I've been staring at this blank space on my monitor, where I normally put the words for the opening post of the day/week, for about 40 minutes, trying to think of something interesting and meaningful to say about the week ahead.  The space isn't blank anymore after that first sentence, but it might as well be.

Thanksgiving week is a black hole for the bond market.  Activity drops sharply (usually) throughout the week.  Rapidly lower liquidity can give way to counter-intuitive movements at times, and much bigger moves than would otherwise be seen. 

The only major wild card this week will be the fact that it is a very late Thanksgiving, thus making this "month-end" for markets.  Typically, investors have the first day or two of the following week to lock down end-of-November trades.  Instead, they'll need to get that all done by Wednesday.  Few will want to wait until Friday's illiquid half-day.

What does all this mean for us?  Quite a lot of nothing.  Yes, markets may move.  They may even more in a somewhat convincing way, but time and again, we've seen Thanksgiving week moves easily erased at the beginning of December.  In the shorter term, we can play the range (as seen below) and try to take advantage of any obvious moves.  At the moment, the risk continues to be that we've just bounced at 1.74% and are now potentially heading higher.

2019-11-25 open