Fri, Jun 19 2015, 7:33 AM
Good old 2015. January was quite nice for fans of low rates. The hotly anticipated ruling from the European Court of Justice on QE was about to be h...
Fri, Jun 19 2015, 3:50 PM
Without too much regard for European bond markets or Greek headlines (despite what you might have heard), US bond markets were stronger this morning. ...
Thu, Jun 18 2015, 11:42 AM
Following yesterday's FOMC events, bond markets rallied back in line with recent low yields. With the rally taking place in the afternoon, Asian and ...
Thu, Jun 18 2015, 7:32 AM
Who's reacting to whom? We know that Europe is the primary source of upward pressure on rates over the past two months. We also know the Fed's rat...
Thu, Jun 18 2015, 4:17 PM
It's getting to be quite a miraculous thing--the extent to which market participants have been attempting to manipulate every little Greek headline....
Wed, Jun 17 2015, 12:50 PM
Should I lock or float? Should I be advising clients to lock or float? Is the Fed going to help or hurt rates?
2 of these 3 common pre-Fed que...
Wed, Jun 17 2015, 7:34 AM
Market participants and pundits alike knew that the Fed wouldn't hike rates at the April meeting. Even then , that meeting served as the starting po...
Wed, Jun 17 2015, 4:42 PM
Today turned out to be a fun little diversion for US traders. It's as if they were turned loose to play in the sandbox without the oversight of their...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 12:16 PM
Europe has been in the driver's seat throughout the day as far as domestic bond markets are concerned. While Treasuries were doing fairly well as the...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 7:33 AM
Let's see... What can we talk about other than tomorrow's FOMC events? I sprinkled Fed references into headlines as early as last week because, apar...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 4:54 PM
Nice rally today. 10yr yields hit their lowest levels since June 5th and MBS hit their 'roll-adjusted' highs over the same time frame. Gains were in...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 12:17 PM
The overnight and early domestic sessions were both strongly positive for bond markets. A more substantive Greek debt impasse kicked off the overni...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 7:33 AM
This is one of the biggest weeks of the year. The main reason for that is Wednesday's series of FOMC events. At every other meeting, the Fed adds ...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 6:21 PM
Markets were abuzz --relatively speaking--with overnight news that the latest hopes for a Greek debt deal were dashed over the weekend. This was the...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday was great! While we could poke holes in motivation for such a big rally by pointing out that it began from the weakest levels in 8 months...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 5:25 PM
Due to the timing of today's weakness and the necessity of a few alerts on MBS Live , the mid-day commentary was out later than normal. By the time ...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 2:22 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory , following a pull-back in European bond markets overnight. The tenor would soon change as the the ru...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 12:49 PM
There's a nice rally underway today, with 10yr yields down 6.2bps and Fannie 3.5s up just over 3/8ths of a point. The underlying motivation is an eve...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 7:32 AM
Every time we have a big, nasty sell-off --not the garden variety 15-20bps over a few days, but kind that takes 60bps higher in several weeks and sti...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 5:24 PM
Given the pace and scope of recent bond market weakness, there are more than a few traders that have open bets on rates moving higher--aka "shorts." ...
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 7:33 AM
It's been a while since we've had a good, old-fashioned MBS chart . There's no particular reason for that. It's just that Treasuries have been and ...
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 5:26 PM
Another day, another chance for bond markets to continue their selling spree. It began in a bad way, no matter when you woke up . Asian markets onl...
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 1:20 PM
The financial world is abuzz yet again with Greek debt deal headlines. And yet again, they are almost completely meaningless . Before you say to yo...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 12:56 PM
The pain continues for bond markets, as does the phenomenon of movement being driven by the unseen hand . In other words, there hasn't been any sign...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 7:34 AM
The most striking features of last month's trading levels were the clearly defined consolidations in rates, both at home and abroad. Not only were th...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 5:31 PM
On an intraday basis, trading levels in Treasuries and MBS hit their weakest levels of the year today. The biggest moves of the day happened at 8:...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 12:43 PM
Bond markets were mixed overnight with European yields rising slightly and US yields falling slightly. This could be chalked up, rather simply, to th...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 7:34 AM
The European-led move lower in yields that began in early 2014 was like nothing we've seen in more than a decade. In terms of the market momentum it...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 4:54 PM
Thanks for reading, this has been my attempt to write a headline that made absolutely no one want to click and read the story. But facts are facts, a...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 7:35 PM
If we went back to the beginning of June and asked ourselves "where do we think 10yr yields would be on Friday if Draghi doesn't commit to maintaining...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 7:25 AM
NFP day is great. Nothing causes more widespread speculation on how a certain piece of economic data will report and how markets might react. Someti...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 1:43 PM
Bond markets tanked after NFP this morning. This sort of thing is to be expected when payrolls print 280k vs a 225k forecast (and a 201k ADP print ...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday was a bad day. If you need to revisit it, or if you happened to knock yourself unconscious the first time or two you fell out of your chai...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 5:25 PM
Most of today's trading activity was a function of previous trading--at least as far as the domestic session was concerned. If we count the overnight...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 1:03 PM
At the end of this morning's commentary, I discussed the possibility that the past few days have been an over-correction to May's month-end strength, ...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 7:07 AM
By the time you read this, things may already have gotten serious. The ECB announcement is at 7:45am Eastern, and although global markets are highly ...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 5:37 PM
If you missed it, or are otherwise looking for a recap on why bond markets got crushed today, here it is . Nothing materially changed from that up...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 1:00 PM
This morning's commentary said " things get serious ," and that we could well expect to depart the recent range in a big way . Now, we are. 10yr yie...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 7:34 AM
On some occasions, we look ahead to big-ticket events like central bank announcements and NFP reports with more anticipation and anxiety than they des...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 5:20 PM
Bond markets were in bad shape right from the outset today. By the end of it, 10yr yields had fully traversed THE range laid out in this morning's ...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 1:50 PM
In terms of the event calendar, today was supposed to be quiet. One of the wild cards laid out in this morning's commentary was an unexpected head...
Mon, Jun 1 2015, 7:34 AM
Last week helped the month of May recover a few shreds of its dignity. As hard as it is to believe, it was the first week in 2015 where each day's cl...
Mon, Jun 1 2015, 5:33 PM
Welcome to the 1st half of 2015. This is the 6 month period where European interest rates defied even the most bullish expectations after Europe bega...
Mon, Jun 1 2015, 1:39 PM
With corporate issuance subsiding somewhat and month-end tradeflows providing steadier demand, the last week of May proved to be an eye of the storm. ...
Fri, May 29 2015, 7:33 AM
Just yesterday morning, I noted that bond markets may be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for May. Indeed, things have been going well enoug...
Fri, May 29 2015, 5:30 PM
It came right down to the wire . The best 3pm closing level for 10yr yields was previously seen on May 1st at 2.117. We hovered near those levels f...
Fri, May 29 2015, 1:15 PM
Today has quickly become the 3rd day of exceptionally calm trading relative to a heretofore tumultuous month. The even-keeled vibes began right fro...
Thu, May 28 2015, 12:12 PM
After the last visit to May's weakest levels (last Wednesday morning), MBS and Treasuries have been in a fairly linear trend back toward stronger lev...
Thu, May 28 2015, 7:33 AM
Here we are in the last week of May and things finally seem to be going our way (knock on wood) with respect to bond markets putting some more consist...
Thu, May 28 2015, 5:39 PM
There's 'month-end' and then there's 'month-end.' In a general sense, this entire week can be referred to as month-end as far as bond markets are c...
MBS Market Alerts
