Mortgage rates may have managed to remain mostly flat last week, but they did so near their highest levels in several weeks. After moving up at a moderate pace today, they're now at the highest levels in just over a month. After being as low as 3.375-3.5% for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed quote in early September, the average lender is now roughly 0.5% higher in rate. That equates to a $84 change in monthly payment on a $300k loan (or $28/mo for every 100k financed).
Today's rate spike came courtesy of news relating to Brexit over the weekend. Investors were on guard against the possibility that the negotiation process would NOT be extended. If that had been the case, rates might have moved lower today instead. But now that an extension looks like a strong possibility, rates were free to move in the other direction. This is an important time to be paying attention to interest rate momentum because if rates rise too much more from here, some would see that a sign that rates are transitioning into a more sustained upward trend. We'll definitely discuss that in greater detail if there's more evidence for it in the coming weeks.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets sold off Monday, as fears of a disorderly Brexit process waned. We're rapidly approaching levels last seen in mid-September, and the trend is clearly not our friend. I've been locking early, and will continue to do so. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED -3.75-3.875%
- FHA/VA - 3.375-3.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375-3.5%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.