Fri, Sep 12 2014, 4:35 PM
Actually, the last 2 weeks have been ugly for bond markets. It's almost as if a switch was flipped as soon as September began.
Just when ...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 12:05 PM
After 8 days in throes of volatility and weakness, bond markets are finally catching a small break today. For now, it's no more than a half-hearted...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 7:31 AM
When we talk about the 'longer term trend' these days, we're referencing the slow and steady improvements for bond markets that began in early 2014. ...
Thu, Sep 11 2014, 4:26 PM
It was a bit of a cruel session for bond markets as the day started out in stronger territory only to sell off with less than 2 hours to go. After 8 ...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 12:41 PM
Fannie 3.5s are down 10/32nds from yesterday's latest levels. Keep in mind that today's prices reflect October coupons whereas yesterday's were based...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 7:33 AM
Yesterday's mid-day commentary did a good job of summing up the general malaise in bond markets. Revisit it HERE if you like, but here's the impo...
Wed, Sep 10 2014, 5:00 PM
Whiel we could see some sort of technical bounce or a data-driven consolidation of recent trading patterns, bond markets have generally been on a tear...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 12:13 PM
Negative momentum has been pervasive in September so far. Even the brief rally after Friday's jobs report failed to get yields back down to Thursday'...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 7:39 AM
September has been decidedly negative for bond markets so far, and largely without any regard for economic data and events. Given that 'month-end' ...
Tue, Sep 9 2014, 4:40 PM
NOTE: Tonight is "the roll" for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS. That means that September coupons will be done trading at the end of business tod...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 12:43 PM
Monday continues to look like a mere shadow of the trading days at the end of last week. For example, Fannie 3.5 MBS have been in a range between 1...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 7:33 AM
Compared to last week, we have fewer potential market movers on the calendar in the week ahead. But that doesn't make it any less important. If anyt...
Mon, Sep 8 2014, 4:37 PM
Bond markets started the day in stronger territory, but well-within the range set by Friday's trading. Treasuries took cues from Europe amid limited ...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 12:20 PM
Treasuries and MBS dodged a bullet today in that a strong showing from the Employment Situation Report (aka "NFP" for the primary component: nonfarm...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 7:31 AM
Bond markets are vulnerable right now--perhaps more vulnerable than they've been for several months. During that time, they've taken on an air of n...
Fri, Sep 5 2014, 5:05 PM
Some movies are interesting and dramatic in a way that real life tends not to be. This even applies to many TV series where the protagonist "solves" ...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 7:31 AM
The European Central Bank (ECB) announcement hits at 7:45am this morning and ECB President Draghi does the usual press conference at 830am. With th...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 5:04 PM
Most every indication we've had from economic data in recent months has been that it just doesn't matter that much to bond markets. Treasuries, esp...
Thu, Sep 4 2014, 1:00 PM
It's been a busy morning for bond markets, with lots of economic data as well as the European Central Bank Announcement and Press Conference. Several...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 12:40 PM
Today's entire trading session centers on one key event: an overnight announcement that a Ukraine Ceasefire had been agreed to by both 'sides.' Bond...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 9:11 AM
Yesterday marked the most abrupt day of selling in bond markets since the end of July. In some ways, it was a wake-up call as to the time of year, ...
Wed, Sep 3 2014, 5:11 PM
In terms of interesting, singular market-moving events, only one thing happened today. It was at 4am that headlines came out suggesting a ceasefire b...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 12:54 PM
Bond markets had been setting up for the extended weekend by being cautious about getting caught on the wrong side of this week's trade. Consider the...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 7:25 AM
While the week ahead is shorter than normal thanks to Labor day, it's no less relevant. In fact, it's probably quite a bit more relevant than anyt...
Tue, Sep 2 2014, 4:35 PM
Fannie 3.5s stayed inside a 4 tick (.125) range today despite a round of upbeat economic data at 10am and a clear trend toward higher yields in Trea...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 12:23 PM
Right there in the title of the first commentary of the day: "more economic data that probably won't matter." There's always some small tinge of doub...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 7:42 AM
NOTE: Bond markets and mortgage lenders (and banks, among other things) will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.
This morning's headline suggests t...
Fri, Aug 29 2014, 4:07 PM
Overnight trading was uneventful for bond markets and made for a just slightly weaker open for both Treasuries and MBS. Economic data was completely ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 11:42 AM
Even the confirmation of a 4%+ GDP and the strongest read on Pending Home Sales in 11 months were not enough to wrest control of bond market momentum ...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 7:28 AM
Today is the busiest day of the week for domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions. The 8:30 time slot brings Jobless Claims and the 2nd revisio...
Thu, Aug 28 2014, 4:45 PM
In yesterday's recap, we discussed the phenomenon whereby most of the market movement has been happening overnight during these Euro-centric times, ...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 11:46 AM
Bond markets began the day much-improved after a strong overnight session. Economic data was pervasively weaker in Europe and expectations for Eu...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 7:27 AM
When Q1 GDP first came out weaker than expected and was subsequently revised all the way to -2.9%, it put a damper on many assessments of US economic ...
Wed, Aug 27 2014, 4:57 PM
Both MBS and Treasuries started the day in good shape as a bout of universally downbeat data washed over the Eurozone. Speculation for some measure...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 12:29 PM
Bond markets started the day little-changed from the previous session and having seen little volatility overnight. Although it wasn't destined to b...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 7:31 AM
A cute little phenomenon got a fair amount of buzz on an otherwise slow news day yesterday. It has to do with today's Durable Goods data and the fact...
Tue, Aug 26 2014, 4:31 PM
The last week of Summer continues to be the last week of Summer as far as markets are concerned. Email auto-responders are working overtime, parents ...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 12:23 PM
In more ways than one, today has been ' modest ' for bond markets. The overnight session was slower than normal, even for a Monday due to a bank holi...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 7:40 AM
Few pieces of domestic economic data have caught the attention of bond markets recently. That's not to say there haven't been short term reactions to...
Mon, Aug 25 2014, 4:57 PM
The biggest story and smallest surprise of the day was the fact that trading conditions in bond markets were extra light. Between the market closur...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 12:36 PM
J-Hole Knee-Jerk: A brief, but volatile market reaction to Fed Chair Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
That's been the day's primary ...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 7:31 AM
Yellen delivers the keynote speech at Jackson Hole today. What does that even mean? I remember being somewhat perplexed by the unclear significance ...
Fri, Aug 22 2014, 5:05 PM
With limited interruptions, bond markets have been sleepwalking since most of the summer. While that has afforded them some measure of forward prog...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 11:18 AM
It's been a pleasantly resilient day for MBS and Treasuries so far. After a completely uneventful overnight session, both opened just slightly weak...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 7:42 AM
Today's calendar of scheduled events is the busiest of the week with Jobless Claims at 8:30am followed by Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales at 10am. ...
Thu, Aug 21 2014, 4:29 PM
One week ago tomorrow, Treasuries fell to their lowest yields in over a year after Ukraine said it blew up part of a Russian convoy. Until yesterday ...
Wed, Aug 20 2014, 12:25 PM
MBS are outperforming Treasuries today and have been flirting with positive territory heading into the noon hour. Treasuries are still about 1bp hi...
Wed, Aug 20 2014, 7:28 AM
Bond markets have endured 2 days of losses so far this week. Both days have also been prime examples of illiquid summertime trading. This simply mea...
Wed, Aug 20 2014, 5:19 PM
Bond markets have a secret. Or rather, we have to pretend like it's a secret in order to turn something very boring into something remotely interesti...
Tue, Aug 19 2014, 12:33 PM
Relative to yesterday's exceptionally linear trading, prices have been much more volatile today. The overnight session was constructive for global ...
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