Welcome to the last few trading weeks of 2019--3 or them to be precise. After that, the Christmas and New Year holidays will mean we can't trust the last 2 calendar weeks of the month to accurately represent investor consensus. Speaking of investor consensus, that's a big problem at the moment because it's really up for debate.
Bonds surged in August when trade tensions kicked into higher gear. Since then, they've been consolidating and moving gradually back toward higher yields as the more dire economic possibilities have failed to materialize. Last week's placeholder trading sessions left that trend intact as yields failed to break below 1.74% (10yr) or the upwardly sloped trendline at the bottom of the consolidation range.
Now this morning, as markets lurch back to life (both in terms of volume and volatility) following the quiet Thanksgiving week, the bounce is being confirmed even more clearly.
With upside potential for yields getting close to 2.0% (based on the consolidation pattern) and with 10s presently only at 1.85%, we have more to lose than to gain if the typical back-and-forth momentum continues to play out. But after today's "back to reality" trading session, that back-and-forth momentum will have more to do with underlying events and economic data. With that in mind, the week's headliners will be the ISM reports today and Wednesday, and of course Friday's big jobs report. ADP employment can play a key supporting role as well.