Mon, May 17 2010, 6:32 PM
By and large, most technical frameworks through which we've been viewing the markets recently held up well today despite the selling in bonds. That s...
Mon, May 17 2010, 3:07 PM
Longer term considerations about today's relatively small movements will follow later in the day. For now, be aware of potential reprices for the wor...
Mon, May 17 2010, 1:49 PM
Treasury International Capital data (TIC data), which tracks foreign purchases and holdings of US securities, showed a sharp increase in monthly net h...
Fri, May 14 2010, 9:28 AM
Retail Sales were up 0.4% in April, this beat the Reuters survey consensus estimate of +0.2% but was sharply lower than the previous print of +1.9%. E...
Fri, May 14 2010, 6:59 PM
It is very tempting to advise floating in this situation. Mortgage rates are literally at their best levels of the year. Consumer borrowing costs real...
Fri, May 14 2010, 1:01 PM
Rate sheets were a bit delayed this morning as lenders scrambled to figure out what percentage of their pipeline would need float downs today. The gen...
Thu, May 13 2010, 10:53 AM
The pendulum swings one way and then the other. Markets are extremely noncommittal with Gold and the Euro being the only assets exhibiting significan...
Thu, May 13 2010, 5:09 PM
4.5's Go Out +0-06 at 101-07. MBS Current Coupon: -3.3bps at 4.303%. 10yr TSY 3.70 bps lower at 3.534%. Long Bond Auction Went Well. MBS spreads tigh...
Thu, May 13 2010, 1:54 PM
While the long bond refunding didn't go as well as the previous reopenings, it went well for a refunding. Direct bidders continue to be a massive sour...
Wed, May 12 2010, 10:06 AM
Wed, May 12 2010, 4:09 PM
The Budget deficit is at a record high. It's almost as if QE costs money, but then we're surprised when we get a report back that says we're spending...
Wed, May 12 2010, 2:01 PM
Direct bidders continue to show up as big U.S. debt supporters, indirect bidders were aggressive, taking home almost 70% of what they bid on (hit rate...
Tue, May 11 2010, 10:20 AM
With only low-tier data out so far today, the focus moving forward should be on the 3yr note auction. Recent bullishness in bonds, in general, is gen...
Tue, May 11 2010, 6:07 PM
t does seem that even those who see low interest rates prevailing (or even getting a bit lower) in the medium term, are still expecting some weakness ...
Tue, May 11 2010, 3:40 PM
The MBS coupons that determine rate sheet pricing are traded in the TBA MBS market. TBA = To be Announced. In the TBA MBS market, at the time a trade ...
Tue, May 11 2010, 2:21 PM
While the auction went well, benchmark Treasury yields were already being pressured higher by the stock level ahead of auction results.
Mon, May 10 2010, 10:12 AM
The originator friendly flight to quality that led benchmark interest rates 30 basis points lower last week is now being backed out of the bond market...
Mon, May 10 2010, 5:39 PM
The simple fact that stocks rallied big and treasuries sold similarly does not necessarily mean that "low rates" are heading higher due to the earlier...
Mon, May 10 2010, 2:45 PM
Equity markets are holding onto gains after experiencing an unexplained liquidity freeze and record price dip last Thursday. Benchmark interest rates ...
Fri, May 7 2010, 10:13 AM
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply, the U.S. Bu...
Fri, May 7 2010, 2:35 PM
What does it all mean? Not a clue, as always... But we'd watch the long term trends in 10's above all else, and have a little default assumption abo...
Thu, May 6 2010, 12:34 PM
Reprices for the better either have already hit, or soon will. Expect gravity around 3.49 in the 10yr, and a trampoline-like sheet of nearly impenetr...
Thu, May 6 2010, 10:12 AM
Productivity advances have served to limit further layoffs and keep inflation low....this a positive for the housing industry as controlled inflation ...
Thu, May 6 2010, 4:00 PM
4.5 MBS UP 16 TICKS AT 101-18. WERE AS HIGH AS 101-25. 10YR NOTE YIELDS DOWN ALMOST 20 BPS AT 3.38. DOW'S DOWN ABOUT 425. HIGH OF THE DAY: 10880. ...
Wed, May 5 2010, 9:05 AM
4.5's are up 7 ticks this AM at 101-05. Current Coupon Yield Spreads widest since Nov/Dec 09. 10yr yields down another 5bps at 3.54. Stock futures are...
Wed, May 5 2010, 5:43 PM
It's very uncomfortable for me to say that today's price action "confirms" the break to lower yields in treasuries. AQ mentioned the phrase "made of g...
Wed, May 5 2010, 3:09 PM
MBS up 7 ticks at 101-04. 10yr yields at 3.56, having traded from 3.61 to 3.49 today. Stocks rallied and fell again, not quite as bad as the open, bu...
Tue, May 4 2010, 9:58 AM
The stock lever's influence on interest rates is obvious...stocks down, interest rate prices up. A confluence of logic. The Euro is at a one year low....
Tue, May 4 2010, 6:12 PM
I'm just as hopeful as the next guy that stocks DO break lower and the 10yr DOES re-test 3.5 and the 4.5 DOES spend some more time in the 101's. All ...
Tue, May 4 2010, 2:12 PM
We have to remember WHERE the volume is coming from.. In this case, some potential reconcilable sovereign debt concerns. There was plenty of the sam...
Mon, May 3 2010, 10:18 AM
Japan and London are out on holiday so trading flows may be tempered by a lack of broad based conviction. This implies chopatility is highly likely. ...
Mon, May 3 2010, 6:36 PM
"The increase in borrowing and the higher cash balance were due to a combination of the increase in the SFP balance, higher receipts, lower outlays, a...
Mon, May 3 2010, 3:06 PM
The lack of conviction discussed in the AM post is obvious in both stocks and bonds today. The S&P is +1.47% at 1204.12. Essentially erasing the losse...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 10:45 AM
This is exactly why we have been preaching the fundamentals of GUTFLOP so much lately. PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL THE RANGE PLAYS YOU and LOCK AT THE PRICE ...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 6:52 PM
Month long rallies in and of themselves are sometimes sufficient cause for the momentum to take a break, either to merely "catch it's breath" or worse...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 2:22 PM
Take a careful look at the charts and how good your pricing is, and consider the trend channel in treasuries is now closer to indicating a move higher...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 10:43 AM
There is a ton of noise surrounding the marketplace at the moment, and it's coming mostly out of the EU. I don't see the trading environment acting a...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 6:36 PM
While a sell off may be in the cards, the recent movements, trends, and volume would put the onus for that more on the the strength or weakness of the...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 3:33 PM
Fannie 4.5's up 7 ticks at 100-21. 10's down a few bps from 7yr auction time at 1pm from 3.75 to 3.73. Stocks pausing at resistance, while bonds catch...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 2:17 PM
Same story as yesterday, just more pronounced. Strong demand from the right investors at the right yield. Dealers didn't have to do much heavy liftin...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 12:59 PM
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 10:25 AM
So does this stock selloff stick or is it viewed simply as an opportunity to buy the S&P below 1200? I say rip and run traders! Unless you think the w...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 5:19 PM
If you believe in the continuation of the existing trends/ranges, you understand we might be dealing with a probe to slightly higher yields, but conti...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 2:03 PM
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $42 billion 5 year notes. This was the 6th consecutive offering at this size and likely one of the last times ...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 12:23 PM
Looks like the market is favoring the flight to safety side of the "conflicting view" story I described in the OPEN. The stock lever has engaged in a...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 10:14 AM
In order for the 10 yr note to see much more positive progress, we need 2s to fall below 1.00% again. I doubt that will happen before the FOMC release...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 5:42 PM
It's hard to know how all this will play out in coming days, but I do think it's significant that we saw the highest volume in over a month a day BEFO...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 2:25 PM
Direct bidders offset a continued reduction in indirect demand while primary dealers mopped up the remaining mess. It always makes me nervous when dea...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 12:44 PM
As far as either breaking higher (in yield) over 3.84 or lower past 3.75 (resistance not shown on chart), a couple key events will be informative thi...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 9:02 AM
Main focus today will be on 10yr treasury futures charts for a couple reasons. First of all, treasuries (and especially futures) lend themselves exce...
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