When did our business start with the catchy slogans? Stay alive in ’25? Stay in the mix in ’26. It’ll be heaven in ’27. How about, “Try to earn a little revenue every day, day after day.”? Smart mortgage bankers look at units, not dollar volumes. If an LO does $5 million in a month, is that one $5 million loan or ten $500,000 loans? And if your cost per loan is $11,000, on a $5 million loan that is good, since the monthly hit is $11,000, but on the ten loans it would be $110,000. Cost per loan… what are you trying to do to improve your pull through, and not spending money on credit reports on loans with little chance of funding? After all, higher pull through automatically lowers your cost per funded loan. On a larger scale, IMB numbers are dropping as lenders merge, are acquired, or throw in the towel. Lenders have certainly adopted ARM, home equity, and non-Agency products. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by The Big Point of Sale, which delivers a fast, flexible, and low-cost mortgage POS that gets lenders up and running in hours (not months) while empowering loan officers and consumers to collaborate seamlessly from any device. Interview with ALTA’s Chris Morton on why seller impersonation and wire fraud persist despite heightened awareness, what new and harder-to-detect schemes are emerging, how the industry can balance speed with security, and how shifting market and technology conditions will shape the next wave of fraud risk and preparedness.)

Employment

“Candidates looking for new opportunities should look at the motivation for someone approaching you with opportunities. Some are like fast food: Quick pitch, cheap promises, looks good in the moment, but leaves you feeling worse later. Why? Because fast food is designed around their margins, not your health. Some that you may encounter are the same: selling what their company wants, not what you actually need. A nutrition coach is different. They listen, look at your long-term goals, and create something sustainable. That’s the difference between being sold and being represented. At Z Talent, we take the nutrition coach approach to careers: listening, advocating, and aligning with what’s best for you, even if it’s harder work. We listen to your preferences, learn what you and your family need, and “design meals” around you. That’s what an agent does: independent, aligned, no hidden agenda. That’s why you should work with an Agent: ztalent.org.”

Evergreen Home Loans™ continues to expand its footprint nationwide, driven by a commitment to relationships, reliability, and real results. We’re hiring Branch Managers and Loan Officers who want to grow with a company that’s proven its strength through decades of market change. Evergreen’s Security Plus Seller Guarantee™ stands as one of the longest-running and most trusted programs in the industry, offering up to $10,000 to sellers if a loan doesn’t close, and, more importantly, offering confidence that it will. Add in programs like CashUp™ and Construction Loans, along with a leadership team that prioritizes your success, and you’ve got a partner built for longevity. If you’re ready to join a lender that’s still growing and still keeping its promises, Evergreen is ready for you. Visit discoverehl.com or contact Todd Miles, EVP of Production Growth.

Jim Finucane on Why radius is the Team Loan Officers Deserve: “I joined radius because they don’t just talk about making mortgages better, they actually do it. This is a team that’s built for collaboration, real results, and winning in any market. And when you work with people who are dialed in and engaged, the work just feels different. If you’re looking for a fresh perspective and a team that actually listens, let’s chat. The right conversations lead to the best opportunities. Jim Finucane, SVP of Sales, radius financial group inc.

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking for a diverse product group to create lasting client, Realtor and builder relationships. At Banner you have Portfolio lending, Construction to Perm financing, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, VA, and USDA along with equity products for HELOC, bridge financing and Lot Loans to serve your clients. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking to create or build onto their career with support for homebuyer education, CRA lending (state bond and Portfolio) as well as access to internal and external DPA to add value to your eligible clients and make more loans possible. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

What a Hodge Podge of News Recently

Investors in fixed-income securities base their decisions on buying securities on the economic outlook. What will happen to inflation in Japan? How might politics in Iceland impact its economy. What are the measures of housing and jobs data telling me about the United States? Now that the government shutdown has ceased, probably temporarily, news has been flowing from the federal government as well as private sources.

For example, home prices rose 1.3 percent YOY in September, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The housing market's deceleration accelerated in September, with the National Composite posting just a 1.3 percent annual gain, the weakest performance since mid-2023. For those who prefer looking at the glass being half empty, this marks a continued slide from August’s 1.4 percent increase and represents a stark contrast to the double-digit gains that characterized the early post-pandemic era. National home prices continued trailing inflation, with September’s CPI running 1.7 percentage points ahead of housing appreciation. This marks the widest gap between inflation and home-price growth since the two measures diverged in June, with the spread continuing to widen each month.

The deceleration in home prices was particularly pronounced in Florida and Texas. Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Boston, New York, Charlotte, and Atlanta saw the most home price appreciation.

Yes, it was from back in September, but Retail Sales rose 0.2 percent MOM while August was revised to a 0.6 percent increase. The September Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation rose 0.3 percent MOM and 2.7 percent YOY. If you strip out food and energy, it rose 0.1 percent MOM and 2.6 percent YOY. These numbers do not signal runaway inflation and give the Fed some more comfort that inflation is not re-accelerating.

Pending Home Sales rose 1.9 percent in October, according to NAR. "The Midwest shined above other regions due to better affordability, while contract signings retreated in the more expensive West region," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Days on the market typically lengthen from November through February, providing better negotiating power to buyers during the holiday season."

Consumer sentiment slipped in November, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. “Consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10 percent, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly. By the end of the month, sentiment for consumers with the largest stock holdings lost the gains seen at the preliminary reading. This group’s sentiment dropped about 2 index points from October, likely a consequence of the stock market declines seen over the past two weeks."

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell slightly from 4.6 to 4.5 percent. Long-term inflation expectations fell markedly from 3.9 to 3.4 percent.

What’s a Fed President to do? What will happen December 10th? Expectations are still for a quarter-point “risk-management” cut.

Capital Markets

With the Fed entering its pre-meeting blackout after today’s short session, and officials showing little urgency to adjust messaging amid strong market confidence in a December rate cut, the risk is that policymakers could disappoint investors if they are not actually leaning toward easing, potentially triggering further volatility; we’ve already seen expectations for a rate cut in a week and a half swing from around 30 to 80 percent over the course of the last several trading days. Expectations are still for a quarter-point “risk-management” cut and that data before the January meeting will support further normalization, while recent market action has strengthened the Treasury bid: 10-year yields briefly fell below 4 percent as weak labor indicators from ADP, softer core-PPI, and mixed retail sales reinforced expectations of cooling economic momentum.

Mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries were mixed on Wednesday heading into the holiday, with shorter maturities slipping while 10-year and 30-year Treasuries extended their rally amid data showing lower jobless claims, firm durable orders, and weak Chicago PMI. Despite an overbought technical setup, analysts see limited risk of 10-year yields returning to 4.25 percent, expect support near 4.00 percent to hold as markets move past peak macro fears, and anticipate further curve normalization as investors price in a December cut and look ahead to 2026 policy easing. And mortgage rates fell in Freddie Mac’s latest week’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, with the 30-year rate declining for the first time in four weeks. For the week ending November 26, the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates both fell 3-basis points to 6.23 percent and 5.51 percent, respectively. From a year ago, rates are 58-basis points and 59-basis points lower.

Today’s economic calendar, and month-end trade, brings no data or events but an early close for both equities and bonds: 1:00pm ET settlement for futures and 2:00pm ET close for cash bonds and stocks. We begin this post-Thanksgiving Friday with Agency MBS prices better by a few ticks (32nds) versus Wednesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.47, and the 10-year yielding 3.99 after closing Wednesday at 4.00 percent.