Wed, Oct 23 2013, 4:30 PM
Since 8:40am yesterday morning, bond markets have been exceptionally
calm compared to past examples of decently sized moves following the
monthly ...
Tue, Oct 22 2013, 12:42 PM
Today's Employment Situation Report--rescheduled from the original
October 4th release data--has been easily up to the task of inspiring a
break o...
Tue, Oct 22 2013, 6:55 AM
Will absence have made the heart grow fonder when it comes to bond
markets' affections for the payrolls data? Yes, it already has. If
Treasuries...
Tue, Oct 22 2013, 4:28 PM
In the first few seconds of trading following this morning's NFP
release, 10yr yields dropped from 2.59 to 2.54. From there, they eased
gently lo...
Mon, Oct 21 2013, 11:49 AM
Bond markets were just slightly weaker overnight, but Treasuries
held inside Friday's range at first. Fannie 3.5 MBS opened just in line
with Fri...
Mon, Oct 21 2013, 7:50 AM
For all the sound and fury produced over the past two weeks, trading
levels in bond markets returned more-or-less in line with the trajectory
that...
Mon, Oct 21 2013, 5:08 PM
Today's session could as easily not have happened, and it wouldn't
change anything about the bigger picture. The same could be true for
most any ...
Fri, Oct 18 2013, 12:46 PM
Yesterday's rally was strong. Today, not so much. That's OK
because if we were to extend the rally (2 day rally, really, totaling
over a point o...
Fri, Oct 18 2013, 7:22 AM
Clues provided by early overnight bullishness in bond markets were
accurate in that both Treasuries and MBS returned to the ranges that had
recent...
Fri, Oct 18 2013, 4:50 PM
When the potential government shutdown became an increasing reality
into late September, bond markets entered in to a narrow, sideways
range. Whe...
Thu, Oct 17 2013, 12:32 AM
Congress apparently thought the 10/17 debt ceiling deadline was a
much bigger deal than financial markets. It's not that markets didn't
perceive ...
Thu, Oct 17 2013, 11:59 AM
After adding half a point yesterday, Fannie 3.5 MBS are up another half
point today (Fannie 3.5s as of 11:55am) as the ill effects of the
governme...
Thu, Oct 17 2013, 6:39 PM
Surprisingly enough, after the government shutdown, both Treasuries
and MBS are back to levels they were trading at- well--before the
shutdown. T...
Wed, Oct 16 2013, 7:14 AM
When was the last time there was any meaningful level of interest in the Fed's Beige Book ?
Some economic releases, if you're not waiting for the ...
Wed, Oct 16 2013, 4:37 PM
Somehow, the same debt deal (or similar anyway) that caused
problems for bond markets yesterday, ended up being the leading suspect
behind a solid...
Wed, Oct 16 2013, 1:21 PM
Treasuries and MBS have had varying reactions, at times, to fiscal
headlines. In one moment, bond markets may have weakened in response to
the pr...
Tue, Oct 15 2013, 12:25 PM
Bond markets began the day preemptively weakened by headlines out on Monday suggesting the Senate was working on a deal
that would fund the governme...
Tue, Oct 15 2013, 7:17 AM
The week begins largely where the previous week left off: with bond markets seemingly scared
of any sort of debt-ceiling resolution. The move low...
Tue, Oct 15 2013, 5:07 PM
Bond markets began pouting even before they were open, according to
movement in Treasury futures during yesterday's bond market closure.
The nega...
Fri, Oct 11 2013, 7:37 AM
Well... The bulk of the prose-based commentary was just accidentally
divulged in the bullet points above. There's not much more to it
really. We...
Fri, Oct 11 2013, 6:34 PM
Bond markets came into the session on a stronger note. They looked
intent on bouncing back from yesterday's somewhat troubling weakness.
Everyth...
Fri, Oct 11 2013, 1:16 PM
Please note that the pricing snapshot below is from earlier in the morning before
we got hit with mid-day weakness. Before that, bond markets came ...
Thu, Oct 10 2013, 12:58 PM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Thu, Oct 10 2013, 4:28 PM
Though somewhat of a hollow victory, bond markets improved after
today's strong 30yr bond auction. It was hollow in the sense that the
gains mere...
Thu, Oct 10 2013, 1:21 AM
Markets have clearly begun pricing in various levels of default risk
for the US. Sounds scary, but it's not the first time and it won't be
the la...
Wed, Oct 9 2013, 12:36 PM
Part of the explanation for today's movement lies in yesterday's
events. Notably, we saw the biggest spike yet in 1-month Treasury
Bills. This i...
Wed, Oct 9 2013, 6:51 AM
These are not normal times. While this could have been said at many
points since the onset of the financial crisis, they're perhaps even
more abn...
Wed, Oct 9 2013, 4:32 PM
Bond markets began the day in roughly the same territory they
occupied at the end of yesterday. MBS prices had an artificial deficit
due to the r...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 12:37 PM
Referring to today's movements in MBS with the word "volatility" may
be a bit generous considering we haven't even traversed half of
yesterday's r...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 6:52 AM
With the government shutdown ongoing, there continues to be a severe restriction
on relevant economic data. Unfortunately, "relevant economic dat...
Tue, Oct 8 2013, 4:48 PM
Bond markets put on a clinic today, demonstrating just how intent they
are on doing absolutely nothing. It may not have seemed like much of a
fea...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 7:44 AM
Uncertainty and paralysis were the themes that pervaded last week.
Those are likely to continue for bond markets as long as the shutdown
persists...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 5:32 PM
There are several different iterations of "Shutdown Limbo," they're
all essentially the same dance at the end of the day, especially this
one! Re...
Mon, Oct 7 2013, 1:55 PM
The week has begun in the same sideways fashion that dominated the
entirety of last week. 10yr yields continue to orbit around 2.615,
moving more...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 7:53 AM
Yesterday was very telling in 2 important ways. First of all, it
confirmed that no one knows what the heck they're going to do until they
get the...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 5:06 PM
If we take every price from every minute of MBS trading so far in
October, the average Fannie 3.5 price is 101-26, precisely where it's
coasting o...
Fri, Oct 4 2013, 1:14 PM
Sometimes there are a lot of headlines and events to discuss, but
this isn't one of those times. There's nothing new or meaningful to add
beyond ...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 12:01 PM
ISM's Non-Manufacturing Index has always been a relevant market
mover, but especially so during in recent months. Today's rivals
yesterday's ADP ...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 8:20 AM
At least a few pundits yesterday said directly or alluded to the
notion--in not so many words--that the Fed didn't matter as much this
week becaus...
Thu, Oct 3 2013, 4:52 PM
Of all the times that a government shutdown could take the monthly
jobs report offline, this week may have been one of most challenging to
deal wi...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 12:18 PM
Bond markets traded reasonably well overnight, improving at first, but
giving up ground as the domestic session got underway. By 8am, MBS and
Tre...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 4:50 PM
Bond markets began the day relatively close to Tuesday's latest
levels and were soon in rally mode owing to the weaker-than-expected ADP
Employmen...
Wed, Oct 2 2013, 1:37 AM
Weeks that contain the Employment Situation Report (NFP) are
supposed to be all about NFP. Yet here we are in the midst of a
government shutdow...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 11:59 AM
MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary
++INSERT COMMENTARY HERE++
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 7:01 AM
The day is young, but at midnight eastern, we have no Shutdown
resolution and the Senate is ostensibly out until 930am ET. Overnight
markets gree...
Tue, Oct 1 2013, 4:39 PM
Bond markets were ready to take short term guidance from the
"government shutdown" resolution or lack thereof. This has been far
from a primary m...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 12:24 PM
Bond markets started the day in slightly stronger territory though
remained in line with Friday's latest levels. Overnight events were
supportive...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 7:17 AM
A lot about how the week shapes up depends on what happens by
midnight tonight with respect to the 'government shutdown.' The
government agency r...
Mon, Sep 30 2013, 4:50 PM
In the context of the nearly month-long rally in place since Sep
6th, today's MBS movements were more volatile than average. Fannie
3.5s started...
Fri, Sep 27 2013, 12:34 PM
MBS began the day in an unassuming stance. Treasuries had just
rallied sharply in the overnight session with 10's moving from 2.67 to
under 2.63,...
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