trading in the Encyclopedia of MG and AQ's Frequently Used Market Jargon, there would not be a standard d...
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 3:56 PM
Hoping a rapid return to fundamentals and the more correlative connection they provide between bond prices and data has today been giving a cautionary...
Tue, Aug 18 2009, 1:45 PM
If you've already seen a reprice for the worse, and additional one here may not be that likely. Conversely, if you HAVE NOT yet received a reprice fo...
Mon, Aug 17 2009, 11:19 AM
The S&P is holding at 980 after a considerable amount of panic selling this morning. The VIX, a read on market volatility, is 3.47 points higher...it ...
Mon, Aug 17 2009, 8:26 AM
The AM So Far...
* Risk averse trade taking over
* Overnight: Stocks Hurting, Dollar stronger, TSY futures Improved, Oil prices tick lower...
Mon, Aug 17 2009, 5:05 PM
As can be seen on the chart, MBS prices faded to black today just a tick under the 100-08 price from our aftertoon commentary. Even if they'd been a ...
Mon, Aug 17 2009, 3:59 PM
As MBS tick towards the close, we've pushed back into the middle (perhaps upper middle?) of the day's range. Risk of reprices for the worse are fadin...
Mon, Aug 17 2009, 1:52 PM
While benchmark TSYs are holding stable in the intraday range, the FN 4.5 is refusing to sustain higher prices. The FN 4.5 is feeling the effects of P...
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 12:34 PM
It's not out of the realm of possibilities to see a few of the more "jumpy" lenders take a few bps of YSP away based on the 8 tick drop that just occ...
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 10:37 AM
This week the Treasury Department successfully auctioned off $75 billion 3s/10s/30s...raising about $14 billion in new cash. So the latest round of au...
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 8:30 AM
The AM So Far...
* CPI Results
o UNCHANGED ( SAME AS CONSENSUS), EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.1 PCT)
o YEAR-OVER-...
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 5:49 PM
With this week marking what has been the most sincere "pause" in recent equities exuberance, are we FINALLY looking at at least a correction in stocks...
Fri, Aug 14 2009, 2:42 PM
The S&P is recovering a bit...trying to get back to the 1,000 mark. Trading liquidity is official DRIED UP in the bond market...If your lender didnt r...
Thu, Aug 13 2009, 10:35 AM
The Fed didnt offer up much new guidance yesterday, well I dont want to say they totally crapped the bed because they did draw out the end of the TSY ...
Thu, Aug 13 2009, 8:33 AM
The AM So Far...
* 4.5's up 5 ticks to 99-13 after being as low as 98-29
* Stock futures were quasi-soaring and fixed income was hurtin' f...
MBS Market Alerts
