“Yesterday I was devastated to learn that the 2025 Psychic Prediction Convention was cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.” Yesterday, while the stock price of Better (BETR) zoomed to the moon (who saw that coming?), the audience at the Loan Vision Innovation event heard from the MBA’s VP Marina Walsh who, speaking for the MBA’s economics team and looking into the future, is seeing signs of a slowdown. “We haven’t felt the full impact of the tariffs yet. Job growth is slowing, and job search times have increased.” The MBA believes that we’ll see 2-3 fed funds cuts coming up, but expect minimal impact on mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields. So don’t expect 30-year rates to drop below 6 percent. But “flash” refi opportunities will continue to appear, with some companies better at acting quickly than others. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae believes that mortgage rates will end 2025 and 2026 at 6.4 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively, according to the September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s podcasts are sponsored by BeSmartee, the most innovative mortgage technology platform for banks, credit unions, and non-bank mortgage lenders. Hear an interview with FutureWave Finance’s Steve Thomas on the capital markets landscape, focusing on mortgage rate dynamics, policy transmission, shifting market share between CFIs and non-banks, and the impact of demographic trends amid a pause in product innovation.)

Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

Mortgage Lenders: Get Ready for the Next Era of Lending Tech! Outdated software slowing you down? Relief is almost here. Gridavate is launching a modern SaaS solution built specifically for today’s mortgage lenders. With advanced fraud detection that is fully customizable, automated workflows, and continuous real-time Watchlist Monitoring, available as an integrated feature or a stand-alone solution, Gridavate delivers the insights you need to protect your pipeline and your bottom line. Seamless integration and intelligent alerts make it easier than ever to mitigate risk, ensure compliance, and eliminate costly manual errors. Get ready… Gridavate is coming soon. Learn more here or contact info@gridavate.com.

"Find me borrowers who are in the best position to refi their mortgage and remove PMI in Phoenix AZ." Model Match's Borrower Insights breaks down the walls, giving loan officers unprecedented access to our complete loan transaction database from 2017 forward. ​​It's never been this easy and affordable to identify any borrower, in any market, and reveal deep intel like interest rate, equity position, home valuation, borrower contact information and real estate agent info completely on-demand. From reconnecting with past borrowers to building a fresh pipeline of new opportunities, Borrower Insights changes everything. Hundreds of Loan Officers are already leveraging AI to connect with ready to refinance borrowers in their market. Ready to transform your business? Model Match is the most affordable market intelligence platform starting at $29/month with a 14-day free trial. Start your free trial, and then jump on the Borrower Insights early access list here.

According to Pew Research, about half of U.S. adults (51 percent) lived in middle-income households in 2023. But here’s the twist: many down payment programs set income limits well into six figures. Of 2,578 programs, 1,599, or 62 percent, have average four-person household income limits above $100,000 across their footprints. That means many of your homebuyers, yes, even those you thought were “too well-off,” could qualify for programs for help with down payments, an interest rate buydown, closing costs or just giving them some extra cash for a “rainy day.” Curious where your buyers land? Check out Pew’s middle class income calculator. Want to unlock more closings? Meet Down Payment Resource at MBA Annual, October 19–22, at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas to see how DPA fits right into your pipeline. Reserve your spot now.

Sagent and IHFA forge new path in default servicing with Dara Claims! Big news. Sagent has partnered with Idaho Housing & Finance Association (IHFA) to pioneer an end-to-end default servicing solution using Dara Claims, bringing speed, precision, and cost-savings to a critical part of mortgage servicing. In under 60 days, IHFA integrated Dara, automating claims for all investor types and streamlining what had been manual, time-consuming workflows. The result? Fewer unreimbursed losses, lower operating costs, and more resources freed up for affordable housing programs across Idaho. Sagent’s vision: harness tech to power successful homeownership. Dara Claims isn’t just feature rich. It’s mission focused. Servicers who are ready to modernize default servicing and reclaim costs should watch this space. Check out the full press release announcement here.

Originators know the value of staying in touch, but sorting through old loans using spreadsheets can be time consuming. With Fannie Mae forecasting mortgage rates to settle around 6.5 percent by year-end, now is the time to revisit your closed loan portfolio. Capture for Originators, available through the Optimal Blue® PPE, is the modern, proven technology behind smarter recapture and retention. Powered by automation and real-time data, Capture for Originators automatically analyzes your closed loan portfolio and surfaces refinance opportunities, factoring in lender fees and current pricing from the Optimal Blue PPE. Deliver personalized presentations to borrowers quickly and confidently, with no manual data pulls and no missed chances. Just smart, automated insights that help you recapture more and build lasting loyalty. It’s a better way to work, and a smarter way to grow. Ready to turn yesterday’s closings into tomorrow’s revenue? Start with Capture for Originators.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Correspondent and Broker Products

“Your database is a goldmine... Stop digging blind. ReverseMatch from Finance of America uncovers the reverse mortgage opportunities just waiting to be claimed. It’s secure, simple, and fast, with results and an action plan delivered in under a week. We’ve already uncovered over $10 billion in potential loans for our partners. Ready to start digging? Fill out this form (it takes less than a minute) and our team will be in touch. Finance of America NMLS #2285”

“At NFTYDoor, we’re setting the standard for HELOCs: the fastest closings in the industry and the highest conversion rates. How do we do it? Proprietary tech and machine-driven decisioning that streamline every step plus a deep bench of seasoned mortgage professionals and customer-care experts who treat your business like their own. The result: borrowers get to the closing table in record time, while our partners see more deals funded and happier clients. If you’re already with NFTYDoor, you know the difference. If you’re not yet a partner, now is the time, because speed and certainty win in today’s market. Email us.”

Flyhomes announced it will exit the real estate brokerage business and focus exclusively on distributing its flagship Buy Before You Sell products through wholesale channels. The company will transition its real estate agents to another brokerage platform, making the final step in the company’s strategic shift to a third-party distribution model. “We invented and refined our products through years of serving consumers and gaining a deep understanding of their needs and pain points,” said Tushar Garg, co-founder and CEO of Flyhomes. “After completing billions of dollars in transactions, this move completes our shift and focus to wholesale lending and lets us scale Buy Before You Sell through the professionals homebuyers already trust.” All Flyhomes brokerage operations will be discontinued by the end of the month as the company’s agents will transition to another brokerage. All currently active brokerage clients will transition with their agents. Going forward, the company will concentrate its efforts exclusively on enabling lender partners to offer Flyhomes’ bridge financing solutions, including through third-party real estate agents.

Capital Markets

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered no hints on whether he might support a rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next month, but did proffer in remarks yesterday that the policy rate is still moderately restrictive and equity valuations are fairly highly valued. Yes, the Fed will be taking steps toward a neutral policy rate in the coming quarters, but the size and timing of the rate adjustments are data-dependent, rather than preset. Without any major top-tier data releases this week to disrupt the broader macro narrative, upcoming sentiment and survey-based reports will play a key role in shaping expectations ahead of the September employment figures.

Yesterday's 2-year Treasury auction saw lukewarm demand, with yields landing almost exactly where expected, though both dollar demand and indirect bids fell short of recent averages. Interestingly, the 2-year yield ended the day exactly where it was on September 5, the morning August nonfarm payrolls were released. Despite supportive economic data and a seemingly dovish Fed stance, the lack of movement highlights the market’s muted response in the part of the curve most sensitive to future Fed policy. Sometimes the bond market says more by doing nothing at all.

And the preliminary September S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMI readings indicated both sectors of the economy were operating in an expansion mode, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than the prior month, and at the slowest pace in three months. Both gauges remain above the demarcation line for expansion and contraction, although activity in both cases decelerated slightly from August. While the group’s measure of prices paid for materials climbed to a four-month high, the prices-received gauge retreated to the lowest level since April, as cooler demand limited the ability of companies to raise prices and offset tariffs. Input prices in the service sector rose to their highest since May.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications increasing 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 19. Later today brings new home sales for August (expectations are for 625k versus 652k previously), a flurry of Treasury activity (that will be headlined by auctions of $28 billion reopened 2-year FRNs and $70 billion 5-year notes, before a buyback in 1- to 10-year TIPS for up to $750 million), and remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly. We begin Wednesday with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Monday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.57, and the 10-year yielding 4.11 after closing yesterday at 4.12 percent.