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For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning's PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived.
Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That's only 0.02% higher than yesterday, but yet another long-term high.
As frustrating as it continues to be, there are no convenient scapegoats for the reversal in terms of intraday news/data. Some small case could be made that the day's economic data wasn't exactly rate-friendly, but the timing of the market movement and indicators elsewhere in the market suggest that's a waste of time.
The only irrefutable way to connect cause and effect is to use broad strokes. The bond market is in the midst of a fairly rapid reassessment of the outlooks for Fed policy, inflation, and the supply/demand equation for government debt. Today may have seen some additional volatility due to the mechanics of the month/quarter-end trading environment, but not to the extent that anyone should expect rates to magically fall just because tomorrow is a new month.
A meaningful drop in rates will require one or more of these things:
- Iran war ending and fuel prices dropping
- economic data weakening
- inflation falling significantly and sustainably
There are other things that can help/hurt, but these are the big three at the moment.
| Rate | Points | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
9/30/26
Mortgage News Daily - daily
|
|||
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.60% | -- | +0.02% |
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 7.22% | -- | +0.02% |
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 7.66% | -- | +0.06% |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.85% | -- | -0.02% |
| 30 Yr. FHA | 7.25% | -- | +0.01% |
| 30 Yr. VA | 7.25% | -- | +0.00% |
|
9/24/26
Freddie Mac - weekly
|
|||
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.03% | 0.00 | +0.08% |
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.42% | 0.00 | +0.16% |
|
9/30/26
MBA - weekly
|
|||
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.30% | 0.75 | +0.33% |
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.56% | 1.02 | +0.26% |
| 30 Yr. FHA | 6.97% | 1.18 | +0.35% |
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 7.27% | 0.50 | +0.24% |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.47% | 1.20 | +0.24% |
| Change | 52 Week Range | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | Points | Previous | 1 Year | Low | High | |||
|
as of 9/30/26
Mortgage News Daily - updated daily
|
||||||||
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.60% | -- | +0.02% | +1.23% | 5.99% |
|
7.60% |
|
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 7.22% | -- | +0.02% | +1.33% | 5.55% |
|
7.22% |
|
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 7.66% | -- | +0.06% | +1.38% | 6.10% |
|
7.66% |
|
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.85% | -- | -0.02% | +1.03% | 5.29% |
|
6.87% |
|
| 30 Yr. FHA | 7.25% | -- | +0.01% | +1.20% | 5.62% |
|
7.25% |
|
| 30 Yr. VA | 7.25% | -- | +0.00% | +1.18% | 5.64% |
|
7.25% |
|
|
as of 9/24/26
Freddie Mac - updated weekly
|
||||||||
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.03% | 0.00 | +0.08% | +0.77% | 5.98% |
|
7.03% |
|
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.42% | 0.00 | +0.16% | +1.01% | 5.35% |
|
6.42% |
|
|
as of 9/30/26
Mortgage Bankers Association - updated weekly
|
||||||||
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 7.30% | 0.75 | +0.33% | +0.96% | 6.09% |
|
7.30% |
|
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.56% | 1.02 | +0.26% | +0.86% | 5.48% |
|
6.56% |
|
| 30 Yr. FHA | 6.97% | 1.18 | +0.35% | +0.83% | 5.97% |
|
6.97% |
|
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 7.27% | 0.50 | +0.24% | +0.83% | 6.16% |
|
7.27% |
|
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.47% | 1.20 | +0.24% | +0.94% | 5.23% |
|
6.47% |
|
