Mon, Sep 23 2013, 4:40 PM
Several lenders were out with improved rate sheets this afternoon, as reported in real time by MBS Live
members. The underlying strength making su...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 7:48 AM
Thinking about bond market trading levels in the context of "battle"
is fun. Analogies make technical concepts easier. So here's a brief
battle ...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 4:53 PM
When we talk about consolidation, we're generally talking about MBS
Prices or interest rates moving counter, in some way, to a larger or
longer-te...
Fri, Sep 20 2013, 1:07 PM
With nothing on the calendar but Fed speakers and being a " quadruple witching "
day, we stood a chance to see some volatility this morning. So far...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 12:19 PM
It's been an interesting session so far. MBS came in the door in
line with yesterday's latest levels, digested an oddly flavored Jobless
Claims r...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 7:24 PM
There's a decent enough chance that if you didn't know what happened
yesterday, today's weakness would be just as frustrating as any other
weaknes...
Thu, Sep 19 2013, 6:56 AM
Yesterday rocked, plain and simple. A dichotomy had arisen between
the ostensible course of Fed policy and it's increasingly clear impact.
In ot...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 12:44 PM
MBS and Treasuries are now back in to their best levels of the day
(pricing snapshot below is taken just after 11am, but we've improved
since then...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 8:29 AM
There are two kinds of market watchers in the world: those who
believe the Fed plays the largest role in setting the pace of big
movement in bon...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 5:03 PM
A "facemelter" is a long-standing MBS Live term for a gigantic rally
in MBS prices. The Fed caused one today by flipping the script on
market exp...
Wed, Sep 18 2013, 2:09 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met
in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate
pace. So...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 12:08 PM
From this morning's MBS Live Update: The inevitable pall of silence leading up to FOMC Wednesday is much more
evident this morning, without the dist...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 6:40 AM
Larry Summers gift to bond market trading on Sunday/Monday was that
we now have the honor of approaching Wednesday's FOMC events with the
"Larry S...
Tue, Sep 17 2013, 5:41 PM
We've been waiting for tomorrow, specifically, for nearly 4 months.
Competing reactions to the key components in the FOMC data make for an
utterl...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 12:03 PM
On Sunday evening, Larry Summers announced his withdrawal from
consideration for the Fed Chair position. Stock and Bond futures
rallied big durin...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 7:25 AM
From the moment the Fed officially began considering a reduction in
asset purchases in late June, and even when unofficial consideration
ramped up...
Mon, Sep 16 2013, 4:32 PM
Interest rates have been determined and methodical about their slog
higher from May 2nd levels. That's been well over a full percentage
point bot...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 11:54 AM
For bond markets, it's another day of "positivity, but with a
catch." That's been the case with every single drop of positive
momentum this week!...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 4:43 PM
It takes some measure of bravery to bet big rates moving
significantly lower or higher from current levels when the rest of the
market is so decid...
Fri, Sep 13 2013, 1:43 AM
At this point, next week's FOMC events are on a pedestal so high that
their actual stature may be hard-pressed to live up to the legend.
After al...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 8:14 AM
Yesterday traded like the Thursday of an auction week rather than a Wednesday, in that there was a noticeable sigh of relief
in bond markets after...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 4:34 PM
Today's commentary began with the observation that yesterday seemed
more like the culmination of an auction cycle than the middle of one.
Today's...
Thu, Sep 12 2013, 1:22 PM
Treasuries were stronger overnight as Asian accounts kicked off the
session piling in to the same post Verizon/10yr Auction positivity seen
during...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 6:46 AM
Even with backs already up against a wall, bond markets still managed
to find a way to be weaker on Tuesday. Perhaps this means we need to
adjust...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 5:15 PM
MBS began the day roughly in line with yesterday's latest post-roll
levels (meaning October's 30yr Fixed Fannie/Freddie MBS opened today
where the...
Wed, Sep 11 2013, 1:13 PM
The 10yr Auction just came in much stronger than expected. Bond
markets had been volatile ahead of time as the massive Verizon corporate
bond off...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 12:56 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory with a number of
factors eligible for blame. Overnight data was stronger in China and
Europe.n Te...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 6:43 AM
Tuesday sees the inception of both the Treasury Auction cycle and the
MBS Settlement cycle for the week and month. For MBS, this merely
means tha...
Tue, Sep 10 2013, 5:25 PM
At this point in the day, it looks like MBS will be able to make it
to the exits with sustaining any major damage on top of that which was
already...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 12:15 PM
Treasuries were strong and steady overnight, building the sense
that Friday afternoon's weakness was more a factor of investors pulling
up stake f...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 6:37 AM
After Friday's Employment Situation Report posed just as many questions as it cleared up, we now move on to the countdown for the next watershed even...
Mon, Sep 9 2013, 4:25 PM
There's very little to observe and even less to conclude about the day
of MBS trading so far. Fannie 4.0s have held within 2 ticks of 102-24
sinc...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 11:39 AM
If you've ever willingly sought and and enjoyed vanilla ice cream,
then you're already familiar with the flavor of today's bond market
rally. The...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 7:35 AM
Today we will receive long-awaited data that does more than anything
else to confirm or reject the notion of September tapering than anything
else...
Fri, Sep 6 2013, 5:25 PM
Treasuries and MBS were coming off a rough day heading into this
morning's Employment Situation Report. 10yr yields hit their highest
levels and ...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 12:37 PM
This risk that today's session would bring a pre-NFP "lead off" in
the event of stronger data is coming to nauseating fruition before our
eyes. 1...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 8:02 PM
There's little left to say about today that hasn't already been said in the earlier MBS MID-DAY .
As that post notes, seeing bond markets take a "l...
Thu, Sep 5 2013, 7:49 AM
Since the methodology change, 7 out of 9 reports have accurately
predicted the direction of movement in the official private payrolls
tally from...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 12:02 PM
Overnight markets were relatively uneventful with moderate weakness for
Treasuries during Asian hours and a slight recovery during European
hours....
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 6:38 AM
Typically, the Wednesday before an NFP Friday would bring ADP Private
Payrolls at 8:15am, but due to the holiday-shortened week, ADP will now
arri...
Wed, Sep 4 2013, 4:32 PM
Focusing too closely on the events and market movements of this
single session could make for challenging and unsatisfying analysis.
Instead, if ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 12:29 PM
Even before this morning's economic data, bond markets were in
weaker territory as the US played catch up to the rest of the world's
Monday tradin...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 8:22 AM
As certainty of the Fed's intent to reduce asset purchases at the September meeting has waxed and waned (and waxed again), one thing
has remained ...
Tue, Sep 3 2013, 4:30 PM
The first day back after Labor Day weekend offered a bit of excitement
with bond markets on the ropes right from the start. This was primarily
a ...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 11:19 AM
Bond markets were flat for most of the overnight session before weakening in tandem with late European data and early domestic trading. 10yr yields w...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 5:41 AM
For more reasons than meet the eye, the 3-day Labor Day weekend
coming up is the most relevant near term consideration for markets.
There are oth...
Fri, Aug 30 2013, 2:56 PM
In the spirit of a day where many market participants are leaving
early, here's an sneak preview of a recent MBS Live update that would
normally a...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 12:17 PM
It's been an interesting morning so far for bond markets, even if
it's ultimately to be inconsequential. Indeed, the message is being
sent that m...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 7:29 AM
Bond markets have increasingly shown their hand regarding Syria-related headlines and their ability to influence a flight-to-safety
(where stock p...
Thu, Aug 29 2013, 4:58 PM
Essentially, nothing has changed since the mid day commentary. The
intro section there is the best recap of why today happened the way it
did. ...
MBS Market Alerts
