Mon, Feb 5 2018, 5:40 PM
Yes, I'm going to call a 13bp gain in 10yr yields an insane rally, because who would have logically conceived of such a thing in the current market? ...
Mon, Feb 5 2018, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates caught a break today, moving back near last Thursday's levels as bonds (which underlie rates) benefited from today's extreme market vol...
Mon, Feb 5 2018, 9:48 AM
Granted, my commentary is decidedly focused on bond markets--particularly as they impact MBS and the mortgage market. Over the years, I've seen that ...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 7:53 PM
I have a lot of great thoughts and analysis about today's market movements. Most of those were disseminated via MBS Live throughout the day--especial...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 7:13 PM
If you thought yesterday was bad for mortgage rates , you're probably not going to be a big fan of today either. And since today is the end of a week,...
Fri, Feb 2 2018, 8:28 AM
Just in case you haven't witnessed the multiple previous examples of the once and future king of economic data falling on deaf ears (relative to its f...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 5:08 PM
The first day of a new month always holds opportunities and risks for rates. Investors who were compelled to hold certain positions through yesterd...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates are in big trouble . Whatever you've read about the current spike so far today, you'll probably need to double it after today's bond ma...
Thu, Feb 1 2018, 10:11 AM
The title is a trick question --at least if you've read almost anything else I've written in the recent past. If today is your first time though, we...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 4:12 PM
Stay skeptical about easy answers in financial news! Here's a tremendous example. Much has been made of the stock market being on the edge of a ma...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 2:56 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold steady today, on average (some lenders were slightly better while others were slightly worse) despite a more upbeat eco...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen a...
Wed, Jan 31 2018, 8:31 AM
Despite a fair amount of focus on last night's State of The Union speech in the news, it was a complete dud in terms of bond market movement. These...
Tue, Jan 30 2018, 5:06 PM
After yesterday saw yields break above the previous ceiling in 10yr yields (2.66-2.67) with gusto, anything other than an equally decisive movement ba...
Tue, Jan 30 2018, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates continued just slightly higher today. While it wasn't the worst day they've had in terms of movement, it arrives as rates were already ...
Tue, Jan 30 2018, 9:35 AM
Bonds enter the 2nd day of the week without any major reprieve in the selling trend. That trend kicked into a higher gear yesterday, prompting us to ...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 5:26 PM
In a perfect world, massive sell-offs in bond markets would have logical explanations--the sort of tidy cause and effect relationships often seen fo...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates are in trouble . This will come as no surprise to regular readers. For the past few weeks, rates made several successive runs up to the...
Mon, Jan 29 2018, 10:40 AM
"Perfect storm" is an overused term, and there other, more colorful descriptors I'd use to describe the storm that's been battering bond markets for...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 4:59 PM
Last week, I noted that the current week wasn't likely to see bond yields rise because we'd just had 3 straight weeks of clear moves higher. We don...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 2:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, bringing them up to yet another 9-month high. Underlying bond markets ended the week in roughly the same shape as l...
Fri, Jan 26 2018, 9:56 AM
Today's chart is complicated at first glance, but I'll walk you through it step by step. I'll also cover it in today's Huddle video for MBS Live me...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 5:23 PM
There were several exciting lead changes in today's game for bond markets. The early inning were devoted to parsing the European Central Bank's (EC...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates improved modestly today, bringing them back in line with Wednesday afternoon's best levels. After underlying bond markets overcame vola...
Thu, Jan 25 2018, 8:49 AM
Corrections are one of the trading themes we frequently discuss when there is broader momentum in either direction. In its simplest form, a correcti...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 4:27 PM
Yesterday was nice while it lasted. Against a sea of redness, it stood out like a beautiful green shoreline. Unfortunately, that shoreline turned ...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 3:34 PM
After taking just one day off from the prevailing move higher, mortgage rates were back at it today, heading back to the worst levels in more than 9 m...
Wed, Jan 24 2018, 9:56 AM
Today is shaping up to be one of those days where we start off with a large overnight bond market movement followed by a rush of attempted explanatio...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 3:17 PM
Mortgage rates finally managed to move lower in a small but meaningful way today--something they haven't done in more than 2 weeks! During that time, ...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 4:27 PM
It took 3 consecutive days of pushing into the weakest levels in more than 3 years for bond markets to figure out how to rally by more than a token ...
Tue, Jan 23 2018, 8:49 AM
Perhaps you're already well aware that Haruhiko Kuroda is the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) , and a Ben Bernanke of sorts when it comes to bringing...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 5:31 PM
Bonds ended in the green today, albeit just barely . Normally that wouldn't be a bad thing, but today's example leaves a bit to be desired.
I sho...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates pushed up to yet another 9-month high today--something that's become all too common in the past few weeks. Just as troubling is the fac...
Mon, Jan 22 2018, 9:05 AM
Markets closed on Friday with a government shutdown still in limbo. Ostensibly, that meant the reaction in stocks and bonds wouldn't be fully seen un...
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 7:27 PM
Today's sell-off brought 10yr yields to their highest levels since the middle of 2014 (when they were on their way down following the taper tantrum....
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 6:24 PM
Mortgage rates remained at 9-month highs today, with most lenders in worse shape than yesterday. In the morning, the sky hadn't yet fallen, the averag...
Fri, Jan 19 2018, 9:13 AM
Yesterday's recap is a good read if you didn't happen to catch it. Here's a link.
In general, there are 2 things going on with rates right now. ...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 4:49 PM
Well... at least things are interesting . The winter holidays are always a challenge from an analytical and market-watching standpoint. It seems li...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 3:45 PM
It's Thursday, which means Freddie Mac released its weekly update on mortgage rates . This is typically not that big of a deal because mortgage rates ...
Thu, Jan 18 2018, 9:37 AM
Is the decades-long bull market in bonds over? I imagine we'll be talking about this sort of thing every time yields spike to multi-month highs and...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 4:42 PM
Last week's bounce at a ceiling of 2.60% (twice, essentially) was enough for some DEFENSIVE hope. In other words, it introduced the possibility of th...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates were only moderately higher today, but the move was enough to officially bring them to the highest levels since the Spring of 2017. In ...
Wed, Jan 17 2018, 9:07 AM
There's bad news and not-quite-as-bad news. Longer-term bonds (the stuff we care about) are either in a modest, steady, long-term uptrend (in rate)...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 5:00 PM
Had it not been for a fairly abrupt sell-off in stocks (the first big day of losses in 2018, and the biggest open-to-close sell-off since late August ...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Most lenders were just slightly lower/better this morning, but mid-day market weakness prompted several of them...
Tue, Jan 16 2018, 9:36 AM
Don't get too excited. Despite a few close calls and false alarms, bonds managed to close below last Tuesday's highs for three days in a row. Now th...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 8:00 PM
Mortgage rates caught a break yesterday by moving lower for the first time this week. They arguably caught a break again today by not moving any highe...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 7:58 PM
I laughed out loud today--something I rarely do when reading typed words--after MBS Live cornerstone Sung Kim quipped "thank God China is buying today...
Fri, Jan 12 2018, 8:34 AM
A majority of market participants (or their mentors) were steeped in the extraordinary inflation/rate volatility of the late 70's and early 80's. As ...
Thu, Jan 11 2018, 4:50 PM
Yesterday morning's news regarding China potentially buying fewer (or selling) US Treasuries has been a big talking point. While most pundits and eve...
