Thu, Mar 26 2015, 12:02 PM
It's been a strange week for domestic bond markets so far. Just 2 short days ago, bonds were rallying with a seeming disregard for negative cues fr...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 7:24 AM
Will the Fed raise rates? Is economic data sliding? Are stocks and bonds more interested in trading the rate hike or the data? All of these were fa...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 4:51 PM
Ever since bond markets failed to respond positively to yesterday morning's exceptionally weak Durable Goods report, things have been almost exclusiv...
Thu, Mar 26 2015, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates rose rapidly today, almost completely erasing the improvement following last week's Fed Announcement. This is especially ironic consid...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 12:14 PM
Today's trading has offered an interesting development or two. The first was the reaction to the Durable Goods data. It was significantly weaker t...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday morning, we discussed the fact that bond markets needed to make additional gains beyond recent technical floors, or risk sending the signal...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 5:41 PM
It began as just another day in a 12-day winning streak for bond markets that had seen 10yr yields recover 40bps peak to trough. Actually, "just an...
Wed, Mar 25 2015, 3:23 PM
Mortgage rates finally moved noticeably higher today, something they haven't done on 11 out of the last 12 days. Yesterday, I pointed out that su...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 12:17 PM
A frequent topic of interest over the past few years--and especially recently--is the trickle down effect from European bond markets to mortgage rat...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's trading activity, while light, was a welcome addition to Friday's. The two combined to completely reverse the somewhat scary negative bou...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 4:13 PM
While mileage may vary depending on the lender, many are getting close to levels not seen since Thursday Feb 5th, a day before the NFP report that kic...
Tue, Mar 24 2015, 3:14 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today , extending an exceptionally strong 2+ week move back to lower levels after an exceptionally weak 5 week move to 201...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 12:16 PM
Bond markets are having an exceptionally uneventful morning, trading in a narrow, slightly stronger range for the most part. This was the case righ...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 7:34 AM
Following last week's Fed meeting, we had two successive days of subdued trading, each trading "inside" the previous session's range. Bonds can go ei...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 5:38 PM
While there is some variation depending on the part of the country and the school district, this week is Spring Break for quite a few people, and if...
Mon, Mar 23 2015, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, reaching levels not seen since February 9th. This further solidifies the positive move that followed last we...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 12:29 PM
As we head into the afternoon hours, we can look back on an overnight and early domestic session that was largely uneventful and slightly positive ...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 7:29 AM
Considering all the build up to Wednesday's FOMC events, the rally that followed was a breath of fresh air . Not 12 hours later and bonds were alrea...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower on average today after doing an admirable job of holding their ground amid weaker market conditions yesterday. ...
Fri, Mar 20 2015, 4:58 PM
It was a calm and light trading day right from the outset today. Without options expirations, volume would have been the lowest of the year in bond...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 7:34 AM
First of all, there is no true "non-Fed-related" way to look at yesterday's rally. For US markets, it had almost everything to do with the Fed. But ...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 4:24 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher over the course of the day today as financial markets underwent a correction following yesterday's big move lower in ra...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 4:18 PM
It's always a bit disheartening when the day after an awesome rally ends up erasing a good-sized chunk of the gains. That was the case today as the c...
Thu, Mar 19 2015, 1:38 PM
The day began well enough, with only moderate weakness in domestic bond markets. Moreover, 10yr yields were doing a great job of holding on to import...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 12:29 PM
Domestic bond markets began the day in stronger territory, and you can tell they're not too happy about it. If Treasuries and MBS had their way, th...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is Fed day and naturally, that's where 100% of the focus has been and will be. Markets are convinced that the Fed will remove the word "patient...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates plummeted today , relatively speaking. While the average improvement of 0.10% might not look like much at face value, it's the bigge...
Wed, Mar 18 2015, 5:23 PM
Most of what would have been written to recap today's events was accidentally written this morning before they happened. The article I'm referring to...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 7:34 AM
The sense that financial markets are circling the wagons in preparation for tomorrow's FOMC events is palpable. Yesterday ended up being the lightes...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates continue gently lower again today, extending a recent winning streak that's seen improvements on 6 out of the past 7 days. While an...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 4:56 PM
What a boring 3 days! The only thing that's happened for bond markets is an utterly mechanical trend back toward Thursday morning's low yields and/or...
Tue, Mar 17 2015, 1:01 PM
As expected, not much is going on today as the focus remains on tomorrow's FOMC events. Overnight volumes and participation levels were light for the...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 11:00 AM
It's been an uneventful day so far for bond markets, but a noticeably stronger one. The overnight session got thing off to a positive start as Treasu...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 7:34 AM
It's an easy answer to be sure, but this time it's probably the best one. Financial markets, and especially bonds, stand the best chance to be inspir...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 4:24 PM
The most important thing to understand about today's market movements is that by writing this sentence (or reading it, in your case), we've already gi...
Mon, Mar 16 2015, 3:46 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly to begin the week following several weaker-than-expected economic reports. Economic data affects rates by motivating ...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 12:26 PM
In the context of this week's range, today has been well-contained and fairly mild in terms of volatility. After hitting the best levels of the wee...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Time for bond markets to start thinking even more seriously than they already are. 2014 and Jan 2015 were great. No complaints! We rode the epic w...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 4:28 PM
Bond market trading drove home the point that the current week was over today and that it had been over ever since the post-Retail Sales rally failed ...
Fri, Mar 13 2015, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, but remained much closer to the best levels of the week seen yesterday. In general, this week has ser...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 12:55 PM
It's been a mostly good morning for bond markets. The overnight session saw modest gains during European hours, and Treasuries even managed to hold...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 7:34 AM
There have been no significant instances of economic data this week until today. These sorts of things happen, and it's usually Thursday that ends up...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 5:15 PM
Trading levels began the day in better territory this morning after a strong overnight session for Treasuries. It wasn't so much that they gained a...
Thu, Mar 12 2015, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today depending on the lender, but moved just slightly lower on average. This wasn't the case this morning as essentia...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 7:34 AM
The first two days of this week were "nice." They got us back in line with what had been the weakest levels of the year before last Friday. In oth...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 5:08 PM
German Bunds dropped to yet another new all-time low today, hitting 0.193 at one point. The Euro plummeted and stocks sold modestly. All of the ab...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower at a steady pace for most lenders today. The week continues to be slow in terms of domestic events and data, but ...
Wed, Mar 11 2015, 1:21 PM
Today's 10yr auction was pretty good , although it required a bit of weakness leading up to it in order to generate the relatively strong result. Th...
Tue, Mar 10 2015, 12:52 PM
Some magical combination of new QE tradeflows and Greek drama (surprisingly enough) has driven German Bund yields well into new all-time lows today. ...
Tue, Mar 10 2015, 7:34 AM
It ended up being interesting that the focus of yesterday's Week Ahead was the absence of data leaving us with a less obstructed view of traders' inte...
