Thu, Aug 11 2016, 9:41 AM
In July 2012 and July 2016, 10yr yields visit to all time lows was cordoned-off fairly neatly by yields in the 1.50-1.52 neighborhood. We've been t...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:59 PM
Coming into today, bond markets were amped up. UK 10yr yields hit new all-time lows yesterday. German 10yr yields were close to hitting all-time l...
Thu, Aug 11 2016, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates bounced higher today , after 2 solid days of improvement. In the bigger picture, rates are still closer to the lowest levels of the pas...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 9:04 AM
First off, let's cover the huge drop in MBS prices overnight. Fannie 3.0s, for instance, closed at 103-29 and then began today at 103-23--all this de...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 5:12 PM
Bonds strong overnight with more help from Europe
10yr Auction strong this afternoon with massive foreign support
1.52-1.62 range in 10yr yields...
Wed, Aug 10 2016, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates improved again today , bringing them back in line with the lowest levels of the month. Considering that today is only the 10th day of t...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 9:11 AM
Today's chart has a piece of technical analysis I haven't posted in quite a while, but it's fairly easy to understand and fairly useful. The tech in ...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:59 PM
Bonds were facing headwinds as the week began. Friday had just seen an exceptionally strong NFP. Yields were quickly pushing toward the higher end o...
Tue, Aug 9 2016, 4:07 PM
It was a good day for mortgage rates . After moving higher at a somewhat disconcerting pace last Friday, rates were quickly approaching the upper boun...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 9:12 AM
Bond markets sold-off fairly aggressively following Friday's strong jobs report with 10yr yields moving up nearly 10bps and Fannie 3.0s falling roughl...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 5:30 PM
Today could have been better, but it could have been much worse. After the big spike that followed Friday's jobs report, bonds were on the weaker edg...
Mon, Aug 8 2016, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, extending a sharp move that began on Friday following stronger-than-expected employment data. There are two dis...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 8:29 AM
Granted, by the time most of you read this, NFP will already be out, but I'm not as interested in the initial reaction as I am in how things play out ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 6:39 PM
In the constantly-evolving modern era of market-watching, it's rare to see simply, old-school "cause and effect" relationship between data and market ...
Fri, Aug 5 2016, 5:36 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher at the fastest pace in more than 3 weeks today, following a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Employment Situat...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 8:44 AM
Bond markets are stronger out of the gate this morning as the Bank of England (BOE) followed through on expectations to cut its key policy rate from...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 5:45 PM
This recap won't be too terribly different from the morning update on MBS Live. In fact, that's about all the more complicated today ended up being. ...
Thu, Aug 4 2016, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately lower today, keeping them well-within the dominant range of the past 2-3 weeks. Compared to yesterday, lenders would be...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 9:13 AM
Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today. Bonds can "survive...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:50 PM
Here is the primer on Corporate Bond Issuance for those who need it. I realize it's been linked in almost every post this week, but that's the kind o...
Wed, Aug 3 2016, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates were nominally higher today, though you'd be hard-pressed to find any evidence of that on lender rate sheets. For all practical pu...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 8:52 AM
The 2 weeks leading up to last week's FOMC Announcement (and Bank of Japan too) saw an exceptionally narrow trading range. The 2 weeks before that sa...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 5:24 PM
Bond markets capped a rather unpleasant 2-day move today. While 10yr yields only rose 3.4bps by the close, the losses put us right back in the 1.52-1...
Tue, Aug 2 2016, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today, after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks last Friday. Like yesterday, today's increase was fai...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 8:59 AM
Back in 2015--almost exactly a year ago, actually--the order of the day was determining the timing of the Fed's first rate hike since the financial cr...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 7:01 PM
We were already defensive, to some extent, about the possibility that last Friday's gains were driven by month-end trading needs. Indeed, there was a...
Mon, Aug 1 2016, 5:51 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks last Friday. Today's increase was fairly minimal in the big ...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 8:39 AM
With 10yr yields up only 2.2bps to begin the day and MBS down only 2 ticks, it's interesting to note that initial reaction to the overnight policy ann...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:46 PM
Heading into the close at much stronger levels this afternoon, it would be easy to overlook the fact that bond markets were weaker overnight (followin...
Fri, Jul 29 2016, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed another strong day, falling to the best levels in exactly 2 weeks. Rates were actually set to move higher early this morni...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 9:06 AM
One tricky thing about technical analysis (things like moving averages and other mathematical formulas applied to charts in order to get them to cough...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 4:57 PM
In the bigger picture, today was all about confirming and consolidating yesterday's gains. Trading levels held inside narrow ranges for both MBS an...
Thu, Jul 28 2016, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates fell at the quickest pace in more than a month today as lenders priced-in the market improvements seen after yesterday's Fed Announ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 8:21 AM
First thing's first: "consolidation" refers to a pronounced narrowing of a trading range after an uptrend or downtrend. Consolidations can occur with...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 4:49 PM
Dovish vs Hawkish: This refers to how accommodative the Fed's policy stance might be. Have you ever seen a hawk stare down its prey? That's how a ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, although that's only true for lenders who issued mid-day improvements following the Fed's policy announ...
Wed, Jul 27 2016, 2:01 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Apri...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 9:03 AM
Smart stakeholders in financial markets tend to avoid assuming or asserting that particular trading levels WILL behave in a particular way. There are...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 6:26 PM
Last week saw the yields increasingly hold inside the "new narrow" range between 1.54 and 1.59. Frankly, I felt like it was a long shot for that ra...
Tue, Jul 26 2016, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, and are now effectively at the highest levels in month. That sounds a bit more dire than it is, thoug...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond markets begin another week in the same sideways range, still waiting for the same events to suggest the next concerted effort to take yields hi...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:30 PM
Bond markets did nothing wrong today. There was a bit of red on trade screens (indicating modestly higher yields in Treasuries and lower MBS prices...
Mon, Jul 25 2016, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, making three out of the past 4 days where rates haven't budged and 6 out of the past 7 days where rates...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 9:05 AM
If bond-trading aliens scanned the universe for signs of life and happened upon planet earth this week, they probably wouldn't even send an imperial p...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 5:32 PM
Bond markets had yet another uneventful day with yet another close inside the same old range that's dominated the entire week (with one brief exceptio...
Fri, Jul 22 2016, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates didn't budge , compared to yesterday's, which leaves them in line with their highest levels since late June. A small majority lende...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 8:49 AM
With slight weakness overnight, bonds begin the domestic trading session with their backs against the wall, yet again. The "wall" in this case could ...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 5:51 PM
Any time we watch a sideways range rates with fairly clear technical boundaries, it's only natural to hope that the upper boundary will hold up in the...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 4:59 PM
For most lenders, you'd have to go back to late June in order to see mortgage rates any higher than they were today, although several lenders d...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 9:25 AM
Bond yields hit all time lows. Then they bounced higher. Widespread discussion ensued on the next "key levels" to watch. The goal, of course, is ...
