Mon, Oct 26 2020, 10:57 AM
The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present. Vendor M&A is rampant (the latest being First American acquiring Ser...
Mon, Oct 26 2020, 10:36 AM
We knew that bonds would be forced to accept more volatility in October, if for no other reason than September's progressive and ultimately complete a...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 6:26 PM
Another week, another glut of news articles claiming mortgage rates are at all-time lows. While no one is intentionally trying to deceive you, the new...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 3:49 PM
Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries?
Bonds are in the throws of an extended ...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:46 AM
The contribution made to household wealth by homeownership is underlined in ATTOM Data Solutions' third-quarter U.S. Home Sales Report . The company s...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:34 AM
The number of FHA and VA loans in forbearance rose slightly last week, however, the overall numbers of forborne loans fell nationally by 11,000. Black...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 10:11 AM
In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even...
Fri, Oct 23 2020, 9:49 AM
Let me state for the record that I am not a robot, although I often seem to be asked to check a box on certain websites by… robots. This article , how...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 4:56 PM
Thursdays are special days for mortgage rate aficionados--or they can be anyway. That's when the weekly mortgage rate survey from Freddie Mac is relea...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 3:53 PM
Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain
Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative ...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 11:41 AM
Existing home sales rose again in September and are now blowing the doors off last year's numbers. The National Association of Realtors® says sales of...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 11:13 AM
The refinancing share of originations increased again in September, rising 2 points to 58 percent of all loans. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 10:16 AM
There are several ways to look at "the range" when it comes to post-covid trading levels in the bond market. There are several ways to look at "the b...
Thu, Oct 22 2020, 9:16 AM
Purchase mortgage originations are expected to hit a new record high of $1.54 trillion next year. That forecast, which would be an increase of 8.5 per...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 4:32 PM
Rates are appreciably higher than they were last week or indeed any time in past 4 weeks. That's surprising news to those laboring under misapprehensi...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 4:25 PM
Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green
It's safe to say the bond market found its footing tod...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 11:04 AM
The most recent Fannie Mae's Lender Sentiment Survey focuses on the complexities of lending to the condominium market. The company stresses that this ...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 10:53 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says there was little change in mortgage application activity during the week ended October 16. MBA's Market Co...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 9:40 AM
There have been reasons to fear a momentum shift in bonds for several weeks now. Here's how we discussed it at the beginning of October:
"It's neve...
Wed, Oct 21 2020, 9:13 AM
Want some guidance? “If you get a loan at a bank, you’ll be paying it back for 30 years. If you rob a bank, you’ll be out in 10 years. Follow me for m...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 4:41 PM
It began last week. It was subtle--so subtle as to pass largely unnoticed. But the gentle drift toward slightly higher rates has taken bigger steps so...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 4:32 PM
Bearish Bond Trend Continues
Looking back at MBS or Treasuries over the past few weeks reveals a clear termi...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 12:04 PM
Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) used the annual convention and expo of the Mortgage Bankers Association to announ...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 11:10 AM
Residential construction resumed its upward trend after a brief pause in August. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Developmen...
Tue, Oct 20 2020, 9:25 AM
It was fun and easy to get caught up in (or spoiled by) the recent ultra-narrow range in the bond market. The boundaries of that range were .62 and ....
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 3:43 PM
For some unknown reason, there were additional articles over the weekend touting " all-time low mortgage rates." Underpinning these alleged rates is p...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 3:42 PM
Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started out weaker and looked lik...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 1:31 PM
While applications for new home purchase mortgages jumped in September, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects only modest changes in the Sept...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 11:24 AM
Pressure is mounting for the bond market. After a period of intensely calm, narrow trading throughout September, 10yr yields quickly moved to challen...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 10:33 AM
For only the second time in its 35-year history, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) topped 80 thi...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 10:31 AM
There were approximately 7.5 million second homes in the U.S. in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available. This is 5.5 percent of the na...
Mon, Oct 19 2020, 8:45 AM
Fifteen days until the election! How many days would it take you, or the company that employs you, to save up $11 million? In my discussions with CEOs...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 5:03 PM
Yesterday, we discussed why rates are not actually at all-time lows. But rates are whatever they are. They're relation to previous lows doesn't really...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 4:04 PM
MBS Defy Odds as Bond Bulls Fail For 3rd Straight Day
After failing back to back attempts to retake the rece...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 11:42 AM
Admittedly, this is less of a "day ahead" at this point and more of a "day in progress." Nonetheless, we can discuss the lay of the land as we gear u...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 10:30 AM
Last week Black Knight reported that the beginning of October saw a decline in the number of active forbearance plans of 649,000 or 18 percent as many...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 9:40 AM
The pandemic is endangering the credit histories of at least 30 million Americans and possibly threatening the shelter status of many of them. The Mor...
Fri, Oct 16 2020, 9:06 AM
What’s more important, spending money on the latest iPhone, or taking care of your body? Every Thursday we receive Initial Jobless Claims statistics, ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 4:21 PM
Many of today's mortgage-related headlines are touting "new all-time lows," but there are significant caveats. The biggest caveat would likely be the ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 3:54 PM
Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range
For a second straight day, 10yr yields ...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 12:09 PM
Although the housing market continues to show strength, Freddie Mac economists say there are increasingly troubling signs in the larger economy. The t...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 12:04 PM
When I grow up, I want to live in… Estonia? If you need a break, and are thinking about leaving the U.S., take a gander at some highly-ranked work fro...
Thu, Oct 15 2020, 9:59 AM
From 2011 through the middle of 2016, the European economy, monetary system, and policy landscape had an extreme amount of influence over volatility a...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 4:44 PM
If you're shopping for a purchase mortgage and if you'd previously received quotes from one of the slower moving lenders back in late July or early Au...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 4:35 PM
Bonds Start Strong But MBS Struggle to Keep Up
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond market. ...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 10:52 AM
Inflation is one of the basic building blocks of bond yields. A bond is a loan... an agreement for you to give me a lump sum of cash today and for me...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 9:39 AM
I really wanted to mix things up today so decided to send this commentary out from the other side of the dining room table this morning. Yippee! Speak...
Wed, Oct 14 2020, 9:34 AM
The volume of mortgage applications dipped slightly last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of th...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 4:56 PM
Mortgage Rates have been exceptionally calm recently. The only major exception has been the implementation, delay, and re-implementation of a new fee ...
Tue, Oct 13 2020, 4:36 PM
Bonds Start Strong After Playing Defense Last Week
Last week was clearly a defensive shift for the bond mark...
