Thu, Aug 17 2017, 6:01 PM
What do you get when bond markets embark on a snowball rally due to headlines concerning Trump's Economic Advisor Gary Cohn? A delicious "Snow Cohn,"...
Thu, Aug 17 2017, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates fell yesterday in response to a tweet about Trump disbanding his councils of CEOs. Twitter was in play again today . This time around i...
Thu, Aug 17 2017, 10:22 AM
With this morning's econ data already out and having no effect on bond markets, the only other report for the week is tomorrow morning's Consumer Sent...
Wed, Aug 16 2017, 5:28 PM
Today looked like it would be all about waiting for the Fed Minutes to see if there were any surprises. That plan began in fairly good shape, with on...
Wed, Aug 16 2017, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates dropped today after news broke (first rumors, then confirmation via Twitter) that President Trump was disbanding his councils of CEOs. ...
Wed, Aug 16 2017, 9:32 AM
Today's biggest calendar item is the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. The Minutes provide synopsis of the meeting that took place in the 2 days le...
Tue, Aug 15 2017, 4:15 PM
Today was mostly about North Korean de-escalation, and somewhat about stronger economic data. If you haven't heard 43 times already, North Korea grac...
Tue, Aug 15 2017, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as markets reacted to news that North Korea would tactically abstain from launching nuclear weapons at Guam beca...
Tue, Aug 15 2017, 9:08 AM
Geopolitical risk is one of the most intuitive market movers for bonds. Threats of nuclear attacks from North Korea (as well as the rhetorical respon...
Mon, Aug 14 2017, 5:16 PM
Bond markets lost ground today, with all of the weakness arriving during the overnight session. The weakness was driven by a general "risk-on" move...
Mon, Aug 14 2017, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately today as weekend news headlines suggested some measure of de-escalation of nuclear tensions between the US and North Ko...
Mon, Aug 14 2017, 10:32 AM
If you haven't seen/read my primers on various technical analysis topics, they're linked at certain points in the text below, and will be helpful in m...
Fri, Aug 11 2017, 5:59 PM
Bond markets ultimately rallied modestly following today's much-anticipated CPI data. This is a departure from recent norms as the last 3 reports...
Fri, Aug 11 2017, 5:40 PM
Mortgage rates held near the lowest levels since November 2016 today, after a key economic report showed subdued inflation. The Consumer Price Index (...
Fri, Aug 11 2017, 8:28 AM
After a longstanding reign as one of the most meaningful market movers, inflation data became an outcast for most of the recovery from the financial c...
Thu, Aug 10 2017, 4:29 PM
It's hard to appreciate just how different the trading session was for stocks compared to bonds. To be sure, a near 5bp drop in 10yr yields is "nice,...
Thu, Aug 10 2017, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates remained in line with 2017's lows today, despite noticeable improvement in underlying bond markets. Under normal circumstances, bond ma...
Thu, Aug 10 2017, 10:02 AM
In terms of 10yr yields, bond markets have been locked in the same narrow range for a week and half. Even when the range was only 2 days old last wee...
Wed, Aug 9 2017, 6:10 PM
Bonds had already begun the process of rallying in response to geopolitical risk yesterday afternoon. Notably, the headlines hit after the 3pm CME ...
Wed, Aug 9 2017, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates fell to new lows for the year today, following the North Korea nuclear threat headlines. In truth, the preceding sentence gives too muc...
Wed, Aug 9 2017, 10:05 AM
There are several definitions of "pain trade" floating around on the web, and I'm not a huge fan of any of them. The top google hit is particularly b...
Tue, Aug 8 2017, 7:15 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory and continued to lose ground through the early afternoon. After consolidating in extreme fashion...
Tue, Aug 8 2017, 6:50 PM
Mortgage rates moved microscopically lower today, keeping them in line with the best levels in more than a month. The caveat is that there really hasn...
Tue, Aug 8 2017, 10:05 AM
The extent to which inflation-related metrics have come into focus is uncanny relative to just how unimportant they'd been to markets for most of th...
Mon, Aug 7 2017, 5:55 PM
Bond markets began the week in underwhelming fashion, with both MBS and Treasuries ending the day very close to unchanged compared to Friday's latest ...
Mon, Aug 7 2017, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, compared to Friday afternoon's latest levels. Only a handful of lenders responded to strength in bond m...
Mon, Aug 7 2017, 10:08 AM
Last week's NFP was eerily predictable. Either that, or I got lucky.
My thought was that the market had been fairly range-bound and especially d...
Fri, Aug 4 2017, 5:55 PM
The week began on Tuesday, for all intents and purposes. July's "month-end" trading generally took place by last Friday and Monday was left as a mere...
Fri, Aug 4 2017, 5:26 PM
While it was far from a dramatic move mortgage rates ticked slightly higher after today's Employment Situation data, otherwise known simply as "the jo...
Fri, Aug 4 2017, 9:13 AM
My commentary took a bearish turn , essentially saying that bond markets had done what they could to price-in a poor NFP number and that anything out...
Thu, Aug 3 2017, 7:20 PM
I hate to say anything bad about bond market gains. Bond market gains are among a few of my favorite things, after all! I also hope I'm wrong in thi...
Thu, Aug 3 2017, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved just slightly lower today, bringing them to the best levels in over a month for the 2nd time this week. While that sounds somewha...
Thu, Aug 3 2017, 9:05 AM
The longer the post-election trade plays out (in 3 months, it will have been a year!), the flatter it looks. There have essentially been two similar...
Wed, Aug 2 2017, 5:14 PM
The chart in this morning's Day Ahead showed consolidation patterns (lower highs and higher lows) in both German Bunds and US Treasuries. For the l...
Wed, Aug 2 2017, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, keeping them in line with the best levels in just over a month. That means the best-qualified borrowers putting more...
Wed, Aug 2 2017, 9:25 AM
With this morning's ADP data and Treasury Refunding Announcement (lays out the slate of auction sizes for the upcoming fiscal quarter ending on Octobe...
Tue, Aug 1 2017, 4:28 PM
Was it "new month" trading? Or was it a reaction to abysmal sales data from GM? Does it matter if the net effect was a nice move lower for rates? ...
Tue, Aug 1 2017, 3:27 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, matching the best levels in just over a month. Prospective borrowers are increasingly seeing conventional 30yr f...
Tue, Aug 1 2017, 9:53 AM
"Impending breakout" sounds a bit more dramatic than reality may prove to be, but one never can be sure what the future will hold for bond markets. W...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 5:19 PM
Today's economic data consisted only of Chicago PMI (sometimes a decent market mover) and Pending Home Sales (rarely a noticeable market mover). It a...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, despite an absence of improvement in underlying bond markets. Rates typically rise in this scenario, but th...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 9:09 AM
Last Friday's AM commentary had a detailed write-up on the significance of " month-end bond buying ." Here's a link to that, and here's a link to our ...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 6:30 PM
Overnight weakness almost ruined it, but 10yr yields just barely held inside the necessary levels to claim their third straight "inside day." In ot...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 5:16 PM
Mortgage rates were generally flat today, despite improvements in underlying bond markets. Although several lenders did offer price improvements throu...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 10:05 AM
We often talk about the month-end trading environment as relatively more supportive for bond markets--all other things being equal. Reason for this a...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 4:41 PM
This week continues to be all about Tuesday for bond markets. That was the day with the rather violent, inexplicable sell-off that took yields from...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender, but generally held fairly close to yesterday's levels. All this in spite of bond market weak...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 9:40 AM
What is a tradeflow? We have a primer that attempts to answer that question on MBS Live (this one), but even after reading that multiple times, you ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 6:44 PM
Today's focus was understandably on the Fed Announcement, and indeed, most of the movement followed it. But interestingly enough, the biggest volume ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, despite fairly substantial movement in underlying bond markets. Bond prices ultimately do more to ...
