Mon, May 15 2017, 6:55 PM
Last week ended with the hope that rates were breaking below the uptrend that had been in place since mid-April. Certainly, if we had to judge that...
Mon, May 15 2017, 6:28 PM
Mortgage rates were s teady to slightly higher today, largely maintaining the improvements seen last week. Underlying financial markets were calm and ...
Fri, May 12 2017, 9:21 AM
It's going to be a chart-focused commentary today, because frankly, there's not much to say with words. The bottom line is that this morning's econom...
Fri, May 12 2017, 6:24 PM
Bonds were losing ground clearly and convincingly this week, until this morning's economic data came along. To be fair , we might say that bonds beg...
Fri, May 12 2017, 5:30 PM
Most of the movement in mortgage rates had been slow, steady, and generally unfriendly in recent weeks. Today was a stark exception as rates surged si...
Thu, May 11 2017, 9:36 AM
You've no doubt run across the phrase "the beatings will continue until morale improves." That's not too far from being an apt assessment of an uptre...
Thu, May 11 2017, 6:41 PM
To be fair to bond markets, they might not have needed much help to hold their ground today had it not been for the stronger economic data in the morn...
Thu, May 11 2017, 4:43 PM
It's been slow and steady, to be sure, but mortgage rates finally inched their way up to the highest levels in more than a month today, depending on t...
Wed, May 10 2017, 9:43 AM
Any time rates have been trending decidedly higher (as they have been since mid-April), every day of gains has the potential to become the turning po...
Wed, May 10 2017, 6:46 PM
Bond markets were having a decent enough day during the morning hours. Stocks and European markets were weaker, dragging bond yields lower in a clas...
Wed, May 10 2017, 6:26 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher again today, making it the 13th out of the past 16 business days without an improvement. The situation w...
Tue, May 9 2017, 9:46 AM
Let me take you back--but not necessarily "way back"--to March 2017. Geopolitical risks weren't on the radar yet (no Syria air strike, North Korea th...
Tue, May 9 2017, 6:23 PM
Let's get the caveats out of the way. Bond markets ended the day in slightly weaker territory, and the broader trend remains toward higher yields. M...
Tue, May 9 2017, 2:29 PM
Mortgage rates haven't necessarily moved higher every day recently. For instance, yesterday's rates were unchanged versus last Friday's. But the gener...
Mon, May 8 2017, 9:23 AM
The economic and event calendar is fairly light this week, especially on the first few days. The importance and pace of potential market movers incre...
Mon, May 8 2017, 6:54 PM
We've been tracking an uptrend in yields since they bottomed out in mid April. There was some hope that we would see a firmer ceiling take shape head...
Mon, May 8 2017, 6:12 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today. This is actually quite an accomplishment if you ask the average bond market participant. Mortgage rates...
Fri, May 5 2017, 8:24 AM
Today's chart is essentially the same chart we examined yesterday, but this time the only trendlines are those surrounding the most recent trend. The...
Fri, May 5 2017, 7:12 PM
Today's NFP report certainly could have been damaging for bond markets if it contained a significant revision to last month's low 98k headline. It ...
Fri, May 5 2017, 5:47 PM
Mortgage rates recovered today, moving sideways to slightly lower after losing ground over the past few days. Today's focal point was the Employment S...
Thu, May 4 2017, 9:11 AM
I frequently use the lead-off analogy to characterize financial markets' propensity to start drifting in the direction of their next most-desired di...
Thu, May 4 2017, 7:37 PM
This morning's Day Ahead laid out a case for bonds taking a "lead-off" ahead of tomorrow's NFP data. It's not necessarily about NFP (the nonfarm pa...
Thu, May 4 2017, 7:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, bringing them back in line with the highest levels in nearly a month. That sounds a bit worse than it actually is, ...
Wed, May 3 2017, 8:57 AM
Bond markets are beginning the day in slightly weaker territory after as-expected ADP Employment data and the Treasury Department commented on the p...
Wed, May 3 2017, 5:12 PM
Today's Fed announcement turned out to be a dud . It's getting headline treatment here based solely on street cred. In and of itself, it could scar...
Wed, May 3 2017, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates ended the day relatively close to ' unchanged ,' depending on the lender. That's somewhat surprising considering the presence of severa...
Wed, May 3 2017, 2:02 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February March indicates tha...
Tue, May 2 2017, 9:28 AM
The relationship between stocks and bonds is difficult to speak about intelligently, unless you're prepared to define it in different ways depending o...
Tue, May 2 2017, 4:17 PM
The trading week has been relatively inconsequential so far. That's the best explanation for today's bond market gains. Sure, there are a few anec...
Tue, May 2 2017, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, but remained well inside the narrow range that's been intact for more than a week. For most lenders, that means co...
Mon, May 1 2017, 9:27 AM
It's an action-packed week for global financial markets, with several major motivations to consider. First and foremost, this is the first day of a n...
Mon, May 1 2017, 5:53 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, keeping them in line with the previous 4 business days. This 5-day block stands out from the p...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 10:31 AM
Bond markets are very much on a fence at the moment with respect to short and intermediate trends. There are a few ways we can measure this fence-sit...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 7:18 PM
Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory, with Treasuries following European yields higher in the overnight session. Domestic hours br...
Fri, Apr 28 2017, 2:41 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today, holding onto modest improvements seen yesterday. In many ways, the past 2 days have confirmed that rates are in l...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 9:06 AM
Another day, another chance for bond markets to assess whether they should re-enter the previous 2017 range (or "post-election" range). This is marke...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 6:20 PM
Bond markets have a question. Will we or won't we be heading back into the sideways, post-election rate range? for top tier mortgage rates, the ra...
Thu, Apr 27 2017, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, following a policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). Some investors were concerned the ECB might be...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 9:48 AM
The order of the day and week for domestic bond markets has been and will continue to be the break out from the recently friendly trend toward lower r...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 5:14 PM
Today's main event was the release of the Trump administration's new tax plan. Markets didn't go overboard in their expectations of major revelatio...
Wed, Apr 26 2017, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates were relatively unchanged today, but only after averaging the disparate changes from various lenders. That means some lenders are in mu...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 9:14 AM
For the past 5+ months, any discussion of "the gap" among bond traders could have only referred to the 2.15-2.17 gap created on Veterans Day weekend...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 4:56 PM
With a 2nd day of fairly strong selling pressure in bond markets, the recent trend toward lower rates has been forcefully called into question. ...
Tue, Apr 25 2017, 4:21 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher again higher today, as global financial markets continued reacting to recent geopolitical flashpoints (like the...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 9:09 AM
For bond markets, most of 2017 has been dominated by the "post-election range" (or "the 2017 range," if you prefer) consisting of 10yr yields betwee...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 5:33 PM
Heading into the French election at the end of last week, we knew that Le Pen (the candidate who likely would have helped the bond rally continue) pro...
Mon, Apr 24 2017, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today, and most of the blame goes to the presidential election in France. If you're wondering what European pol...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 9:11 AM
It remains to be seen whether all the hype is justified, but for whatever reason, markets are transfixed by this weekend's French election. Several r...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 5:23 PM
Today was shaping up to be very slow and boring, with bond markets making some inconsequential gains as traders shed risk ahead of this weekend's Fren...
Fri, Apr 21 2017, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher this week as global financial markets braced for volatility surrounding this weekend's French election...
