Mortgage rates held fairly steady today with the average lender unchanged to just slightly higher on the day.  That's fairly good news considering yesterday marked the lowest rates in more than a week.  Despite these facts, anyone searching the internet for mortgage rate news today is likely to encounter convincingly-worded articles claiming that rates are HIGHER this week.  So which one of us is lying to you?

In fact, no one is lying.  This is something that runs the risk of happening on any given Thursday when Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey.  For whatever reason, their survey methodology only solicits responses on Monday-Wednesday.  Moreover, based on years of review of Freddie's surveys and actual lender rate sheets, the heaviest weight is given to Monday and almost no weight is given to Wednesday.  As such, yesterday's nice drop in rates didn't register and last week's starting point was set artificially low because Monday was the best day of the week.

Long story short, Freddie's survey is basically telling you that this past Monday's rates were higher than the Monday before that.  If that's useful to you, there you go.  For those who want to know what's going on today, the average lender is quoting rates that are just a bit lower than last Monday's or last Friday's for that matter.  The improvement is small enough that it would only effect the closing cost side of the mortgage rate equation (as opposed to the "note rate" itself), but it is an improvement nonetheless.

Loan Originator Perspective

My pricing barely budged from Wednesday's, as bond markets posted small losses through early afternoon.  Not losing ground was actually a victory today, as strong durable goods data might well have sparked a sell-off.  I'm still locking loans closing within 30 days. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.25-4.375%
  • FHA/VA - 4.0%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.00% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.875-4.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general

  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.

  • Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad.  The stronger the data, the more rates could rise, while weaker data could lead to new long-term lows.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.