Fri, Aug 14 2015, 4:42 PM
MBS prices are cutting a beautiful (or ugly, in terms of the implication) "Z" on the chart today. Prices were higher to start the morning and moved...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 2:32 PM
Mortgage rates were just slightly higher on average for a third straight day. Much of this week was spent focusing on the effects of China's deci...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 11:30 AM
So far, the trading day has gone as you would expect it to go if you agreed with the premise in the morning commentary . Namely, without Chinese c...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Chinese currency devaluation had quickly grabbed almost every available top news headline by yesterday evening. Yet while the rest of the world was...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 6:47 PM
The headline is the recap. There's not much more to it than that. Ever since China stepped in to stem the tide of currency weakness yesterday aftern...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as the recent volatility in global markets subsided. Treasury yields and mortgage rates both benefited from...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Most of this morning's day ahead was written in a speculative manner on July 24th HERE . On that day, I closed with:
Despite all the Fed rhetoric...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:15 PM
Let's keep it simple tonight, because it really is pretty simple. It's all about China still--perhaps with an assist from a weak 10yr auction.
Chi...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 5:44 PM
Mortgage rates were lower at first today, but most lenders sent out negative reprices in the afternoon, bringing rates back to unchanged levels. ...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 1:19 PM
Global markets' courtship phase with China's currency devaluation continued benefiting Treasuries overnight. While there was a slow, steady move back...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 12:59 PM
Treasury yields are at their lowest--and MBS at their highest--levels since early June. For 10yr Treasuries specifically, it wouldn't take more than ...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 7:33 AM
There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the afternoon's 3yr Treasury auction is the lease relevant of the week. Against ...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 6:14 PM
Mortgage rates dropped quickly today, bringing many lenders back to quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.875% for top tier scenarios. The m...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 5:57 PM
The Asian, European, and North American trading sessions were all dominated by news that China would devalue its currency. There's much more to tha...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 8:21 AM
There's no question that things have been going well for bond markets recently--at least for the parts of the bond markets that we care about. The lo...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 5:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, erasing the modest improvements seen on Friday. There wasn't much movement in the secondary mortgage ...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 5:37 PM
Today's first significant source of inspiration for bond markets came in the form of comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer. While he stuck to the same...
Mon, Aug 10 2015, 1:08 PM
Today has been all about yield curve steepening . That means that longer-lasting bonds have been doing worse than shorter term bonds. For instance,...
Fri, Aug 7 2015, 7:33 AM
NFP day is fun. It's one of those days where things can change so much and so quickly in its immediate wake, that it really doesn't make much sense ...
Fri, Aug 7 2015, 7:25 PM
Mortgage rates were surprisingly calm today , especially in light of the fact that the big jobs report was released this morning. This report has ...
Fri, Aug 7 2015, 6:49 PM
Today's almost perfectly flat (vs last month and expectations) NFP provided a perfect opportunity to see what markets had been afraid of and/or hopefu...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 10:52 AM
We expected to see some sort of consolidation of the late July bond rally this week. That's a fancy way of saying that markets would probably level-...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 9:39 PM
It was quite a nice pre-NFP Thursday for bond markets. Trading was uneventful in our favorite sort of way where the gains begin early and losses ne...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 8:01 PM
Mortgage rates made up some of their recently lost ground today, moving slightly lower in concert with falling stock prices. Bonds (which include...
Thu, Aug 6 2015, 7:33 AM
The Wednesday before NFP always has at least the ADP numbers to provide volatility potential. It also frequently has ISM Services data as was the cas...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 11:40 AM
It looks like the nail is in the coffin for the pre-NFP rally potential. There was some small chance today (emphasis on 'small') that economic data...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 7:33 AM
To be fair to the Wednesdays before NFP, sometimes they get serious and sometimes they don't. As always, the determining factor is whether there is e...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 6:21 PM
Mortgage rates continued their retreat from recent lows for a 2nd straight day after this morning's data suggested the service sector was at its s...
Wed, Aug 5 2015, 6:21 PM
Yesterday afternoon's weak momentum (inspired by comments from Fed's Lockhart) carried over into the overnight session. Additional losses were contai...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 11:41 AM
It's common to see a pre-NFP consolidation in bond markets. This refers mainly to the Monday and Tuesday of NFP week, especially if the Monday is NOT...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 7:33 AM
Come Wednesday, we will have entered the final approach to Friday morning's NFP release as ADP and ISM Non-Manufacturing data are likely to set the to...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 7:26 PM
After hitting the best levels in just over 2 months yesterday, mortgage rates bounced moderately higher today. The move brings them back above ...
Tue, Aug 4 2015, 7:24 PM
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is a pragmatic and reasonable member of the FOMC. He doesn't consistently grind an axe in the same way that sev...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 12:44 PM
There's that phrase again: "global growth concerns" --that ridiculously broad concept that speaks to all of the more negative "what ifs" surrounding ...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 7:33 AM
At times like this in bond market history, the collective psychology is akin to the cliche ne'er-do-well from a book or movie who has finally come i...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 6:08 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today , adding to an already impressive streak of improvement that began in mid-July. Much of that improvement has ...
Mon, Aug 3 2015, 6:02 PM
There were a few good years in the middle of the financial crisis recovery where inflation data just didn't matter. Various economic reports could in...
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 12:28 PM
Today's market mover came out of left field, and in a big way. The Employment Cost Index is typically a non-event, having only moved markets noticeab...
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 9:02 PM
Get out your calendar. Flip, swipe, or glance back at May 29th. That's where we have to go to see mortgage rates any lower than they are today....
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 8:58 PM
This morning's Employment Cost Index came out of left field with sobering news for anyone counting on a 2015 Fed Rate hike. Fed Fund Futures (which m...
Fri, Jul 31 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday's recap mentioned a 'farewell' to low short term rates despite longer term rates 'faring well.' This is a reference to the major changes th...
Thu, Jul 30 2015, 11:34 AM
Bond markets came into the domestic session in slightly weaker territory owing largely to losses that occurred right at the start of the overnight ses...
Thu, Jul 30 2015, 7:33 AM
The direction of the trend in rates (or "bond markets") varies depending on the time frame in question. For instance, looking back to the 1980's, rat...
Thu, Jul 30 2015, 4:51 PM
As of mid-July bond markets seem to have put their foot down with respect to the relationship between long and short term rates. With the economic ...
Thu, Jul 30 2015, 3:08 PM
Mortgage rates were very close to unchanged despite market volatility surrounding the release of today's GDP figures. GDP can occasionally cause a ...
Wed, Jul 29 2015, 11:37 AM
Bond markets have continued taking measured steps back from the strongest levels in nearly 3 weeks seen on Monday. So far, today's selling pressure...
Wed, Jul 29 2015, 7:33 AM
Although Pending Home Sales will be out this morning at 10am, and although that's fairly interesting data in its own right, today's broader market foc...
Wed, Jul 29 2015, 6:23 PM
The Fed made a few token changes to its policy statement today, but as expected, no overtures for an impending rate hike. At least that wasn't the ca...
Wed, Jul 29 2015, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates had an exceptionally boring day despite the presence of the Fed Announcement. Major communications from the Fed (which include ann...
Tue, Jul 28 2015, 11:24 AM
Bond markets pulled back overnight on a combination of global stock market stability and European data. Selling pressure remained this morning as c...
