Here's What's NOT Moving The Bond Market
Another day, another surprisingly brisk selling spree in the bond market. Unlike several recent examples where the end of a Treasury auction cycle brought some relief for negative momentum, this week's final auction had a slightly negative effect. In the bigger picture, market movers continue to be a strange combination of completely obvious and uniquely enigmatic. We've given plenty of attention to that list over the past few days, but how about stuff that has been falsely, but widely accused of having an impact? One of the best examples of this (both now and in the past, as it concerns smaller drama) is the composition of voters and non-voters at the Fed.
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Case Shiller Home Prices (JUL Y/Y) 19.9 vs 19.1 prev
FHFA Home Prices (JUL Y/Y) 19.2 vs 18.9 prev
Consumer Confidence 109.3 vs 114.5 f'cast, 115.2 prev
Widespread weakness in Treasuries overnight. Selling accelerated sharply in Europe. 10yr up almost 5bps at 1.54% and MBS down almost a quarter point.
Still weaker but off the weakest levels as heavy selling in stocks creates safe-haven buying demand. 10yr up 4bps now at 1.532 and MBS down only 6 ticks (.19).
positive rebound continued after the last update, but now seeing modest weakness after 7yr Treasury auction. 10yr back up to 1.53 after dipping below 1.52 earlier. MBS are outperforming and are now down only an eighth.