Fri, Nov 3 2017, 6:30 PM
This is more of a recap of the week as a whole because if I tried to just cover today, the screen would look too blank! NFP came out weaker than expe...
Fri, Nov 3 2017, 5:55 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly sideways today although a few lenders offered token improvements. When we talk about small improvements in "mortgage rates,...
Fri, Nov 3 2017, 8:29 AM
On average, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the Employment Situation report which also refers to the broader report itself) is the biggest ...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 6:46 PM
Traders' eyes were far more burdened than their fingers (which push the "trade" button) today. There was a ton of info to take in regarding the GOP's...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 5:52 PM
Mortgage rates improved moderately today following the release of the GOP tax bill and confirmation of Jerome Powell as Trump's Fed Chair nomination. ...
Thu, Nov 2 2017, 9:13 AM
There are only so many ways to say the same thing, but I'll at least update the chart to show that bonds remain inside the same boundaries we've been ...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 4:45 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, on average, as bond markets backed away from their stronger levels seen during the last 2 days of October. ...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 2:09 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and...
Wed, Nov 1 2017, 9:04 AM
Friday and Monday were (relatively) great days for bond markets. For our purposes, at least, they signified an important push back against the more...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 4:48 PM
Today was the last day of trading for the month of October. That means money managers had to get a certain amount of bond buying accomplished in orde...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, despite an absence of improvement in underlying bond markets. That's not too surprising considering the average ...
Tue, Oct 31 2017, 9:12 AM
While the broader uptrend in rates remains technically intact, the first trading day of the week pushed back in a friendly direction. In fact, it was...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 4:16 PM
Bonds began the day in stronger territory, generally riding a wave of momentum from late last week on fresh speculation that Trump would nominate Jero...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates recovered even more of their recent losses today, following reports that lawmakers were considering "phasing in" a 20% corporate tax ra...
Mon, Oct 30 2017, 9:14 AM
Wednesday brings this year's 2nd to last installment of Fed policy announcements, and those announcements have certainly been ramping up in terms of s...
Fri, Oct 27 2017, 6:44 PM
If nothing else, today made it clear that markets care about the next Fed chair... a lot! Despite the presence of GDP data, Consumer Sentiment, and...
Fri, Oct 27 2017, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates recovered some of their recent losses today, with most lenders moving back into Wednesday's territory. The improvement followed another...
Fri, Oct 27 2017, 9:02 AM
Yesterday afternoon's MBS Recap is a good read if you want a longer and more philosophical version of what I'm about to write (click the link to read ...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 7:13 PM
If you haven't seen Zoolander, you won't be familiar with Billy Zane declaring "It's a walk-off," thus beginning the runway modeling battle between Be...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates are in a bit of trouble, having moved higher at the fastest pace since late June in the past few days. If you've had occasion to read a...
Thu, Oct 26 2017, 8:34 AM
As today begins, the objective details of the ECB policy move are already out. With the exception the percent change in the € amount of bond purcha...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 6:06 PM
I saw an article from someone who typically does solid work claiming that the massive sell-off in stocks today was due to rising rates. Fortunately, ...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher at a relatively fast pace today, pushing farther into the highest levels since early July. As of this afternoon, the a...
Wed, Oct 25 2017, 9:49 AM
We'll get to the good news in a moment. Bad news is obviously the order of the day as bonds are starting out with a big break through important tec...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 7:17 PM
Yesterday's recap suggested the week had yet to officially begin and that Monday's trading session had been more of an unofficial 3rd day of the weeke...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates jumped abruptly higher today for many lenders after reports of an informal show of hands in favor of John Taylor as Trump's potential F...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 9:44 AM
We talked about yesterday being an unofficial 3rd day of the weekend in that trading volumes were light and the trading activity lacked conviction. T...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 5:42 PM
I refer to some Mondays as unofficial 3rd days of the weekend, and today's example qualifies. There were no significant economic reports, no substant...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today despite slight improvements in underlying bond markets. As of last Friday, the average lender was quotin...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 8:56 AM
While there are certainly some weeks with far fewer economic reports on tap, the week ahead is still on the light side when it comes to the data that ...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:53 PM
There's a good video in the news stream with Austan Goolsbee going on a bit of rant about how the Senate's procedural vote on a budget resolution late...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as financial markets grew more optimistic about the potential for tax reform. Late last night, the Senate passed a r...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 9:38 AM
It's a crappy day.
Sorry to use such an esoteric analytical term, but it's the most accurate way to describe the outlook. So what changed?
Lo...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 5:11 PM
It was a pretty interesting session for how narrow the range continues to be in bond markets--interesting both for bonds themselves and for the analys...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today. Political drama in Europe pushed stocks lower overnight and sent investors toward safer haven a...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 8:34 AM
The past 3 days were disconcerting for bond markets--especially yesterday, which saw yields move higher at their quickest pace in two weeks. This thr...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:58 PM
Everything seemed so simple last Friday when bonds were surging past technical barriers in strong volume--ostensibly ringing the dinner bell for mor...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher today despite bigger movement in underlying bond markets. In part, this is a byproduct of the way rates behaved a...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 9:43 AM
Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on ...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 4:52 PM
Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortuna...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates were at their best levels in roughly a month last Friday afternoon. Since then, they've risen modestly on each of the past two business...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 9:18 AM
As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds br...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. Underlying bond markets suggested a bit more movement, and that will l...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:01 PM
If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly inte...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 9:27 AM
It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 4:30 PM
There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to ...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 2:47 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today. For many lenders, it was the biggest drop in more than a month and it also brings them to the best levels in roughly...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 8:18 AM
My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberat...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 8:04 PM
Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the curr...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 7:19 PM
Mortgage rate data collection is tricky business . Some sources rely on survey data that can have a limited collection window and a significant lag. O...
