Fri, Dec 20 2013, 1:19 PM
GDP was stronger than expected this morning, yet bond markets are
in stronger territory. Volume in MBS is light, but they're just
following Treas...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 12:55 PM
Check out the chart below for some rationale as to why this morning's
very very high Jobless Claims number failed to help MBS and Treasuries
gain ...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 8:43 PM
Bond markets began the day by extending yesterday's late weakness in somewhat of a panicky fashion. By tapering only
by a small amount and by pro...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 4:22 AM
The Fed tapered yesterday, and bond markets didn't freak out as
much as they might have. Immediately following the announcement, bond
markets wen...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 12:17 PM
While the most attention-grabbing headline of the morning so far has concerned the largest jump in Housing Starts since 1990,
the sharpest movem...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 9:36 AM
The FOMC Statement due out at 2pm will continue in the Fed's fine
tradition of keeping most of the text unchanged and merely updating key
sections...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 8:50 PM
After almost exactly half a year of discussing the mythical
"Tapering" as a possible outcome of an FOMC Announcement (there were
some grumblings a...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 7:56 AM
Let's skip to the important stuff about today. While there will be a
backlog of three months of Housing Starts data released in the morning,
as w...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggestsOctober indicates that economic activity has continued...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 11:45 AM
Seeing as how today is yet another mid-December day that doesn't
contain the long-awaited FOMC Announcement, it's proving to be just
another incon...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 6:59 AM
The Week Ahead spells out the theme of the week and recaps the market exhaustion leading
up to it. Those themes remain in force until tomorrow's...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 5:32 PM
It's never fun to be wrapping up our assessment of one major economic event with the conclusion that nothing really matters
until the next one. I...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 11:56 AM
More than any other day so far in December, today is chock full of that special holiday spirit
that makes for almost inconsequentially light activ...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 7:24 AM
Exhaustion was evident in last week's bond market trading. We discussed that " year-end exhaustion " quite a bit in this post .
To make a long st...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 5:13 PM
MBS are heading out right in line with Friday's latest levels. The day began well, and bond markets even made gains
following the stronger-than-e...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 12:43 PM
"Exhaustion" was the theme of this morning's commentary , and today's price action is confirming that .
One of the byproducts of exhaustion is a ...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 7:16 AM
It's been a rather exhausting year for bond markets. Unlike the past
3 years, 2013 marks a substantial dose of selling. Not only that, but
the s...
Fri, Dec 13 2013, 4:47 PM
One of the bullet points in this morning's commentary said "bond markets
would rather be napping." As it turns out, they made that dream a
realit...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 12:36 PM
The Jobless Claims is one of the cornerstones of the economic data
environment. It prints every week, same time, dame day. It's
relatively easy ...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 4:39 PM
Bond markets moved back and forth within fairly narrow ranges
today, although most of that sideways movement took place at weaker
levels. This wa...
Thu, Dec 12 2013, 2:54 AM
In general, Treasury auctions haven't elicited as much reaction on
the part of MBS as they did back in 2008-2010 when markets were still
feeling o...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 12:53 PM
Treasuries were only moderately weaker overnight despite the
potential for a "QE off" move after yesterday's budget deal
announcement ("QE off" c...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 7:40 AM
The big news for mortgage markets out last night is the confirmation
of Mel Watt to take over for Demarco as FHFA Director (technically, Watt
will...
Wed, Dec 11 2013, 5:32 PM
After bond markets showed a surprising amount of strength following NFP,
we'd discussed to possibility of a more developed bounce back lasting
any...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 12:11 PM
Times are strange in early December. First off, we have bond
markets generally stronger despite Friday's better-than-expected NFP.
While we've b...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 7:17 AM
After yesterday's lackluster, if positive, session, today holds the
promise of slightly more participation. Not only are Tuesdays generally
a bet...
Tue, Dec 10 2013, 4:21 PM
Both Treasuries and MBS continued the trend of post-NFP
improvements today, paradoxical though they may be. The only apparent
threat to the posti...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 11:51 AM
Bond markets have been utterly silent so far today with stable, narrow trading ranges, no significant events, and limited volume.
Treasuries held a...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 7:12 AM
Last week was certainly interesting due to Friday's post-NFP movement
in MBS. After the stronger headline came out (203k payrolls vs 180k
forecas...
Mon, Dec 9 2013, 4:55 PM
Monday got off to an uneventful start as overnight markets were
exceptionally calm. MBS opened flat and added a few ticks in the
morning hours. ...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 12:38 PM
We've been discussing the past few days in the context of the Gorilla Analogy . If you did catch this morning's commentary, it's even more timely ( ...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 4:37 PM
"So long MBS and thanks for putting up with all the abuse!" That
might be a caption for today's Employment report. In a way, it's like a
consola...
Fri, Dec 6 2013, 1:08 AM
If you missed it by any chance, yesterday's Gorilla analysis
is worth a read. Yesterday's activity is well-explained in the context
of that an...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 12:33 PM
Production MBS are only 3 ticks down on the day at the moment, which
belies the volatility seen so far. Some of that is evident in the
pricing sn...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 5:10 PM
When this morning's economic data came out, stronger-than-expected
Jobless Claims and GDP combined to cause brisk selling at first. By the
end of...
Thu, Dec 5 2013, 1:18 AM
NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the chief component of Friday's Employment
Situation Report) is the most important piece of economic data on any
given mont...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 12:27 PM
The ADP Employment Report, as expected, was the biggest factor in
bond market movement this morning. After the numbers hit at 8:15,
volume popped...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 7:30 AM
MBS are having a bad few weeks since FOMC Minutes reignited a PORTION
of tapering possibilities in December. We say "portion" because it's
not ...
Wed, Dec 4 2013, 4:24 PM
Bond markets were treated to a surprise guest this afternoon as
"MBS outperformance" returned after being absent for nearly a month. In
other wo...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 12:45 PM
If this isn't the first time, then it's one of a precious few where
we've deigned to mention Detroit's bankruptcy saga, but there's a
chance that ...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 7:36 AM
As Friday's jobs report approaches, we're left to ponder how much
weakness we might see in MBS and Treasuries without actually getting the
strong ...
Tue, Dec 3 2013, 4:30 PM
MBS and Treasuries diverged again today. This road more-traveled
for MBS has several sources of justification and explanation, but it's
really th...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 11:49 AM
Treasuries drifted only moderately weaker as the first December
trading kicked off in Asian markets. 10yr yields rose to 2.76
initially, but move...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 7:55 AM
After last week's Thanksgiving holiday and bond market closures cast
some doubt as to whether or not we should put much stock in MBS
weakness, thi...
Mon, Dec 2 2013, 4:13 PM
Bond markets got off to a rough start in December. After moving
modestly higher in Japan and more convincingly higher in Europe,
interest rates o...
Fri, Nov 29 2013, 12:03 PM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Fri, Nov 29 2013, 1:26 AM
It's not at all likely that today's half-day will be able to do anything
to inform Wednesday's weak session for better or worse. Any strength
can...
Wed, Nov 27 2013, 12:14 PM
In homage to 2012, we have a fairly substantial Thanksgiving
sell-off on our hands. For what it's worth, the substantial
Thanksgiving sell-off of...
Wed, Nov 27 2013, 4:27 PM
Today offers a very interesting set of circumstances to consider
for MBS and mortgage rates. First, we can safely assume that rate
sheets have be...
Tue, Nov 26 2013, 11:38 AM
To be perfectly fair to Consumer Confidence, it certainly did not
cause any significant market movement this morning, despite its
potential to do ...
MBS Market Alerts
