Fri, May 11 2018, 8:34 AM
Are rates in the process of confirming a top or are they simply in some sort of consolidation period before continuing higher to the scarier level...
Thu, May 10 2018, 4:32 PM
With two big-ticket events on tap for bond markets today, there was always a chance that they'd go our way and that we'd see some decent gains as a ...
Thu, May 10 2018, 4:05 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back today, following a weaker-than-expected report on inflation and a relatively strong 30yr bond auction. Rising inflation me...
Thu, May 10 2018, 9:40 AM
Today begins with a modestly weaker CPI (consumer price index) report generating an impressive surge in volume. In fact, the volume in the minute fol...
Wed, May 9 2018, 7:11 PM
Today's key event for bonds was the 10yr Treasury auction because it served as an acid test for investor demand amid relatively uncertain times. Un...
Wed, May 9 2018, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as bond markets braced for impact from several upcoming events. Bonds dictate rates, and as investor demand for bond...
Wed, May 9 2018, 9:36 AM
Most of April had been bad for bonds. It was like the beginning of yet another storm in a series that had battered the fixed-income coastline since l...
Tue, May 8 2018, 5:30 PM
2.95% in 10yr Treasury yields had become a bit of a battleground last week. Even in the week prior, there were two big bounces there (3 if you coun...
Tue, May 8 2018, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates are still technically in a sideways holding pattern, but today's move took them slightly higher inside their recent range. The average ...
Tue, May 8 2018, 9:16 AM
Yesterday's recap labeled the trading day as an official 3rd day of the weekend due to an absence of volume or volatility. The underlying culprit (ap...
Mon, May 7 2018, 4:36 PM
This happens from time to time on Mondays. Either due to a holiday overseas or some other distraction, a data-free Monday ends up being a complete du...
Mon, May 7 2018, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates have been exceptionally sideways for nearly 2 weeks now--this after hitting the highest levels in more than 4 years on April 25th. As a...
Mon, May 7 2018, 9:33 AM
Longer-term rates have been in a bit of a holding pattern after deciding not to smash through the highest levels in more than 4 years at the end of Ap...
Fri, May 4 2018, 7:02 PM
After the week's biggest dose of intraday volatility this morning, rates ended up almost perfectly unchanged. Charts suggest an uncommonly high amo...
Fri, May 4 2018, 6:38 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways today, on average, but only after the dust settled on some morning volatility. The big jobs report was released at 8:30am...
Fri, May 4 2018, 9:46 AM
With modest gains intact this morning (even after NFP), we're finally in a position to say that all hope may not officially be lost for bonds. That w...
Thu, May 3 2018, 4:38 PM
With the 2.95% level in 10yr yields being the most important pivot point for bonds at the moment, drifting sideways to close out the day around 2.94...
Thu, May 3 2018, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back today--that is, they bounced back DOWN after rising slightly yesterday. The improvement came courtesy of strength in Europ...
Thu, May 3 2018, 8:54 AM
There has been at least some amount of correlation between stocks and bond yields in 2018 inasmuch as the major lows for stocks in Feb and April coi...
Wed, May 2 2018, 4:27 PM
We'll give Friday a pass because it was technically still part of the 2-day correction leading back from the 4-year highs in the 10yr Treasury yield s...
Wed, May 2 2018, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. The average lender was quoting the same rates as yesterday, but with sligh...
Wed, May 2 2018, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and t...
Wed, May 2 2018, 9:09 AM
There's a fair amount on the calendar today from an objective standpoint. The 3 headliners are ADP Employment, the Treasury refunding announcement an...
Tue, May 1 2018, 5:10 PM
The Day Ahead discussed the year's previous closing high of 2.95% in 10yr yields. It hadn't come into play too terribly much until the past 3 session...
Tue, May 1 2018, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher on average today, although a few lenders were better characterized as "unchanged." In either case, if you're shopping for ...
Tue, May 1 2018, 9:13 AM
2.95% was the closing high for 10yr yields back in late February. While we saw 10s move as low as 2.935 yesterday, that seemed to be a product of mon...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 4:36 PM
April was a bummer of a month for the bond market. Actually, it was decent through the 11th, but it got ugly quickly after that--especially during th...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 3:48 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today , which keeps them right in line with last week's lowest levels. That sounds pretty good! Unfortunately, any tim...
Mon, Apr 30 2018, 9:42 AM
This week brings several top tier economic reports as well as a Fed announcement. Combine that with today's month-end trading process, it makes for a...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 6:53 PM
Bonds managed to scratch out a 2nd day of "recovery" leading back from the highest yields in more than 4 years seen on Wednesday. If you don't want t...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 6:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again today , bringing them back in line with Monday's levels for the average lender. That said, rate sheets have been very...
Fri, Apr 27 2018, 9:19 AM
The abrupt sell-off that began on 4/18 has been a bit frustrating from an analytical standpoint due to an absence of clearly-delineated motivations. ...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 5:00 PM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that we were likely to see a token bounce on one of the next 3 days, but that it didn't necessarily guarantee furt...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates caught a break today , as underlying bond markets made it back into Tuesday's territory. Refreshingly, lenders were willing to set rate...
Thu, Apr 26 2018, 10:07 AM
Today is shaping up to be the first push back against the current selling trend. By current, I mean the sharper, shorter trend of the past 7 days a...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 4:32 PM
The recent rate drama continues unabated. Today was the 6th day of heavy selling in bond markets, bringing yields within striking distance of the 2...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 3:32 PM
Mortgage rates had another rough day as they continued moving up into new 4-year highs. Unlike the extremely mild and uneventful day-to-day changes se...
Wed, Apr 25 2018, 9:33 AM
It will come as no surprise that I feel the level of discussion about 10yr yields being at 3% is overdone at best, and misguided at worst. Actually, ...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 4:56 PM
After yesterday's somewhat hopeful leveling-off in bond yields, today served to drive home the point that hope is futile and only bad things are goi...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved somewhat higher again today, thus pushing them farther into the highest levels in more than 4 years. This isn't the result of any...
Tue, Apr 24 2018, 10:25 AM
You won't be able to avoid "3% 10yr Treasury Yields" this week. For starters, 10's have already hit 3.0033% today, but simply being close seems to ha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 5:16 PM
Have you ever seen someone randomly do something fairly awful/hurtful/aggressive, offer no explanation or apology, and then just leave the scene? Tha...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved markedly higher today, officially leaving them at new 4-year highs. The only other time they've earned that distinction this year...
Mon, Apr 23 2018, 9:03 AM
I'm going to be surly this week about the way the bond market is covered in the financial media. Many of the articles to which I take exception will ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 5:14 PM
10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from ...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 2:18 PM
Let's clear one thing up before we begin. Freddie Mac, MBA, and Ellie Mae all noted new 4-year highs in mortgage rates this week. They are all technic...
Fri, Apr 20 2018, 9:20 AM
Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime conso...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 5:03 PM
The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday, yiel...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates jumped higher today as bonds continued a move away from narrow Springtime range seen in March and early April. Bonds dictate rate movem...
Thu, Apr 19 2018, 9:51 AM
We've been increasingly wary about a potential break of the recent consolidation/rally trend --the one that saw yields move sideways to slightly stro...
