Wed, Aug 2 2023, 3:47 PM
Yields Briefly Hit 8 Month Highs
Bond yields spiked to their highest levels in more than 8 months this morni...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 12:36 PM
Moments after bonds closed yesterday, Fitch downgraded the credit rating for the U.S. government. Few would disagree that the political criticism (by...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 9:19 AM
The weekly applications report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) wasn’t positive, but it was certainly consistent. MBA said its Market Compo...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 8:26 AM
“If you have no interest in banking, you are not a loan.” (Best said out loud to a 6th grader.) Cutting edge humor aside, this morning I head to Orlan...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 5:52 PM
For all intents and purposes, the average 30yr fixed rate at the average lender is as high as it's been since November 2022. The number itself as far...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 5:27 PM
Explaining Today's Inexplicable Weakness
If the bond market is well understood to be heavily "data dependent...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 10:05 AM
Overheard last night at a bar here in Austin, Texas: “It’s hotter than the hinges to the gates of hell.” Not so hot, as residential lenders know, are ...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 9:22 AM
The 8:20am CME Open is such a relevant event for the bond market sometimes that it has its own entry in our knowledge base. On any given morning, it'...
Mon, Jul 31 2023, 4:27 PM
Uneventful Start to What May be an Eventful Week
When there are multiple examples of important events that c...
Mon, Jul 31 2023, 3:54 PM
As the new week begins, mortgage rates are almost perfectly in line with those seen on Friday afternoon. Putting that in context, last Thursday and F...
Mon, Jul 31 2023, 12:05 PM
After the initial recovery from the Great Financial Crisis, and again after the Fed began to taper asset purchases at the end of 2013, there were two ...
Mon, Jul 31 2023, 9:49 AM
“Yesterday I completed a chore I’ve been putting off for four months. It took me 20 minutes. I will learn nothing from this.” That sums up a lot of my...
Fri, Jul 28 2023, 4:43 PM
What to Make of This Week's Movement
Friday ended up being a slightly stronger session for bonds, but not in...
Fri, Jul 28 2023, 12:18 PM
Core PCE is often referred to as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) has been one of the only few economic repo...
Fri, Jul 28 2023, 10:56 AM
Mortgages are only part of our lives, right? I only know what I read online, although Abraham Lincoln once said, “Don’t believe everything you read on...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 4:17 PM
The Fed hiked its policy rate yesterday and now today, mortgage rates jumped quite a bit higher. While there are already headlines drawing a connecti...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 1:26 PM
Pending home sales pulled out of a three-month spiral in June but with only a fractional increase from May. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 10:54 AM
“I’m trying to organize a hide and seek tournament, but good players are really hard to find.” Good LOs (trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courte...
Thu, Jul 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Yesterday's closing headline and most condensed recap of Powell's press conference was simply: "data dependence continues." Indeed it does! This mor...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 4:41 PM
As we discussed yesterday, it was entirely possible that today would bring a rate hike from the Fed that coincided with mortgage rates moving LOWER. ...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 4:38 PM
Needle Threaded. Data Dependence Continues
In today's post-rate-hike press conference, Fed Chair Powell mana...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand been expanding at a modest moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 10:50 AM
While there's always a chance that any of the year's 8 scheduled Fed announcements will thread the needle, today's installment is just as likely to pr...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 10:40 AM
Today's Fed meeting announcement is the last one until September 20. Mortgage rates, of course, are prone to moving around even without the Fed’s dire...
Wed, Jul 26 2023, 8:31 AM
Mortgage application volume during the week ended July 24 was down slightly from the prior week. Static interest rates did little to stir the refinanc...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher for the average lender at some point over the past 2 days. Some lenders bumped rates yesterday afternoon and t...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 4:29 PM
Just a Bit More Pre-Fed Positioning
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for the bond market despite st...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 2:18 PM
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices posted an annual decline in home prices for the second straight month in May while the Housing Price Index pr...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 12:32 PM
After the last CPI report sent rates back down to the prevailing summertime range, we figured we'd be waiting until tomorrow's Fed day for the next bi...
Tue, Jul 25 2023, 10:40 AM
“I am part of the 4 percent who want to ban the teaching of math. We are a quarter of the country, and we will not be ignored! And that number is grow...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 5:05 PM
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates for the average lender--at least until the very end of the business day. Mortgage lenders prefer to...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 4:52 PM
Slightly Weaker Momentum, But No Change in The Bigger Picture
Today's most notable market movement surrounde...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 10:57 AM
Early last week, we shifted away from waiting on additional rally momentum from the previous week's rally and into a holding pattern ahead of this wee...
Mon, Jul 24 2023, 10:11 AM
Some things are fortuitous. For example, if Sting hadn’t been in Montserrat windsurfing when Dire Straits was recording “Money for Nothing,” would we ...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 4:09 PM
After rising somewhat sharply yesterday, mortgage rates managed to find their footing on Friday's market session. Bonds typically face more volatilit...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 4:05 PM
Boring, Placeholder of a Day
Now that the riveting headline has your attention, you may be dismayed to learn...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 11:02 AM
Isn’t ice cream a great food!? In fact, I worked in an ice cream plant in my early 20s. Did you know that Moose Tracks ice cream was named for a minia...
Fri, Jul 21 2023, 9:46 AM
It's a summertime Friday in the bond market, so anything can happen. Bonds could undertake a huge rally or sell-off without any clear connection to a...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 5:28 PM
Not Too Soft, Jerome
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but up until the AM econ data, yields were no h...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 5:02 PM
Some of today's news says mortgage rates are much lower than last week. And here I am telling you they're higher. Who should you believe? Easy one! ...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 4:33 PM
Almost everyone has said it or heard it: Existing Home Sales are in the toilet because there's no inventory and there's no inventory because no one wa...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 11:55 AM
Watching the bond market in real time can be stressful if you work in a highly rate-sensitive industry. There's a tendency to get caught up in the in...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 10:16 AM
Ever see the movie “Cocoon”? Is there an X-rated version? Seven of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas over the past year are in Florida. The Census Bu...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates may have spiked to the highest levels in roughly 8 months two weeks ago, but they fully recovered as of last Thursday. Since then, ver...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:07 PM
Working Our Way Back to Powell
The last Fed meeting in June wasn't a huge market mover in and of itself, but...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 3:55 PM
The rate of both construction permitting and housing starts retreated from their May levels last month. The significant increase in estimated starts ...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:51 AM
After bonds rallied hard last week, EU bonds began to rally harder. This was most noticeable in the current week where 10yr Bund yields fell all the ...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:07 AM
Think mortgage math is complicated? Many in the nation are focused on air conditioning. Why is it measured in tons? It harkens back to the days of usi...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 9:35 AM
Applications for refinancing rebounded last week from the previous week’s holiday-related slowdown but purchase applications slid lower. The Mortgage ...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 4:33 PM
Mixed Reaction to Data. Range Remains Intact
European bonds set the tone in the overnight session after a no...
