Wed, Apr 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an inter...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as bond markets continued a mildly weaker trend for the month of April. Bonds (which underlie rates) are under press...
Wed, Apr 18 2018, 9:31 AM
The term "earnings season" gets thrown around quite a bit in financial news, but what is it, exactly? Simply put, it's a period of several weeks each...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 4:47 PM
With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks ...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates had a calm day. Lenders who had offered improved rate sheets yesterday afternoon didn't see much reason to drop rates any further today...
Tue, Apr 17 2018, 10:16 AM
Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as t...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 5:20 PM
Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. T...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at higher levels, as bond markets lost ground overnight. Bonds dictate rates, and "losing ground" means bond prices are f...
Mon, Apr 16 2018, 10:10 AM
Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 8:33 PM
Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's ...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher for most lenders today even though underlying bond markets suggested the opposite. This is partly a timing issue. ...
Fri, Apr 13 2018, 9:56 AM
I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this mor...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 7:49 PM
At first glance, today was all about a de-escalation of yesterday's Syria rhetoric from Trump (re: "missiles"). Given that we were able to credit yes...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 6:29 PM
A day after hitting the lowest levels in more than 2 months, mortgage rates bounced back up today. The good news is that they didn't land too far from...
Thu, Apr 12 2018, 9:32 AM
On a week where the calendar of events had every right to push bond yields more decisively away from their most important recent technical level (2.79...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 6:37 PM
Bonds were set to begin the day in fairly unchanged territory when Trump tweeted about launching missiles at Syria and forcing Russia to try to shoot ...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates technically hit the lowest levels in 2 months today. The catch is that they were already pretty close and that today's improvement wasn...
Wed, Apr 11 2018, 8:30 AM
Bonds were flat yet again in the overnight session, but began to improve after Trump tweeted "get ready Russia," missiles "will be coming" in respon...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 6:17 PM
For bonds (and almost for S&P futures as well), today was spent in roughly the same range as yesterday and well-within the range boundaries set by Fri...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged again today. Some lenders were slightly higher in rate, but not enough to affect the average. Underlying bond ma...
Tue, Apr 10 2018, 9:19 AM
Although today's 8:30am data has the trigger phrase "price index," it's not the price index you're looking for. That will come tomorrow in the form o...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 5:04 PM
Without any major events or data on the econ calendar, it was a calm and relatively inconsequential day for bond markets. Yields stayed (mostly) in...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher to begin the new week, depending on the lender. Even in cases where rates rose, the increase was modest ...
Mon, Apr 9 2018, 9:34 AM
If you're a 10yr Treasury yield in 2018, you don't simply have free reign to enjoy yourself at yields under 2.80%. That's a right and a privilege for...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 5:16 PM
It would be hard to have any discussion about important technical levels in 10yr Treasury yields recently without 2.79-2.80% coming up early and often...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved back down to yesterday's levels after a much weaker read on job creation from the Labor Department. In general, weak economic dat...
Fri, Apr 6 2018, 9:34 AM
NFP came out much weaker this morning (102k vs 190k forecast). That's a fairly weak reading, and a bigger "miss" than we normally see. Importantly t...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 4:42 PM
I'm running out of ways to talk about trade-war-related headlines driving risk-on vs risk-off movement in stocks and bonds. In case you've missed i...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today as trade war fears waned for financial markets. There's not a direct connection between trade issues and mo...
Thu, Apr 5 2018, 9:07 AM
The month of March was characterized by 10yr yields repeatedly bouncing at a floor of 2.80% in terms of 10yr yields. At the time, I argued that--whil...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 4:18 PM
On a few occasions during the past few weeks, I've brought MBS underperformance to your attention. Specifically, MBS and mortgage rates hadn't been...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. That presents something of an opportunity because underlying bond marke...
Wed, Apr 4 2018, 9:57 AM
Although preliminary news was out yesterday about China potentially announcing retaliatory tariffs on the US, that announcement was officially made ov...
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 4:18 PM
Granted, it's an on-again, off-again relationship between stock prices and rates, but it's been "on" for the past few days. Today was no exception....
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, on average, even though underlying bond markets suggested a move higher. We talked about the stock/bond relatio...
Tue, Apr 3 2018, 9:05 AM
Yesterday's recap focused on the on-again, off-again relationship between stocks and bonds. Specifically, bonds don't always follow stocks or vice ve...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 5:20 PM
One of my favorite recurring observations about financial markets is that the classic concept of "stocks vs bonds" doesn't always work. That's the on...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as underlying bond markets generally followed a much bigger move in stocks. It's a common misconception that stocks a...
Mon, Apr 2 2018, 9:20 AM
Last week saw a potentially significant development for bond markets with the break below key technical levels in 10yr yields and the yield curve. Fo...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 2:46 PM
Bond markets closed early today and will be fully closed tomorrow for the Good Friday holiday. It was also "month-end," which can bring in additional...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 2:28 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, although a few lenders offered slight improvements. This stands in contrast to the noticeable improveme...
Thu, Mar 29 2018, 8:55 AM
10yr yields had 3 big bounces at 2.80% in March, making it the only obvious candidate for the lower boundary of the recently sideways range. It was f...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 5:13 PM
US bond markets improved in the overnight session as European markets drove yields lower around 3am. US 10yr yields fell below 2.75% as a result, an...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, keeping/bringing them in line with the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks (depending on the lender...
Wed, Mar 28 2018, 9:18 AM
Without a discussion on important technical levels and without looking at one of several pieces of technical analysis, yesterday looks like any other ...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 5:23 PM
I'm not sure I've heard anyone genuinely say "oh my!" by way of exclamatory response in quite a while. But the odds increased today with a rather sur...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 4:51 PM
As of yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates would be more interested in staying in a narrow, sideways range for the holiday-shortened Spring Break/...
Tue, Mar 27 2018, 9:02 AM
Whether we're looking at shorter-term or longer-term charts, we're left with the sense that bonds aren't very interested in following any other market...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 5:16 PM
With last Thursday's rally, bonds had a chance to challenge the prevailing sideways range (from 2.80-2.91 in 10yr yields). Friday's weakness was set ...
Mon, Mar 26 2018, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates moved sideways to slightly higher today, keeping them in an exceptionally narrow range that's persisted for the entire month of March. ...
