Wed, Sep 9 2009, 5:37 PM
Except for a relatively short window of time, today was largely uneventful. Yeah, there were some fairly violent swings but those occurred in a compa...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 3:42 PM
After a little post auction chopatility, the FN 4.5 MBS coupon has recovered and is trading back in the green. This morning I asked readers to share p...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 1:16 PM
Chopitility is a way of life after auctions. And though the charts below tell a much different story than the wider view 2-day charts, it's something...
Wed, Sep 9 2009, 1:02 PM
10 yr Auction Results
* 2.77 Bid To Cover
* High Yield 3.51
* 78% taken at high
* Indirect Bid at $ 11 bln good for 55% indirect...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 11:44 AM
The morning content theme has centered around the notion that SUMMER IS OVER, TIME FOR MARKETS TO GET BACK TO WORK. Well, although that is indeed the ...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 8:37 AM
Overseas equity markets higher overnight...SHANGHAI, HANG SENG, NIKKEI, TOPIX, KOSPI, DAX, CAC, FTSE. Dollar weaker, Oil richer, Gold over $1,000. TS...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 5:00 PM
Anyone catch the reference to the "secret line" on Friday? I know most are eager to get out for the weekend, so by the time a closing commentary make...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 3:37 PM
In after hours trading, the FN 4.5 has found stable ground near the middle of its 2 day range. MBS trading volume was below average today. Originator...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 1:23 PM
Immediately following the auction, it would have been hard to pinpoint any significant data release simply by watching market prices for a reaction. ...
Tue, Sep 8 2009, 1:03 PM
results for auction of $38 bln of 3 yr notes
* high yield at 1.487%
* 54.6% of bids at high yield
* median yield at 1.43, right with ...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 12:26 PM
What's good for stocks is bad for bonds. Stocks are rallying and bonds are selling. Reprices for the worse are possible. The range should still modera...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 10:59 AM
The FN 4.5 has held a stable range after a bit of early morning volatility. Currently we are in a holding pattern right in the middle of the recent ra...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 8:35 AM
The knee jerk reaction to the headline was a drop in stock futures and rising TSY futures. However, the market quickly changed course...stock futures ...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 5:47 PM
I'm lamenting a wasted Friday... No point in sticking around today if you were paying attention up until NFP today. Everything should have been lock...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 4:02 PM
After bouncing off this AM's lows of 100-13 for the second time today, prices have formed a perfect triangle into the close--characteristic of so many...
Fri, Sep 4 2009, 1:44 PM
Yes it's Friday. Yes, volume is low. Yes, it's after 12:00 noon. Yes, flows at this time of day are seldom indicative of Monday's action, or at lea...
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 12:18 PM
Trading as been seasonally slow in the secondary mortgage market today. In the "to be announced" sector, mortgage originators have locked about $700 ...
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 8:32 AM
Lenders will likely be defensive ahead of tomorrow's job data/long weekend ahead/market going back to work (summer session almost over!!!). Dont be su...
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 6:18 PM
It might seem cliche, but everything really does come down to NFP tomorrow, and by "everything," I mean the next 6 weeks... In case you missed last n...
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 4:41 PM
Overall it has been a slow day in the rates market. Volume in TSY futures was below average. The 10yr Dec contract held a range between 117-20 and 117...
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 2:09 PM
Q: Is the MBS market doing good or bad today?
A: Yes
At the very least, you can draw on familiarity as a positive for today. Despite the signif...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 12:40 PM
Low volume... Low volatility... Low expectations... Low pulse...
Seems like some the "mood" that could be inferred from the lead-in wouldn't be ...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 10:57 AM
If stocks go higher...expect too see profit taking in the rates market. If stocks keep bouncing around flat for the day, we still might see profit tak...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 8:18 AM
So far this AM
* ADP employment down 298k, more than expected
* Still, we're shocked ADP is even line 1 news
* Mortgage Banker's Asso...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 6:28 PM
Generally positive, with significant downside risks in the short-term, with more uncertainty than normal... That's how I'm about to describe the outl...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 4:21 PM
I'm not happy about putting out this alert... It's the last hour of a low volume rally day and we're seeing losses that would justify reprices for th...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 3:26 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting are out and though no measurable response is present in MBS, at the very least, it can be said that the p...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 12:43 PM
After the initial knee jerk reaction to better than expected economic data, stocks rallied and the rates market sold off. However, shortly after marke...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 10:02 AM
Morning data is in....ISM Manufacturing 52.9 vs. 50.5 expected (48.9 previous), Pending Home Sales +3.2% vs. 2.0% expected (+3.6% previous), Construct...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 8:47 AM
MBS has one supportive event behind (month end index extension) and three more ahead. BEWARE: Rate sheet influential will sell off fast if benchmark y...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 4:44 PM
We're finally getting enough confirmation to begin to question the summertime range. How appropriate that the successful retest of recent highs comes...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 2:40 PM
At 1:23 PM we hit highs of the day at 100-26. Since then we're back down in a range that defines the lows of the afternoon which also coincide with t...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 11:40 AM
Annnnnnd we're back to the highs of the day. The FN 4.5 is currently +0-07 at 100-13. From the 20 some odd mainstream rate sheets we've seen...mortgag...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 10:08 AM
The FN 4.5 has fallen 6 ticks from a bid of 100-13 to 100-07. Currently the rate sheet influential FN 4.5 is +0-01 on the day after being as high as ...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 8:48 AM
The Week Ahead... Supportive time of month for MBS. Massive index extension means increased demand for longer life MBS (RATE SHEET INFLUENTIAL). Impli...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 5:58 PM
With prices hovering nearly a half point over par in 4.5's, these are the best levels since 7/31/09 which closed a scant 5 ticks higher at 100-20. Be...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 4:23 PM
Today's MBS rally was just too darn easy...speculative buying ahead of month index extension purchases added demand side support, then bid lists (BWIC...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 1:38 PM
Any time charts start to take shapes similar to those seen above, reprices for the better are usually not far behind. One thing we continually mentio...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 12:46 PM
I'm not exactly sure why, but even though we WRITE as if we expect price action like today's to occur, and even though it is getting to be less and le...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:12 AM
Prior to the data release the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low of 99-24. Usually this would warrant an MBS ALERT...but we didnt feel it was necessary, p...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 8:31 AM
After ignoring logic all week, we hope the range doesnt breakdown as traders look to return "status quo" to the rates market. This could result yields...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 5:17 PM
Cat Stevens was so close... If he had but included the word "trader's," his uber-hit could be dusted off and added to the market theme song shelf. I...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 3:35 PM
Although we would love nothing more than to tell you that the market will happily continue to trade in this narrow region...given the current "BETTER ...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 9:47 AM
Considering that the opening commentary rather casually discussed a 10 tick drop in prices, it occurs to us that this might cause a certain level of c...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 8:28 AM
* Mortgage Rate Negative outlook: holding this range in stocks makes it easier for market to accept these price valuations in the future.
* Mortg...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 5:45 PM
Another uninspiring and underwhelming day where after the customary bit of "chop-chop" (as in choppy price movements?) gives way to a fairly predictab...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 4:00 PM
From the influx of emails I received it appears many readers are reacting negatively to statements made by Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker this morn...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 1:55 PM
This is one of those MBS UPDATE's that was conceived as just that: a simple update on how the post-auction trading is going. Shortly before beginning...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 1:00 PM
The Treasury Department just auctioned $28 billion 7 year notes. This is the second consecutive auction at record size, July's being the first. In tot...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 12:59 PM
The Treasury Department has successfully auctioned $39 billion 5 yr notes. This is the second auction at this record size, July being the first. The b...
MBS Market Alerts
