Mortgage rates improved again today, keeping the week-over-week move decidedly friendly. For more on the weekly move, see the in-depth discussion in yesterday's coverage (read more...). Long story short, the widely-followed Freddie Mac rate survey is always frequently cited in mortgage rate coverage from major media outlets on Thursday.  It can also be a bit stale due to its methodology.  In yesterday's case, it resulted in multiple articles claiming rates were higher on the week when in fact they were lower.  And now they're a bit lower again today!

Things could certainly change next week as there's a big slate of important economic reports on tap.  In general, stronger economic data pushes rates higher and vice versa.  In addition to the data, we'll get an updated policy announcement from the Fed on Wednesday afternoon.  This always has the potential to move markets/rates--especially coming off the volatile response to their latest announcement on March 20th.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds and borrowers caught a break today, as rates dropped following a mixed GDP report.  My pricing (not rate) improved over .25%, helping a couple of clients get lower rates.  While it's too early to call this a downward rate trend, today's action is certainly encouraging.  I'm locking loans closing in 30 days, content to float those with more time. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Bonds are enjoying a little rally today despite a much than expected GDP print.  If you are seeing improved pricing today, i would recommend you go ahead and lock in the gains.   Only loans i would float are ones that you can wait til Monday and lock on a shorter term which offers slightly better pricing. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Nice follow through this morning providing a opportunity to Lock any loans that are closing in the next 15 days.  -Al Hensling

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.25-4.375%
  • FHA/VA - 4.0%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.00% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.875-4.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general

  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.

  • Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad.  The stronger the data, the more rates could rise, while weaker data could lead to new long-term lows.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.