Mon, Feb 25 2019, 8:57 AM
When you hear “Midwest” what comes to mind? Missouri? Illinois? What about “Mideast?” Some place a long way from Missouri! “Rob, have you heard that t...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 7:23 PM
As recently as January 10th, Jerome Powell unequivocally stated that the Fed's balance sheet wind-down was on auto pilot. In other words, they weren'...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 6:12 PM
Mortgage rates are most directly affected by the day to day movement in the bond market. It's interesting to consider that bonds improved quite a bit ...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 9:56 AM
If you're not familiar with these terms, you'll need the following definitions for today's commentary: hawkish/dovish.
The Fed is a key ingredient i...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 8:53 AM
In the good news category, we can all knock “lumber prices” off the list as a hindrance to builders. Prices are down 25% in the last year. Is it “easi...
Fri, Feb 22 2019, 8:20 AM
Fannie Mae is predicting a notable slowdown in the growth of the U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2019. They have downgraded their earlier forecas...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 4:48 PM
Although today brought the week's most anticipated line-up of economic data as well as overnight headlines on US/China trade agreements, the biggest m...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates may be close to their lowest levels in more than a year, but they were slightly higher versus yesterday. Yesterday's rates were close e...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 11:29 AM
Existing home sales fell again in January although the decline was a minor one compared to the 6.4 percent drop in December. The National Association ...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 10:05 AM
A 16-basis point drop to 5.01 percent in the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was given only partial credit for a sizable uptick in the r...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 8:58 AM
“Writing about music is like dancing about architecture.” A clever quote about differences which reminded me that there are differences between the na...
Thu, Feb 21 2019, 8:29 AM
If you're just joining us, we've been talking quite a bit in recent weeks about a consolidation range/trend in the bond market. This refers to a seri...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 5:04 PM
One of the most interesting parts of today's Fed Minutes release was their characterization of the market's surprise at December announcement. At be...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates finally broke from their recent "back-and-forth" pattern of the past 7 business days and moved lower for the 2nd day in a row . Althoug...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 11:45 AM
The gap in homeownership rates between white Americans and racial and ethnic minorities has persisted for years with the largest gap among black famil...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 9:18 AM
Yesterday, I mentioned that it was rare to see short-term momentum technicals consolidate in the center of their "overbought vs oversold" range. Thi...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 8:24 AM
Watch out for spam emails asking for your phone number. Seems like they are trying to get past the two-factor authentication that sends a six-digit co...
Wed, Feb 20 2019, 8:14 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said mortgage application volume rose for the first time in five weeks during the week ended February 7. MBA's ...
Tue, Feb 19 2019, 5:17 PM
The range may be breaking! Well, one of the ranges we've been tracking may be breaking, as long as tomorrow sees bond markets hold the gains they saw...
Tue, Feb 19 2019, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, making it the 7th straight business day where they've moved in the opposite direction from the previous day. This ...
Tue, Feb 19 2019, 10:33 AM
The Housing Market Index (HMI) continues to recover from the plunge it took in November and December when it dropped an aggregate of 12 points. The Na...
Tue, Feb 19 2019, 9:12 AM
For all of the potential market movers that anyone can discuss so far in 2019, we really haven't seen any concerted effort to take yields higher or lo...
Tue, Feb 19 2019, 8:53 AM
Where’s John Mellencamp when you need him ? Lenders in rural areas know that over half of U.S. farm households lost money farming in the past few year...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 3:43 PM
Since Retail Sales rocked markets yesterday, perhaps bonds would be interested in responding to economic data again today? This question seemed to h...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 3:13 PM
Mortgage loan delinquencies were down from the third quarter of 2018 in the fourth quarter. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the improvemen...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 3:01 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, marking the 6th day in a row where they've reversed course versus the previous day. This is the sort of beh...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 9:53 AM
Rates were at long term highs in early November 2019. Several global economic risks were beginning to swirl at the same time. These included a slowd...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 9:42 AM
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) reported solid financial results for both the fourth quarter and the entirety of the 2018 fiscal year on Thursda...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 9:04 AM
Huh? Radian was recently in takeover talks ? I only know what I read in the newspapers! Sometimes I wonder if everyone isn’t in M&A talks to one degre...
Fri, Feb 15 2019, 8:19 AM
The perceptions, expectations, and plans of prospective homebuyers appear to be undergoing a transition according to results from the most recent Hous...
Thu, Feb 14 2019, 5:22 PM
While we have not yet seen figures from the Census Bureau for December let alone January, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is reporting a surge ...
Thu, Feb 14 2019, 5:18 PM
Of all the reports silenced by the government shutdown, Retail Sales was probably the most missed. It didn't help that December is a rather important...
Thu, Feb 14 2019, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates recovered today after rising to the highest levels in a week as of yesterday. The improvement followed a much-weaker-than-expected Reta...
Thu, Feb 14 2019, 8:31 AM
Perhaps it wasn't their fault, but several top tier economic reports up and left us during the government shutdown. We knew we'd see them again at so...
Wed, Feb 13 2019, 6:18 PM
At first glance, this morning's weakness was all about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most widely-followed inflation report. In order to make a ...
Wed, Feb 13 2019, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates hadn't changed much over the past few business days, even though they arguably should have moved a bit higher yesterday. That made toda...
Wed, Feb 13 2019, 11:40 AM
A total of 8.8 million households bought homes in the two years preceding the most recent American Housing Survey (AHS). The survey, sponsored by the ...
Wed, Feb 13 2019, 9:17 AM
Amazon accounts for nearly 50% of the ecommerce activity in the United States. With that kind of delivery service, it isn’t hard to see why malls are ...
Wed, Feb 13 2019, 8:48 AM
This morning brings the week's first major economic report in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--one of the biggest inflation reports. Infla...
Wed, Feb 13 2019, 8:14 AM
Mortgage applications have now fallen in six of the last eight weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its seasonally adjusted Market Compo...
Tue, Feb 12 2019, 5:18 PM
It's hard to say exactly where stocks and bonds would be today absent the news from yesterday night regarding a possible shutdown deal. Both sides of...
Tue, Feb 12 2019, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged yet again today, although the average lender was charging microscopically higher fees compared to yesterday. The...
Tue, Feb 12 2019, 11:41 AM
An asset bubble can burst, or it can develop a slow leak, and float more or less gradually back to normal levels. The National Association of Realtors...
Tue, Feb 12 2019, 10:12 AM
According to CoreLogic, loan performance continues to improve on a national basis, with delinquencies dropping more than 1 percentage point over the 1...
Tue, Feb 12 2019, 9:46 AM
In the shorter-term, there's nothing too interesting about the past few weeks of trading. Relative to the highs and lows set in the first 3 weeks of ...
Tue, Feb 12 2019, 8:56 AM
From Twitter: “When self-driving cars become mainstream, dead old people will occasionally just arrive places.” Morbid humor aside, will it really hel...
Mon, Feb 11 2019, 4:26 PM
I have to stretch to make a day like today interesting. As I'm fond of doing, I could easily label this one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of...
Mon, Feb 11 2019, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates held their ground fairly well today, despite the fact that underlying bond markets were weaker. Bond market weakness is associated with...
Mon, Feb 11 2019, 8:57 AM
When I grow up, I want to live…next to the airport? Usually, airports are there before people move in around them, and then the residents all complain...
Mon, Feb 11 2019, 8:53 AM
The two key fiscal issues at the moment are the trade deal with China and the expiration of temporary government funding at the end of this week. Bet...
