Wed, May 21 2014, 4:07 PM
Today's news was largely out yesterday: the Fed will probably reevaluate their exit strategy last spelled out in 2011--yes, the 2011 that was 3 years...
Tue, May 20 2014, 12:03 PM
In general, Treasuries--or better yet, 'overall bond market momentum'--leads and MBS follow. But it does happen the other way around sometimes. Toda...
Tue, May 20 2014, 8:00 AM
The first two days of the week have essentially no actionable data on the schedule. The effects were made painfully obvious yesterday as bond markets...
Tue, May 20 2014, 4:39 PM
Bond markets started the domestic session in line with yesterday's latest levels, which were also yesterday's lows. Trading levels maintained a somew...
Mon, May 19 2014, 11:49 AM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit the 8am mark right in line with Friday's latest levels. As the domestic bond market session officially got underway with ...
Mon, May 19 2014, 7:55 AM
So far in the month of May, MBS have been making much bigger day to day moves than in April. But it's worth remembering that things can get a lot m...
Mon, May 19 2014, 4:06 PM
Heading into the last hour of trading, MBS have undone the past three days of gains. Such a statement is a bit more palatable when the MBS hit their ...
Fri, May 16 2014, 12:54 PM
Thank goodness for a boring day. The alternatives would be that the mega-rally of the past two days extends further, which causes all sorts of probl...
Fri, May 16 2014, 7:54 AM
Despite an abundance of economic data yesterday, domestic bond markets were instead focused on navigating trading ranges past and present. The stron...
Fri, May 16 2014, 3:58 PM
Although it's true that bond markets moved into weaker territory after this morning's data, it's even more true that the weakness looks like a mere c...
Thu, May 15 2014, 12:37 PM
Even seasoned market-watchers might be thrown for a bit of a loop by today's surprisingly strong bond market rally. After all, we just had a surprisi...
Thu, May 15 2014, 8:00 AM
Today is by far and away the busiest day of economic data this week. This presents a good opportunity to feel out what's important to the bond market...
Thu, May 15 2014, 4:11 PM
To be fair to the entire bond market, Treasuries actually didn't fade that much. After making it into the 2.47's, 10yr yields are drifting sideways...
Wed, May 14 2014, 12:08 PM
Even if we were being as pessimistic as possible and making every excuse for the 2014 trading range, there's no way to put a caveat on today's levels....
Wed, May 14 2014, 7:51 AM
Heading into the end of last week, bond markets were like a space shuttle preparing for launch. The earth was like a 10yr Treasury yield at 2.57 and ...
Wed, May 14 2014, 5:31 PM
Even though mortgage rates hit multi-month lows several times in the past 2 weeks, today is significant in that Treasuries finally broke the range. S...
Tue, May 13 2014, 12:00 PM
MBS and Treasuries began the day in unchanged territory. There was a bit of a positive backdrop in place from overnight news that Germany's central b...
Tue, May 13 2014, 7:54 AM
Bond markets have arguably been trading in accordance with the mainstream technical suggestions. Specifically, there are several technical studies so...
Tue, May 13 2014, 3:57 PM
Until this morning, recent momentum in bond markets was clearly and cleanly pointing to a correction within the recent range, where rates would move h...
Mon, May 12 2014, 11:58 AM
It's been a slow morning so far, and utterly lacking in overt inspiration. More simply put, we haven't seen any movement in Treasuries or MBS linked ...
Mon, May 12 2014, 7:51 AM
Over the weekend, events that have been labelled by some as 'referendums' took place in several of the most embattled regions in Ukraine. Not surpris...
Mon, May 12 2014, 4:25 PM
Compared to the 9 ticks of price weakness in 10yr Treasuries (+3.1 bps), Fannie 3.5 MBS were only off 5 ticks and Fannie 4.0s just 3 ticks in the fina...
Fri, May 9 2014, 11:58 AM
Bond markets are just slightly weaker, and have thus far been doing a decent job of keeping those losses contained. There hasn't been much by way of '...
Fri, May 9 2014, 7:42 AM
First thing's first: "mortgage rates" themselves, have clearly already broken the 2014 range, having moved into the best levels since late October o...
Fri, May 9 2014, 3:11 PM
The focus of the week for MBS and rates should be on the fact that we made it to levels not seen since the end of October 2013. With 6 out of the la...
Thu, May 8 2014, 12:01 PM
Europe and the US serenaded each other this morning with a hot rendition of "Dueling Bankers." Not to be confused with dueling banjos, this song feat...
Thu, May 8 2014, 7:42 AM
Thursday is probably the most action-packed day of the week for MBS. It gets most of the way there by being a fairly action-packed day for bond marke...
Thu, May 8 2014, 4:40 PM
Right from the outset, seemingly strange things were happening as 10yr yields looked much higher on charts, yet were reported as being slightly lower ...
Wed, May 7 2014, 12:40 PM
Bond markets have been slightly more active today both in terms of volume and volatility. Overnight trading was essentially a wash. 10yr yields were...
Wed, May 7 2014, 7:42 AM
Bond markets put in another strong day yesterday, returning to the strongest end of their respective ranges after losing just a bit of ground to start...
Wed, May 7 2014, 4:07 PM
Bond began the first few minutes of the day in slightly weaker shape, but ended the day in positive territory after Yellen's congressional testimony a...
Tue, May 6 2014, 11:02 AM
So far this week, stocks and bonds have generally been moving together again after a bit of disconnection last week. Equities futures fell graduall...
Tue, May 6 2014, 8:00 AM
There was a Bloomberg article out on Sunday night that quickly made rounds in financial markets and among market watchers. It isn't 'in your face...
Tue, May 6 2014, 4:19 PM
Calmly and coolly, MBS marched to the best levels of the year this afternoon, and for no particular reason as far as today's events were concerned. ...
Mon, May 5 2014, 11:45 AM
Bond markets have been fairly calm this morning, even if slightly weaker after the ISM Non-Manufacturing data (aka ISM Services). Before that, ther...
Mon, May 5 2014, 7:54 AM
Last week ended in ground-breaking fashion with bond markets clawing into positive territory despite a substantially better-than-expected Employment S...
Mon, May 5 2014, 4:15 PM
After Friday's orgiastic frenzy of bet-making and profit taking, bond markets sat back in their seats and abstained today. In poker terms, this is a ...
Fri, May 2 2014, 12:17 PM
This has been one of the craziest NFP mornings I can remember--probably THE single most paradoxical reaction at first glance. Granted, bond markets...
Fri, May 2 2014, 7:42 AM
Unless you're just looking at the recent behavior in interest rates for the first time in months, you're well-aware that they've been stuck in a range...
Fri, May 2 2014, 3:41 PM
In looking at yesterday's activity in bond markets, we could see some level of determination to rally regardless of the incoming economic data. The c...
Thu, May 1 2014, 12:02 PM
10yr yields had been careful to avoid dipping below yesterday's latest levels until after all of this morning's data was out of the way. Once it was,...
Thu, May 1 2014, 7:38 AM
There's no way to be excited about bond markets right now! That is, unless you want to be excited about the fact that things are making great sense...
Thu, May 1 2014, 4:03 PM
Bond markets had a great day today, but the greatness isn't entirely logical ( ironic headline choice this AM , no? ). While there was some economic...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 11:04 AM
The blue line is stocks; yellow is 10yr yields. When we see a chart like this on the last 2.5 days of the month-- ESPECIALLY when the recent norm has...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 7:18 AM
As a quarterly report with monthly updates, GDP releases are slightly different from month to month. The order is: advance, preliminary, and final. ...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 3:54 PM
Heading into the last hour of trading on this all-star day, bond markets have moved at a fairly average pace, albeit in rate-friendly directions. The...
Wed, Apr 30 2014, 1:59 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met
in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up
recently, after...
Tue, Apr 29 2014, 12:16 PM
The overnight session was nominally weaker for Treasuries, but there was limited activity overall as Japan (the key participant in US Treasuries durin...
Tue, Apr 29 2014, 7:48 AM
To be perfectly fair to financial markets, "things could get serious" at any moment really, it's just that the events that are more predisposed to bri...
Tue, Apr 29 2014, 3:34 PM
It was a generally quiet day for bond markets, though that wasn't destined to be the case at the open. Treasuries had weakened slightly overnight and...
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