Thu, Sep 24 2015, 12:43 PM
Bond markets pressed into their strongest territory since the late August flight-to-safety this morning. 10yr yields made it as low as 2.081 before p...
Thu, Sep 24 2015, 7:32 AM
So far this week, we've really only had one major piece of economic data in the form of Existing Home Sales on Monday. Today we'll have three such re...
Thu, Sep 24 2015, 5:24 PM
Bond market movement over the past few days certainly isn't ALL about the VW news, but I've reluctantly come to accept just how much of a role it play...
Wed, Sep 23 2015, 12:47 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape. Global markets were shedding risk after weaker Chinese manufacturing data. But the gains w...
Wed, Sep 23 2015, 7:32 AM
Far too much is made of the connection between stocks and bonds. So let's make some more of it, shall we?
Seriously though, leaning on this 'stoc...
Wed, Sep 23 2015, 4:37 PM
During all but the first few hours of the overnight session, US bond markets were under pressure today. It wasn't too terrible though. The initial m...
Tue, Sep 22 2015, 7:33 AM
To be sure, with mortgage rates where they are, 'sideways' isn't necessarily such a bad thing. From a market-watching perspective, however, we're qui...
Tue, Sep 22 2015, 4:35 PM
European market levels and the global market considerations inspired by news out of Europe served as the driving forces behind much of today's bond ...
Tue, Sep 22 2015, 1:35 PM
The overnight momentum, fueled by global risk-aversion, has only gathered steam in the domestic session. After the first half of the day, Treasuries ...
Mon, Sep 21 2015, 7:33 AM
With all the build-up to last week's FOMC Announcement, and the fairly fast-paced market movement that followed, what will we do now for excitement? ...
Mon, Sep 21 2015, 5:49 PM
If it seems like corporate debt has been an increasingly hot topic for me/us over the past few years, that's because it has been. 2014 was a record ...
Mon, Sep 21 2015, 2:21 PM
It was a rough morning for bond markets as Treasuries have really only moved in one direction since opening in Europe . Losses were quite livable dur...
Fri, Sep 18 2015, 10:47 AM
If we wanted to do as little as possible to overcomplicate yesterday's Fed news, we might focus on the fact that the Fed took their greatest strides y...
Fri, Sep 18 2015, 7:32 AM
What just happened?
The Fed did some justice to the notion that they would talk tougher about an October or December rate hike if they didn't hike...
Fri, Sep 18 2015, 5:42 PM
Today gave markets a chance to continue reflecting on the realities of yesterday's FOMC Announcement. The Fed broke new ground by including the globa...
Thu, Sep 17 2015, 12:39 PM
You've come a long way, baby. I don't remember when we first started incessantly focusing on the September Fed meeting as the deciding factor in the...
Thu, Sep 17 2015, 7:33 AM
More than any recent event--more than any silly old NFP report--today's FOMC events can and will move markets in a big way. It's not that markets are...
Thu, Sep 17 2015, 5:50 PM
Some folks thought the Fed would hike today and others were pretty sure they wouldn't. The hike camp was the minority according to most surveys and...
Wed, Sep 16 2015, 7:32 AM
It's pretty simple. 2015 is just like 2012-2013 , but replace the taper tantrum with the rate hike anxiety. Apart from that, things look eerily sim...
Wed, Sep 16 2015, 5:20 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session with a small corrective move back toward lower yields but flat-lined at 2.26 (10yr yields). Selling pressu...
Wed, Sep 16 2015, 1:28 PM
What is there to say about a day that has been so flat and uninteresting--especially compared to yesterday's craziness? Treasuries have essentially r...
Tue, Sep 15 2015, 10:06 AM
Financial markets exuded a distinct lack of inspiration yesterday, not unlike a concert audience when the opener is a band they've never heard of . S...
Tue, Sep 15 2015, 6:42 PM
Today saw a good, old-fashioned pre-Fed "lead off." Or perhaps that should be a BAD lead off, considering bond markets lost considerable ground. Whe...
Mon, Sep 14 2015, 12:48 PM
Bond markets were moderately strong overnight , both at home and abroad, but the gains left Treasuries and MBS well within the narrow range that has ...
Mon, Sep 14 2015, 7:33 AM
I heard a rather excitable radio personality refer to this week's FOMC meeting as the "most important central bank meeting in the history of monetary...
Mon, Sep 14 2015, 5:27 PM
It was a tediously calm Monday for bond markets, with one or two exceptions. The first would be that the overnight trading session did see a moderate...
Fri, Sep 11 2015, 12:20 PM
At yesterday's close, bond markets were once again pushing the upper limits of the pre-Fed range. As I discussed this morning , bond markets are ci...
Fri, Sep 11 2015, 7:33 AM
Everyone knows the Fed is considering hiking its target rate for the first time in 9 years , bringing it up from all-time lows for the first time in ...
Fri, Sep 11 2015, 4:38 PM
"What is the matrix?"
This could easily have been typed by an inquisitive bond market as it sought to better understand the mysteries of its own ex...
Thu, Sep 10 2015, 12:09 PM
Bond markets have been under modest pressure today with the focus again being on corporate debt issuance. Equities markets have played a supporting r...
Thu, Sep 10 2015, 7:33 AM
I was getting ready to write something for today's headline along the lines of "econ data merely a sideshow for supply." The point would have been th...
Thu, Sep 10 2015, 5:04 PM
Even as stock markets have only managed to recover half of their losses from yesterday, longer-maturity Treasuries have nearly retraced the entire m...
Wed, Sep 9 2015, 7:33 AM
One of the noticeable themes on the MBS Live dashboard yesterday was that of MBS ' outperformance .' In other words, MBS were holding steady to sligh...
Wed, Sep 9 2015, 5:41 PM
Today's trading session began with bonds in only slightly weaker territory. The overnight session brought general pressure from stronger global equit...
Wed, Sep 9 2015, 1:34 PM
It's the same old story for MBS: Treasuries are getting hit hard by supply pressure, both from fairly epic levels of corporate bond issuance and the r...
Tue, Sep 8 2015, 12:08 PM
NFP Friday saw bond markets make a weak attempt to break an extended sideways range. Today's trading activity has quickly ferried yields and prices ...
Tue, Sep 8 2015, 7:33 AM
Market participants had high hopes for last week's data. It stood a good chance to help inform the consensus on the Fed's upcoming policy announcemen...
Tue, Sep 8 2015, 5:31 PM
It was an exceptionally flat day for MBS with Fannie 3.5s holding between 103-24 and 103-27 for the entire session. More than 90% of today's trades...
Fri, Sep 4 2015, 7:20 AM
We've now made it through NFP week without having any "pre-NFP lead-off." That's the pattern we occasionally see where bond markets will quickly snow...
Fri, Sep 4 2015, 6:16 PM
There are no 2 ways about it: NFP was a non-event. Not only did it produce far less of a reaction when compared to other instances of NFP Fridays, it...
Fri, Sep 4 2015, 1:05 PM
The frustrating thing about today is that we can't really know if NFP came in at just the right levels to avoid stirring the pot too much, or if mar...
Thu, Sep 3 2015, 7:33 AM
Labor Day deserves its name on Wall Street and in Washington. It's hard to explain, but there's definitely some sense of "getting back to business" ...
Thu, Sep 3 2015, 6:08 PM
Miraculously (and sarcastically) bond markets were little-changed overnight. The first cues for movement came from the ECB's press conference where D...
Thu, Sep 3 2015, 1:09 PM
We're now far enough into the final pre-NFP day of the week to safely observe yet another instance of range-bound zigging and zagging . In other wor...
Wed, Sep 2 2015, 11:22 AM
By coming in at 190k vs a median forecast of 201k, today's ADP Employment data essentially abstained from strong comment on Friday's NFP. Because of ...
Wed, Sep 2 2015, 8:13 AM
Let's consider some facts. Not only did most of August see rates converging on the same micro range as yesterday (discussed in Day Ahead ), but ther...
Wed, Sep 2 2015, 5:52 PM
Another swing and another miss for today's economic data. It had an opportunity to kick start what stands a good chance to be a fairly big move in mu...
Tue, Sep 1 2015, 12:07 PM
Bond markets started the overnight session in better shape , already bouncing back from yesterday's weak closing levels. Data in China and Japan hel...
Tue, Sep 1 2015, 8:50 AM
US bond markets have an increasingly clear plan heading into the first 2 weeks of September: trade a narrow, consolidating range, centered on well-t...
Tue, Sep 1 2015, 6:35 PM
Today was a classic "inside day," meaning that the entire range of trading took place inside yesterday's trading range. As far as domestic hours ar...
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