Sideways Victory For Bonds and Rates
We've been tracking both a sideways trend and an uptrend in bond yields for more than 2 months now. The uptrend has been winning (and SHOULD win), but bonds were strong enough today to make a case for a return to the sideways range. With rates near all-time lows, "sideways" is a victory.
11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying
Philly Fed Biz Survey: +27.5 vs -23.0 f'cast, -43.1 prev
Jobless Claims: 1.508m vs 1.3m f'cast, 1.566m prev
Bonds were stronger out of the gate overnight as stocks slumped. Correlation remains extremely high between the two. After a rebound toward higher yields and stock prices, markets reversed course again just before 5am, moving lower into the domestic session. Stocks have bounced slightly since 8am, but bonds are trying to hold their ground with 10yr yields trading near 0.70% vs a ceiling range of .72-.74. MBS are underperforming, but also in positive territory (nearly an eighth of a point).
Treasuries have been steady as stocks recoup a portion of overnight losses. MBS are near their best levels of the day, up an eighth of a point, still, just under 102 for 2.0 coupons.
VERY slow, sideways day for both MBS and Treasuries (albeit sideways at stronger levels). No major change from the last update.